Kansas City will likely defeat the Raiders on Sunday, capping an impressive 12-4 regular season. Those four losses, however, all came against playoff teams: in New England, in Seattle, in Los Angeles against the Rams, and at home against the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City will have beaten just two playoff teams: the Chargers, and whoever winds up winning the AFC North (the Chiefs went 4-0 against the AFC North, beating Pittsburgh in week 2 and Baltimore in week 14).
Does this mean the Chiefs are less likely to succeed in the playoffs than if, say, they had gone 6-0 against playoff teams and 6-4 against non-playoff teams?
In 2005, the Steelers went 2-4 against playoff teams during the regular season, but went 4-0 in the postseason (with three wins on the road) to win Super Bowl XL.
Meanwhile, the 2011 Ravens did exactly what my hypothetical 2018 Chiefs did: that year, Baltimore went 6-0 against playoff teams and just 6-4 against non-playoff teams. The Ravens defeated the Texans in the Wild Card round before falling to the Patriots in the Division round.
A number of Super Bowl champions performed poorly against playoff teams during the regular season: the 1999 Rams went 0-2, the 2007 Giants went 1-5, the 1980 Raiders went 1-4, the 2011 Giants went 1-3, and the 2005 Steelers and 2012 Ravens both went 2-4. The 2008 Steelers are a Super Bowl champion that had a losing record (3-4) against playoff teams, but went undefeated (9-0) against non-playoff teams.
Where do the Chiefs line up historically? Kansas City is 10 wins above .500 against playoff teams, and 2 wins below .500 against non-playoff teams. Add those numbers together, and the Chiefs get a score of +12. There are 60 teams in the Super Bowl era who finished +12 or higher. The most extreme case belongs to the 2011 Bengals, who went 9-0 against non-playoff teams (+9) and 0-7 against playoffs teams (-7), for a total score of 16 (9 minus -7). The full list, below:
| Team | year | Reg Sea W% | Record vs. PT | Record vs. NonPT | Playoff Record | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 2011 | 0.563 | 0-7 | 9-0 | 0-1 | 16 |
| JAX | 1999 | 0.875 | 0-2 | 14-0 | 1-1 | 16 |
| ATL | 2005 | 0.500 | 0-7 | 8-1 | Miss | 14 |
| KAN | 2013 | 0.688 | 1-5 | 10-0 | 0-1 | 14 |
| PHI | 2009 | 0.688 | 0-4 | 11-1 | 0-1 | 14 |
| SDG | 1992 | 0.688 | 0-4 | 11-1 | 1-1 | 14 |
| SDG | 2004 | 0.750 | 1-4 | 11-0 | 0-1 | 14 |
| SFO | 1996 | 0.750 | 1-4 | 11-0 | 1-1 | 14 |
| STL | 1999 | 0.813 | 0-2 | 13-1 | 3-0 | 14 |
| MIA | 1972 | 1.000 | 0-0 | 14-0 | 3-0 | 14 |
| DAL | 1969 | 0.821 | 0-2 | 11-0-1 | 0-1 | 13 |
| SDG | 1968 | 0.643 | 1-5 | 8-0 | Miss | 12 |
| OAK | 1970 | 0.643 | 0-4 | 8-0-2 | 1-1 | 12 |
| HOU | 2004 | 0.438 | 0-7 | 7-2 | Miss | 12 |
| NOR | 1994 | 0.438 | 0-7 | 7-2 | Miss | 12 |
| KAN | 1979 | 0.438 | 0-7 | 7-2 | Miss | 12 |
| CIN | 1976 | 0.714 | 1-4 | 9-0 | Miss | 12 |
| HOU | 1975 | 0.714 | 1-4 | 9-0 | Miss | 12 |
| MIA | 1991 | 0.500 | 1-7 | 7-1 | Miss | 12 |
| ATL | 1992 | 0.375 | 0-8 | 6-2 | Miss | 12 |
| CHI | 2012 | 0.625 | 2-6 | 8-0 | Miss | 12 |
| BAL | 2017 | 0.563 | 0-5 | 9-2 | Miss | 12 |
| DET | 2016 | 0.563 | 0-5 | 9-2 | 0-1 | 12 |
| BAL | 2009 | 0.563 | 1-6 | 8-1 | 1-1 | 12 |
| PIT | 1976 | 0.714 | 0-3 | 10-1 | 1-1 | 12 |
| MIA | 1975 | 0.714 | 0-3 | 10-1 | Miss | 12 |
| BAL | 2008 | 0.688 | 2-5 | 9-0 | 2-1 | 12 |
| MIA | 2001 | 0.688 | 2-5 | 9-0 | 0-1 | 12 |
| NWE | 1985 | 0.688 | 2-5 | 9-0 | 3-1 | 12 |
| RAI | 1984 | 0.688 | 2-5 | 9-0 | 0-1 | 12 |
| NYG | 2007 | 0.625 | 1-5 | 9-1 | 4-0 | 12 |
| IND | 2001 | 0.375 | 1-9 | 5-1 | Miss | 12 |
| NOR | 1998 | 0.375 | 1-9 | 5-1 | Miss | 12 |
| DET | 2011 | 0.625 | 1-5 | 9-1 | 0-1 | 12 |
| WAS | 1999 | 0.625 | 1-5 | 9-1 | 1-1 | 12 |
| NYG | 1988 | 0.625 | 0-4 | 10-2 | Miss | 12 |
| OAK | 1980 | 0.688 | 1-4 | 10-1 | 4-0 | 12 |
| DET | 2014 | 0.688 | 1-4 | 10-1 | 0-1 | 12 |
| MIN | 1992 | 0.688 | 1-4 | 10-1 | 0-1 | 12 |
| DEN | 1985 | 0.688 | 1-4 | 10-1 | Miss | 12 |
| KAN | 2018 | 0.750 | 2-4 | 10-0 | ?? | 12 |
| SFO | 2013 | 0.750 | 2-4 | 10-0 | 2-1 | 12 |
| PIT | 2010 | 0.750 | 2-4 | 10-0 | 2-1 | 12 |
| SFO | 1998 | 0.750 | 2-4 | 10-0 | 1-1 | 12 |
| NOR | 1992 | 0.750 | 2-4 | 10-0 | 0-1 | 12 |
| MIA | 1990 | 0.750 | 2-4 | 10-0 | 1-1 | 12 |
| NYG | 1989 | 0.750 | 2-4 | 10-0 | 0-1 | 12 |
| NYG | 1993 | 0.688 | 0-3 | 11-2 | 1-1 | 12 |
| CHI | 1990 | 0.688 | 0-3 | 11-2 | 1-1 | 12 |
| KAN | 1968 | 0.857 | 1-2 | 11-0 | 0-1 | 12 |
| OAK | 2016 | 0.750 | 1-3 | 11-1 | 0-1 | 12 |
| TEN | 2003 | 0.750 | 1-3 | 11-1 | 1-1 | 12 |
| WAS | 1986 | 0.750 | 1-3 | 11-1 | 2-1 | 12 |
| DEN | 2012 | 0.813 | 2-3 | 11-0 | 0-1 | 12 |
| NWE | 2011 | 0.813 | 1-2 | 12-1 | 2-1 | 12 |
| OAK | 1976 | 0.929 | 1-1 | 12-0 | 3-0 | 12 |
| SDG | 2006 | 0.875 | 2-2 | 12-0 | 0-1 | 12 |
| BAL | 1968 | 0.929 | 1-1 | 12-0 | 2-1 | 12 |
| CHI | 1986 | 0.875 | 1-1 | 13-1 | 0-1 | 12 |
For Chiefs fans, the 2005 Steelers may be the most inspiring name on this list, but not the most memorable. The easy comparison is to Andy Reid’s first team in Kansas City in 2013: that Chiefs team went 10-0 against non-playoff teams but 1-5 against playoff teams and then lost its first playoff game. The big difference: that Kansas City team had to go on the road, while this Chiefs team should be home for the postseason.