Defining “expectations” is challenging. I don’t have a perfect way, but I do have a simple one: use a linear regression based off of last year’s Pythagorean winning percentage to predict the number of games a team should be expected to win this year. [2]All ties are counted as half-wins. I did just that, and the best-fit formula was:
Year N+1 Wins = 4.23 + 0.472 * Year N Wins
So a 3-win team should be expected to win 5.6 games in Year N+1, a 10-win team is projected at 9.0 wins, and a 13-win team drops down to 10.4 expected wins. If you subtract the number of expected wins from the number of actual wins by the coach in a season, you are left with his number of wins over expectation. You’ll see pretty quickly why this is called the Dungy Index: he fares very, very well in it.
There are many drawbacks to this system. I’ve listed some of them at the end of the post. But as a first pass, this feels like an improvement over looking at raw wins or winning percentage. The table below shows all head coaches who coached 50+ games in the last 80 years. It is sorted by the “Wins over Exp” column. Dungy ranks 3rd on the list, and here is how his line reads: He first was a head coach in 1996 and last in 2008. He coached the Bucs and then the Colts. Dungy coached 208 games, winning 139 of them, for a 0.668 winning percentage. Dungy’s teams won 26.4 more games than you would have expected based on the regression formula. And since someone in the comments would have asked to see a list of wins over expectation per season, I added that to the end of the table, too. The table is fully sortable and searchable, and you can read some fine print at this footnote. [3]A. All coaches were included, but only their seasons since 1933 were counted. So George Halas’ line does not represent his career numbers, but instead his production since 1933. Why 1933? … Continue reading
Coach | First Year | Last Year | Teams | G | Wins | Win % | Win Over Exp | Win Over Exp/S |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Don Shula | 1963 | 1995 | clt-mia | 490 | 331 | 0.676 | 50.7 | 1.54 |
George Halas | 1920 | 1967 | chi | 363 | 240 | 0.661 | 32.6 | 1.09 |
Tony Dungy | 1996 | 2008 | tam-clt | 208 | 139 | 0.668 | 26.4 | 2.03 |
Paul Brown | 1946 | 1975 | cle-cin | 298 | 202.5 | 0.68 | 26.3 | 1.14 |
Bill Belichick | 1991 | 2012 | cle-nwe | 288 | 187 | 0.649 | 26.2 | 1.46 |
Marty Schottenheimer | 1984 | 2006 | cle-kan-was-sdg | 327 | 200.5 | 0.613 | 25.5 | 1.22 |
Tom Landry | 1960 | 1988 | dal | 406 | 252.5 | 0.622 | 25.3 | 0.9 |
Bill Parcells | 1983 | 2006 | nyg-nwe-nyj-dal | 303 | 172.5 | 0.569 | 22.3 | 1.18 |
John Madden | 1969 | 1978 | rai | 142 | 106.5 | 0.75 | 20.7 | 2.07 |
Vince Lombardi | 1959 | 1969 | gnb-was | 136 | 99 | 0.728 | 20.6 | 2.06 |
George Allen | 1966 | 1977 | ram-was | 168 | 118.5 | 0.705 | 20.6 | 1.71 |
Joe Gibbs | 1981 | 2007 | was | 248 | 154 | 0.621 | 20.4 | 1.28 |
Bud Grant | 1967 | 1985 | min | 259 | 160.5 | 0.62 | 19 | 1.06 |
Bill Cowher | 1992 | 2006 | pit | 240 | 149.5 | 0.623 | 17.6 | 1.18 |
Chuck Knox | 1973 | 1994 | ram-buf-sea | 334 | 186.5 | 0.558 | 15.4 | 0.7 |
Tom Coughlin | 1995 | 2012 | jax-nyg | 256 | 147 | 0.574 | 15.1 | 0.94 |
Mike Smith | 2008 | 2012 | atl | 80 | 56 | 0.7 | 14.3 | 2.86 |
Ray Flaherty | 1936 | 1949 | was-naa-cra | 108 | 72 | 0.667 | 14.2 | 1.42 |
Mike Holmgren | 1992 | 2008 | gnb-sea | 272 | 161 | 0.592 | 13.7 | 0.8 |
Mike Shanahan | 1988 | 2012 | rai-den-was | 292 | 167 | 0.572 | 13.5 | 0.71 |
Blanton Collier | 1963 | 1970 | cle | 112 | 77 | 0.688 | 13.3 | 1.67 |
Dan Reeves | 1981 | 2003 | den-nyg-atl | 357 | 191 | 0.535 | 12.5 | 0.54 |
Steve Owen | 1931 | 1953 | nyg | 242 | 147 | 0.607 | 11.7 | 0.56 |
Sean Payton | 2006 | 2011 | nor | 96 | 62 | 0.646 | 11.5 | 1.92 |
Mike McCarthy | 2006 | 2012 | gnb | 112 | 74 | 0.661 | 11.5 | 1.64 |
Marv Levy | 1978 | 1997 | kan-buf | 255 | 143 | 0.561 | 11.5 | 0.67 |
George Seifert | 1989 | 2001 | sfo-car | 176 | 114 | 0.648 | 10.3 | 0.94 |
Jeff Fisher | 1994 | 2012 | oti-ram | 278 | 149 | 0.536 | 10.2 | 0.57 |
Bill Walsh | 1979 | 1988 | sfo | 152 | 92.5 | 0.609 | 9.5 | 0.95 |
John Fox | 2002 | 2012 | car-den | 176 | 94 | 0.534 | 9.4 | 0.86 |
Don Coryell | 1973 | 1986 | crd-sdg | 195 | 111.5 | 0.572 | 9.1 | 0.65 |
Buck Shaw | 1946 | 1960 | sfo-phi | 136 | 83.5 | 0.614 | 9 | 0.82 |
John Harbaugh | 2008 | 2012 | rav | 80 | 54 | 0.675 | 8.9 | 1.78 |
Andy Reid | 1999 | 2012 | phi | 224 | 130.5 | 0.583 | 8.8 | 0.63 |
Chuck Noll | 1969 | 1991 | pit | 342 | 193.5 | 0.566 | 8.8 | 0.38 |
Jimmy Johnson | 1989 | 1999 | dal-mia | 144 | 80 | 0.556 | 8.4 | 0.93 |
Buddy Parker | 1949 | 1964 | crd-det-pit | 188 | 108.5 | 0.577 | 8 | 0.53 |
Jim Lee Howell | 1954 | 1960 | nyg | 84 | 55 | 0.655 | 8 | 1.14 |
Dennis Green | 1992 | 2006 | min-crd | 207 | 113 | 0.546 | 7.9 | 0.61 |
Lovie Smith | 2004 | 2012 | chi | 144 | 81 | 0.563 | 7.7 | 0.86 |
Mike Ditka | 1982 | 1999 | chi-nor | 216 | 121 | 0.56 | 7.7 | 0.55 |
Lou Saban | 1960 | 1976 | nwe-buf-den | 187 | 93.5 | 0.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 |
Bum Phillips | 1975 | 1985 | oti-nor | 159 | 82 | 0.516 | 6.9 | 0.63 |
Mike Tomlin | 2007 | 2012 | pit | 96 | 63 | 0.656 | 6.6 | 1.1 |
Jimmy Conzelman | 1921 | 1948 | rii-mil-dpn-prv-crd | 68 | 35.5 | 0.522 | 6.6 | 1.09 |
Ted Marchibroda | 1975 | 1998 | clt-rav | 170 | 83.5 | 0.491 | 6.5 | 0.59 |
Wade Phillips | 1985 | 2010 | nor-den-buf-atl-dal | 143 | 82 | 0.573 | 6.3 | 0.57 |
John Rauch | 1966 | 1970 | rai-buf | 70 | 41 | 0.586 | 6.2 | 1.23 |
Greasy Neale | 1941 | 1950 | phi | 111 | 65.5 | 0.59 | 5.6 | 0.56 |
Gary Kubiak | 2006 | 2012 | htx | 112 | 59 | 0.527 | 5.2 | 0.74 |
Jim Mora | 1986 | 2001 | nor-clt | 231 | 125 | 0.541 | 5 | 0.33 |
Dick Vermeil | 1976 | 2005 | phi-ram-kan | 229 | 120 | 0.524 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
Bobby Ross | 1992 | 2000 | sdg-det | 137 | 74 | 0.54 | 4.4 | 0.49 |
Chuck Fairbanks | 1973 | 1978 | nwe | 85 | 46 | 0.541 | 4.4 | 0.73 |
Sid Gillman | 1955 | 1974 | ram-sdg-oti | 214 | 115.5 | 0.54 | 4.2 | 0.25 |
Mike Martz | 2000 | 2005 | ram | 85 | 53 | 0.624 | 4.2 | 0.69 |
Ron Meyer | 1982 | 1991 | nwe-clt | 104 | 54 | 0.519 | 3.9 | 0.44 |
Mike Sherman | 2000 | 2005 | gnb | 96 | 57 | 0.594 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
Jon Gruden | 1998 | 2008 | rai-tam | 176 | 95 | 0.54 | 3.4 | 0.31 |
Marvin Lewis | 2003 | 2012 | cin | 160 | 79.5 | 0.497 | 3.3 | 0.33 |
Art Shell | 1989 | 2006 | rai | 108 | 56 | 0.519 | 3.1 | 0.45 |
Tom Flores | 1979 | 1994 | rai-sea | 184 | 97 | 0.527 | 2.9 | 0.25 |
Allie Sherman | 1961 | 1968 | nyg | 112 | 59 | 0.527 | 2.9 | 0.36 |
Red Miller | 1977 | 1980 | den | 62 | 40 | 0.645 | 2.9 | 0.72 |
Jack Pardee | 1975 | 1994 | chi-was-oti | 164 | 87 | 0.53 | 2.8 | 0.25 |
Joe Schmidt | 1967 | 1972 | det | 84 | 46.5 | 0.554 | 2.7 | 0.46 |
Weeb Ewbank | 1954 | 1973 | clt-nyj | 266 | 133.5 | 0.502 | 2.7 | 0.13 |
Hank Stram | 1960 | 1977 | kan-nor | 224 | 128 | 0.571 | 2.6 | 0.16 |
Raymond Berry | 1984 | 1989 | nwe | 87 | 48 | 0.552 | 2.3 | 0.39 |
Jim Fassel | 1997 | 2003 | nyg | 112 | 58.5 | 0.522 | 2.3 | 0.33 |
Potsy Clark | 1931 | 1940 | det-bkn | 92 | 51 | 0.554 | 2 | 0.26 |
Charley Winner | 1966 | 1975 | crd-nyj | 93 | 46.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.28 |
John Ralston | 1972 | 1976 | den | 70 | 35.5 | 0.507 | 1.9 | 0.38 |
Walt Michaels | 1977 | 1982 | nyj | 87 | 39.5 | 0.454 | 1.8 | 0.29 |
Steve Mariucci | 1997 | 2005 | sfo-det | 139 | 72 | 0.518 | 1.7 | 0.18 |
Jim Mora | 2004 | 2009 | atl-sea | 64 | 31 | 0.484 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
Pete Carroll | 1994 | 2012 | nyj-nwe-sea | 112 | 58 | 0.518 | 1.6 | 0.23 |
Brian Billick | 1999 | 2007 | rav | 144 | 80 | 0.556 | 1.4 | 0.16 |
Wayne Fontes | 1988 | 1996 | det | 133 | 66 | 0.496 | 1.4 | 0.16 |
Barry Switzer | 1994 | 1997 | dal | 64 | 40 | 0.625 | 1.4 | 0.34 |
Tony Sparano | 2008 | 2011 | mia | 61 | 29 | 0.475 | 1.3 | 0.31 |
Mike Holovak | 1961 | 1976 | nwe-nyj | 108 | 56.5 | 0.523 | 1.2 | 0.14 |
John Robinson | 1983 | 1991 | ram | 143 | 75 | 0.524 | 1.2 | 0.13 |
Brad Childress | 2006 | 2010 | min | 74 | 39 | 0.527 | 0.7 | 0.14 |
Dan Devine | 1971 | 1974 | gnb | 56 | 27 | 0.482 | 0.7 | 0.17 |
Mike Tice | 2001 | 2005 | min | 65 | 32 | 0.492 | 0.5 | 0.09 |
Jerry Glanville | 1985 | 1993 | oti-atl | 129 | 60 | 0.465 | 0.4 | 0.05 |
Sam Rutigliano | 1978 | 1984 | cle | 97 | 47 | 0.485 | -0.2 | -0.03 |
Forrest Gregg | 1975 | 1987 | cle-cin-gnb | 161 | 75.5 | 0.469 | -0.3 | -0.03 |
Walt Kiesling | 1939 | 1956 | pit-phi-crd | 90 | 32.5 | 0.361 | -0.4 | -0.04 |
Red Hickey | 1959 | 1963 | sfo | 55 | 27.5 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.08 |
Buddy Ryan | 1986 | 1995 | phi-crd | 111 | 55.5 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.06 |
Ken Whisenhunt | 2007 | 2012 | crd | 96 | 45 | 0.469 | -0.5 | -0.09 |
Jerry Burns | 1986 | 1991 | min | 95 | 52 | 0.547 | -0.7 | -0.12 |
Eric Mangini | 2006 | 2010 | nyj-cle | 80 | 33 | 0.413 | -0.8 | -0.15 |
Wally Lemm | 1961 | 1970 | oti-crd | 135 | 67.5 | 0.5 | -0.9 | -0.09 |
Butch Davis | 2001 | 2004 | cle | 58 | 24 | 0.414 | -1 | -0.26 |
Curly Lambeau | 1921 | 1953 | gnb-crd-was | 239 | 136.5 | 0.571 | -1.2 | -0.06 |
John Mackovic | 1983 | 1986 | kan | 64 | 30 | 0.469 | -1.3 | -0.33 |
Gene Stallings | 1986 | 1989 | crd | 58 | 23.5 | 0.405 | -1.4 | -0.34 |
Rex Ryan | 2009 | 2012 | nyj | 64 | 34 | 0.531 | -1.4 | -0.35 |
Gus Dorais | 1943 | 1947 | det | 53 | 21 | 0.396 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
Vince Tobin | 1996 | 2000 | crd | 71 | 28 | 0.394 | -1.6 | -0.31 |
Jack Patera | 1976 | 1982 | sea | 80 | 33 | 0.413 | -1.9 | -0.32 |
Jack Del Rio | 2003 | 2011 | jax | 139 | 68 | 0.489 | -2 | -0.22 |
Jack Christiansen | 1963 | 1967 | sfo | 67 | 27.5 | 0.41 | -2.1 | -0.41 |
Red Strader | 1948 | 1955 | naa-nyy-sfo | 58 | 26 | 0.448 | -2.3 | -0.46 |
Dutch Clark | 1937 | 1942 | det-ram | 66 | 31 | 0.47 | -2.5 | -0.41 |
Mike Nolan | 2005 | 2008 | sfo | 55 | 18 | 0.327 | -2.5 | -0.63 |
Nick Skorich | 1961 | 1974 | phi-cle | 98 | 47.5 | 0.485 | -2.9 | -0.42 |
Ray Rhodes | 1995 | 1999 | phi-gnb | 80 | 37.5 | 0.469 | -2.9 | -0.59 |
Dave Wannstedt | 1993 | 2004 | chi-mia | 169 | 82 | 0.485 | -3 | -0.27 |
Ray Malavasi | 1966 | 1982 | den-ram | 85 | 44 | 0.518 | -3.1 | -0.51 |
Jim Haslett | 2000 | 2008 | nor-ram | 108 | 47 | 0.435 | -3.1 | -0.44 |
George Wilson | 1957 | 1969 | det-mia | 146 | 69 | 0.473 | -3.1 | -0.29 |
Neill Armstrong | 1978 | 1981 | chi | 64 | 30 | 0.469 | -3.3 | -0.83 |
Chan Gailey | 1998 | 2012 | dal-buf | 80 | 34 | 0.425 | -3.8 | -0.76 |
Jim Hanifan | 1980 | 1989 | crd-atl | 93 | 39.5 | 0.425 | -3.9 | -0.56 |
Dick Jauron | 1999 | 2009 | chi-det-buf | 142 | 60 | 0.423 | -4.1 | -0.41 |
June Jones | 1994 | 1998 | atl-sdg | 58 | 22 | 0.379 | -4.2 | -1.04 |
Joe Walton | 1983 | 1989 | nyj | 111 | 53.5 | 0.482 | -4.5 | -0.64 |
Tommy Prothro | 1971 | 1978 | ram-sdg | 88 | 36 | 0.409 | -4.5 | -0.64 |
Alex Webster | 1969 | 1973 | nyg | 70 | 29.5 | 0.421 | -4.5 | -0.9 |
Norm Van Brocklin | 1961 | 1974 | min-atl | 159 | 66.5 | 0.418 | -4.7 | -0.39 |
Dave McGinnis | 2000 | 2003 | crd | 57 | 17 | 0.298 | -5 | -1.26 |
Jim Dooley | 1968 | 1971 | chi | 56 | 20 | 0.357 | -5.4 | -1.36 |
Bart Starr | 1975 | 1983 | gnb | 131 | 53.5 | 0.408 | -5.4 | -0.61 |
Bill McPeak | 1961 | 1965 | was | 70 | 22.5 | 0.321 | -5.8 | -1.17 |
Jim Schwartz | 2009 | 2012 | det | 64 | 22 | 0.344 | -5.8 | -1.46 |
Joe Kuharich | 1952 | 1968 | crd-was-phi | 142 | 59.5 | 0.419 | -5.9 | -0.53 |
Mike McCormack | 1973 | 1982 | phi-clt-sea | 81 | 29.5 | 0.364 | -5.9 | -0.99 |
Dick Nolan | 1968 | 1980 | sfo-nor | 156 | 71.5 | 0.458 | -6 | -0.55 |
Bill Austin | 1966 | 1970 | pit-was | 56 | 18.5 | 0.33 | -6.2 | -1.55 |
Pop Ivy | 1958 | 1963 | crd-oti | 76 | 33 | 0.434 | -6.2 | -1.03 |
Monte Clark | 1976 | 1984 | sfo-det | 119 | 51.5 | 0.433 | -6.4 | -0.8 |
John McKay | 1976 | 1984 | tam | 119 | 44.5 | 0.374 | -6.5 | -0.81 |
Norv Turner | 1994 | 2012 | was-rai-sdg | 237 | 114.5 | 0.483 | -6.6 | -0.44 |
Leeman Bennett | 1977 | 1986 | atl-tam | 119 | 50 | 0.42 | -6.7 | -0.84 |
Darryl Rogers | 1985 | 1988 | det | 58 | 18 | 0.31 | -6.8 | -1.7 |
Ray Perkins | 1979 | 1990 | nyg-tam | 117 | 42 | 0.359 | -6.9 | -0.87 |
Sam Wyche | 1984 | 1995 | cin-tam | 191 | 84 | 0.44 | -7.1 | -0.59 |
Romeo Crennel | 2005 | 2012 | cle-kan | 83 | 28 | 0.337 | -7.4 | -1.24 |
Dennis Erickson | 1995 | 2004 | sea-sfo | 96 | 40 | 0.417 | -7.5 | -1.26 |
Dom Capers | 1995 | 2005 | car-htx | 96 | 37 | 0.385 | -7.6 | -1.26 |
Bruce Coslet | 1990 | 2000 | nyj-cin | 124 | 47 | 0.379 | -7.7 | -0.86 |
Harland Svare | 1962 | 1973 | ram-sdg | 74 | 23.5 | 0.318 | -8 | -1.14 |
Rich Kotite | 1991 | 1996 | phi-nyj | 96 | 40 | 0.417 | -8.4 | -1.39 |
Bert Bell | 1936 | 1941 | phi-pit | 58 | 11 | 0.19 | -8.9 | -1.48 |
Lindy Infante | 1988 | 1997 | gnb-clt | 96 | 36 | 0.375 | -9 | -1.5 |
David Shula | 1992 | 1996 | cin | 71 | 19 | 0.268 | -9.1 | -1.82 |
Joe Bugel | 1990 | 1997 | crd-rai | 80 | 24 | 0.3 | -9.7 | -1.94 |
Herman Edwards | 2001 | 2008 | nyj-kan | 128 | 54 | 0.422 | -11 | -1.37 |
Dan Henning | 1983 | 1991 | atl-sdg | 112 | 38.5 | 0.344 | -12.1 | -1.73 |
Marion Campbell | 1974 | 1989 | atl-phi | 115 | 34.5 | 0.3 | -14.9 | -1.66 |
We can take a closer look at Dungy’s career. While he did well in Tampa Bay, and he receives a significant amount of credit for his work with the Buccaneers in 1997, the majority of Dungy’s value comes from keeping the Colts among the elite teams in the league for seven straight years.
Year | Team | Exp. Wins | W | Win Over Exp |
---|---|---|---|---|
1996 | TAM | 6.49 | 6 | -0.49 |
1997 | TAM | 6.73 | 10 | 3.27 |
1998 | TAM | 8.61 | 8 | -0.61 |
1999 | TAM | 8.31 | 11 | 2.69 |
2000 | TAM | 8.66 | 10 | 1.34 |
2001 | TAM | 9.63 | 9 | -0.63 |
2002 | IND | 7.25 | 10 | 2.75 |
2003 | IND | 8.52 | 12 | 3.48 |
2004 | IND | 9.31 | 12 | 2.69 |
2005 | IND | 9.75 | 14 | 4.25 |
2006 | IND | 10.34 | 12 | 1.66 |
2007 | IND | 8.81 | 13 | 4.19 |
2008 | IND | 10.24 | 12 | 1.76 |
Total | 2TM | 112.65 | 139 | 26.35 |
As a reminder, this is just another tool to examine head coaches, not the tool to measure them. There are many flaws with this study: I’ll start with six, but I’m sure you guys can think of some more.
- I should probably use a different regression formula for different eras. Presumably, team winning percentages are “less sticky” now than they used to be, which would imply that a regression formula for the ’70s would differ from what we would use now. It’s worth keeping in mind that doing this would only serve to make Dungy look better, I imagine.
- I should use a different exponent to come up with Pythagorean records for different eras. I used 2.5 as the exponent for all years because I’m lazy.
- I excluded all seasons when a coach was taking over an expansion team. Since different expansion teams were given different benefits, I decided to punt on this issue instead of thinking about a thoughtful answer.
- I created career rankings by summing the values for each season. That’s probably not the best way to do things, although again, a method that focuses more on peak production will likely only serve to benefit Dungy.
- “Wins over projected wins” is a flawed way to measure coaches. It should also go without saying that projecting team wins based solely on Pythagorean record in Year N-1 is not a perfect way to measure projected wins, even if that wasn’t a flawed method to measure a coach.
- Playoff wins are obviously way more important than everything else, and are currently ignored in this system. But in case you forgot, I already looked at playoff wins over expectations when I used the Vegas lines (or the SRS) to come up with expectations. Dungy graded out as below average in that system.
So if I have all of these caveats, why am I posting this? One answer is that I’m a good enougher. Another answer: most of the things I mentioned are easy enough to fix the next time around and won’t have a big impact on the results (but would have taken some time to implement). So before I spend a lot of time doing fixing those problems, I’d be curious to hear your general thoughts on this system, and any other tweaks you think I should consider implementing.
References
↑1 | Admittedly, this looks less impressive when you consider that Jim Mora, Jim Caldwell, and John Fox have won 13+ games with Peyton Manning, too. |
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↑2 | All ties are counted as half-wins. |
↑3 | A. All coaches were included, but only their seasons since 1933 were counted. So George Halas’ line does not represent his career numbers, but instead his production since 1933. Why 1933? Because 1932 is a somewhat useful cut-off point, which makes it the first Year N-1 in the sample. B. I did not count any games where a coach was in charge of an expansion team. So Dom Capers’ line does not show his career line, either. C. I counted a tie as half a win. Don Shula did not win 331 games; he won 328 games and tied in six other games, but I am using 331 as a shorthand. D. For coaches who were fired or hired in mid-season, I used their actual number of wins but subtracted the pro-rated number of expected wins. |