≡ Menu

The Emmitt Smith Rant

Emmitt Smith was a product of the system, the one where they gave him the ball.

Emmitt Smith was a product of the system, the one where they gave him the ball.

One of Doug Drinen’s first posts at the old PFR Blog was titled, “The Emmitt Smith Rant.” That was now nine years ago, and while not much has changed regarding Smith’s career since 2006, how many people other than me still remember that old post? So I’ve decided to revive Doug’s old post, with his permission, of course.

With greatness comes backlash, and every great player has collected his share of detractors. And while Football Perspective readers don’t underrate him, it feels as though Emmitt Smith has been remembered by a significant number of football fans as a less-than-special running back.  He played with Hall of Famers at quarterback and wide receiver, with Pro Bowlers at fullback, tight end, and several spots on the offensive line. As a result, it’s understandable that some diminish the peak numbers he produced during his prime.

And yes, he did put up some monster numbers during his prime.  From 1991 to 1995, Smith was historically dominant. Consider that among all running backs during their ages 22 through 26 seasons (i.e., Smith from ’91 to ’95), he rushed for 8,019 yards; the next closest player during those ages was LaDainian Tomlinson with 7,361.  Smith also rushed for 85 touchdowns: Tomlinson (72) is the only other player within 20 rushing touchdowns of Smith during those ages.

But let’s say you don’t want to give Smith “full credit” for those years.  What about what he did from 1998 to 2001? During those years, Chan Gailey and Dave Campo coached the team for two seasons each. Dallas went 28-36 during those years, and the passing attack ranked 17th in Net Yards per Attempt. In other words, these weren’t the Troy Aikman/Michael Irvin Cowboys. And while Larry Allen was still around, the offensive line was more name than substance at this point.

At the start of this four-year period, Smith was 29 years old. Through age 28, Smith had recorded 2,595 carries in the regular season, [1]In addition to 318 more in the playoffs. the most of any player through age 28 in NFL history. So you’ve got a situation where a running back had been worn down to an absurd degree, stuck on a mediocre team and on a mediocre offense. If Smith was not a special back, how would he do?

Consider that the player with the second most carries through age 28 was Edgerrin James, a pretty darn good back in his own right. And from ages 29 to 31 (he was out of football at age 32), he rushed 503 times for 1,861 yards and 10 touchdowns, while averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

Well, from ages 29 to 32, Smith rushed 1,203 times for 4,953 yards and 36 touchdowns, while averaging 4.12 yards per carry. When people wonder how Emmitt Smith would have done if he didn’t play for one of the most talented teams in NFL history, there’s a pretty good response: we don’t need to speculate. He, in fact, played for several mediocre teams in his career, including from ’98 to ’01. And what he did was amass more rushing yards from age 29-32 than any player in NFL history aside from Walter Payton and Tiki Barber. Look instead at rushing yards per game, and only Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Priest Holmes were better during those years, and we know that Brown and Holmes played on extremely talented teams during those seasons.

Most good-but-not-great running backs are struggling to hold a job at age 30, based on these age curves. Well, from ages 29 to 32, Smith ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards and 2nd in rushing touchdowns, while playing for below-average teams. Smith played on some good teams early in his career, but he also played on some bad teams late in his career. Even if you give more weight to his team’s records during his prime years, Smith’s career weighted winning percentage was nothing special, and identical to those of Tomlinson and Payton.

No one knows how Emmitt’s prime would have looked in a different uniform. I am not going to argue that he would still be the all-time rushing champ had he switched places with Sanders or Payton, or had Brown played more games. Nor am I going to argue that he didn’t benefit from some good fortune. All record holders did. But he was and is one of the very best running backs in history.

References

References
1 In addition to 318 more in the playoffs.
{ 21 comments }