The Jay Schroeder Index

by Chase Stuart on May 20, 2017

Yesterday, I looked at the quarterbacks who were the biggest checkdown artists: i.e., which players had the best completion percentages and lowest yards per completion averages. I measured this by calculating how many standard deviations above/below average each quarterback was in those two categories in each year.

Today, the reverse. And the big winner is rookie Terry Bradshaw. We all know Bradshaw stunk as a rookie. He had a whopping 11.0% interception rate, which was horrible even for 1970. In fact, he has the second most attempts in history by a player with an 11% or worse interception rate. And since Bradshaw also ranked dead last in completion percentage, he ranked 2nd to last in ANY/A that year.

Of course, you might wonder: how could someone with the worst completion percentage and by far the worst interception rate not rank last (by a mile) in ANY/A? Well, it’s because Bradshaw ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards per completion as a rookie. He was your ultimate boom/bust passer, finishing 2.75 standard deviations below average in completion percentage and 2.18 standard deviations above average in yards per completion.

The top of the list features a bunch of interesting names, but I’m calling this the Jay Schroeder Index for a reason. Schroeder only had 8 seasons where he threw at least 200 passes, but he makes the top 200 in 6 of those 8 seasons! Schroeder made the list in ’86, ’87, and ’88 (despite moving from the Redskins to the Raiders this year), and then in ’90, ’91, and ’92. He only missed the list in 1989 during this run, and that’s because he threw just 194 passes. But in 1989, of the 34 quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts, Schroeder had the lowest completion percentage (46.9%) and by far the highest yards per completion average (17.0, the best of his career). In other words, Schroeder had a top-200 season in 6 out of 7 straight years, with the lone exception being perhaps his most Schroeder-esque season! Of course, Schroeder’s love of the deep ball isn’t new to readers of this site.

The table below shows the top 200 seasons based on the Schroeder Index, using the same formula as yesterday:

Rk	Player	Team	Year	Cmp%	Yd/Cmp	Z-Score (Cmp)	Z-Score (Y/C)	Total
1	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1970	38.1%	17.0	-2.75	2.18	-4.94
2	Jim Zorn	SEA	1977	41.4%	16.2	-2.42	2.51	-4.93
3	Bobby Douglass	CHI	1972	37.9%	16.6	-2.77	2.11	-4.88
4	Gus Frerotte	WAS	1995	50.3%	13.8	-1.95	2.58	-4.52
5	Brian Hoyer	CLE	2014	55.3%	13.7	-2.05	2.47	-4.52
6	Heath Shuler	WAS	1994	45.3%	13.8	-2.23	2.25	-4.48
7	Cam Newton	CAR	2016	52.9%	13.0	-2.50	1.76	-4.26
8	Eric Hipple	DET	1981	50.2%	16.8	-1.12	3.13	-4.25
9	Tim Tebow	DEN	2011	46.5%	13.7	-2.72	1.53	-4.25
10	Doug Williams	TAM	1979	41.8%	14.7	-2.85	1.40	-4.25
11	Jay Schroeder	RAI	1988	44.1%	16.3	-1.99	2.22	-4.20
12	Matt Robinson	NYJ	1978	46.6%	16.1	-1.60	2.41	-4.01
13	Jay Schroeder	RAI	1990	54.5%	15.7	-0.67	3.27	-3.93
14	Steve Beuerlein	RAI	1988	44.1%	15.6	-1.99	1.80	-3.79
15	Patrick Ramsey	WAS	2002	51.5%	13.2	-1.59	2.12	-3.71
16	Drew Stanton	ARI	2014	55%	13.0	-2.11	1.58	-3.70
17	Warren Moon	HOU	1987	50%	15.3	-1.47	2.18	-3.66
18	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1980	51.4%	15.3	-1.28	2.33	-3.61
19	Donovan McNabb	PHI	2006	57%	14.7	-0.68	2.86	-3.53
20	Steve Grogan	NWE	1979	48.7%	16.0	-1.30	2.21	-3.52
21	Tony Banks	STL	1996	52.2%	13.3	-1.52	1.99	-3.51
22	Billy Joe Tolliver	NOR	1999	51.9%	13.8	-1.86	1.64	-3.49
23	Jay Schroeder	WAS	1987	48.3%	14.6	-1.87	1.57	-3.44
24	Jeff Blake	CIN	1994	51%	13.8	-1.20	2.24	-3.44
25	Josh Freeman	TAM	2012	54.8%	13.3	-1.45	1.91	-3.36
26	Bob Gagliano	DET	1989	50.4%	14.3	-1.44	1.89	-3.33
27	Bruce Mathison	BUF	1985	49.6%	14.5	-1.43	1.87	-3.31
28	Kerry Collins	CAR	1995	49.4%	12.7	-2.14	1.16	-3.30
29	Marlin Briscoe	DEN	1968	41.5%	17.1	-1.73	1.56	-3.29
30	Cam Newton	CAR	2012	57.7%	13.8	-0.74	2.55	-3.29
31	Craig Morton	DAL	1970	49.3%	17.8	-0.54	2.66	-3.20
32	Case Keenum	HOU	2013	54.2%	12.8	-1.84	1.34	-3.18
33	Jake Plummer	ARI	1997	53%	14.0	-0.89	2.29	-3.18
34	Derek Anderson	CLE	2007	56.5%	12.7	-1.22	1.94	-3.16
35	Jay Schroeder	WAS	1986	51%	14.9	-1.24	1.87	-3.11
36	Mike Pagel	BAL	1983	49.7%	14.4	-1.61	1.49	-3.10
37	Jameis Winston	TAM	2015	58.3%	13.0	-1.32	1.77	-3.10
38	Andrew Luck	IND	2012	54.1%	12.9	-1.64	1.45	-3.09
39	Derek Anderson	ARI	2010	51.7%	12.2	-2.43	0.64	-3.07
40	Chris Miller	ATL	1991	53.3%	14.1	-1.05	2.00	-3.05
41	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1975	45.1%	14.5	-1.76	1.25	-3.01
42	Kellen Clemens	NYJ	2007	52%	11.8	-2.29	0.68	-2.97
43	Dan Fouts	SDG	1974	48.5%	15.1	-1.14	1.77	-2.91
44	Joe Namath	NYJ	1972	50%	17.4	-0.31	2.59	-2.90
45	Craig Erickson	TAM	1993	51%	13.1	-1.52	1.37	-2.90
46	Brandon Weeden	CLE	2013	52.8%	12.3	-2.18	0.69	-2.87
47	Steve Grogan	NWE	1978	50%	15.6	-0.85	2.02	-2.87
48	Gus Frerotte	WAS	1997	50.7%	13.1	-1.51	1.33	-2.84
49	Jeff Kemp	RAM	1984	50.4%	14.1	-1.48	1.35	-2.83
50	Chad Hutchinson	DAL	2002	50.8%	12.2	-1.74	1.06	-2.80
51	Eli Manning	NYG	2005	52.8%	12.8	-1.52	1.28	-2.80
52	Bubby Brister	PIT	1988	47.3%	15.1	-1.39	1.41	-2.79
53	Chris Chandler	ATL	1998	58.1%	16.6	0.26	3.05	-2.79
54	Rodney Peete	DET	1990	52.4%	13.9	-1.37	1.41	-2.79
55	Paul McDonald	CLE	1982	49%	13.6	-1.64	1.13	-2.77
56	Wade Wilson	MIN	1987	53%	15.0	-0.77	2.00	-2.77
57	John Elway	DEN	1983	47.5%	13.5	-2.06	0.69	-2.76
58	Joe Pisarcik	NYG	1978	47.5%	14.7	-1.40	1.34	-2.75
59	Cam Newton	CAR	2015	59.7%	13.0	-0.94	1.78	-2.72
60	Chad Henne	JAX	2012	53.9%	12.6	-1.68	1.03	-2.71
61	Jim Plunkett	RAI	1986	52.8%	14.9	-0.81	1.90	-2.71
62	Steve Tensi	DEN	1967	40.3%	14.6	-2.15	0.54	-2.69
63	Richard Todd	NYJ	1979	51.2%	15.6	-0.74	1.95	-2.69
64	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	2008	53.8%	12.2	-1.79	0.89	-2.69
65	Aaron Brooks	NOR	2002	53.6%	12.6	-1.18	1.50	-2.68
66	Doug Williams	TAM	1980	48.8%	13.4	-1.92	0.76	-2.68
67	Steve Ramsey	DEN	1976	47.4%	15.1	-0.83	1.85	-2.68
68	Doug Williams	TAM	1981	50.5%	15.0	-1.04	1.63	-2.67
69	Jack Kemp	BUF	1967	43.6%	15.5	-1.44	1.18	-2.62
70	Derek Anderson	CLE	2008	50.2%	11.4	-2.67	-0.06	-2.60
71	Jay Schroeder	RAI	1991	52.9%	13.6	-1.13	1.47	-2.59
72	J.P. Losman	BUF	2005	49.6%	11.9	-2.20	0.39	-2.59
73	Jake Delhomme	CAR	2008	59.4%	13.4	-0.43	2.15	-2.58
74	Michael Vick	ATL	2002	54.9%	12.7	-0.93	1.60	-2.53
75	Carson Palmer	ARI	2015	63.7%	13.7	0.20	2.72	-2.52
76	Frank Reich	NYJ	1996	52.9%	12.6	-1.33	1.18	-2.51
77	Tom Flores	OAK	1966	49.3%	17.5	-0.19	2.32	-2.51
78	Scott Hunter	GNB	1972	43.2%	14.6	-1.69	0.82	-2.51
79	Jim Everett	RAM	1993	49.3%	12.2	-1.88	0.62	-2.51
80	Jim Plunkett	OAK	1980	51.6%	13.9	-1.25	1.22	-2.46
81	Patrick Ramsey	WAS	2003	53.1%	12.1	-1.50	0.95	-2.45
82	Colin Kaepernick	SFO	2013	58.4%	13.2	-0.75	1.70	-2.44
83	Mark Malone	PIT	1984	54%	14.5	-0.69	1.75	-2.44
84	Joe Namath	NYJ	1975	48.2%	14.6	-1.11	1.32	-2.44
85	Steve Tensi	DEN	1969	45.8%	15.2	-1.58	0.85	-2.43
86	Vinny Testaverde	TAM	1988	47.6%	14.6	-1.32	1.10	-2.43
87	Craig Whelihan	SDG	1998	46.6%	12.1	-2.38	0.05	-2.43
88	Gary Marangi	BUF	1976	35.3%	12.2	-2.68	-0.26	-2.41
89	Vince Young	TEN	2006	51.5%	12.0	-1.96	0.43	-2.40
90	Ryan Leaf	SDG	1998	45.3%	11.6	-2.66	-0.28	-2.39
91	Blake Bortles	JAX	2015	58.6%	12.5	-1.25	1.12	-2.37
92	Bob Lee	ATL	1973	52.2%	14.9	-0.65	1.71	-2.36
93	Vinny Testaverde	CLE	1993	56.5%	13.8	-0.37	1.99	-2.36
94	Jim Hart	STL	1971	45.3%	14.8	-1.36	0.99	-2.35
95	Jeff Hostetler	RAI	1993	56.3%	13.7	-0.41	1.91	-2.32
96	Kerry Collins	OAK	2005	53.5%	12.4	-1.38	0.95	-2.32
97	John Hadl	RAM	1973	52.3%	14.9	-0.61	1.71	-2.32
98	John Elway	DEN	1991	53.7%	13.4	-0.96	1.36	-2.32
99	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	2009	53.8%	12.5	-1.31	1.01	-2.32
100	Tony Banks	STL	1997	51.7%	12.9	-1.24	1.07	-2.31
101	Joe Pisarcik	NYG	1977	42.7%	13.1	-2.14	0.18	-2.31
102	Jim Hart	STL	1970	45.8%	15.1	-1.22	1.09	-2.31
103	Greg Landry	DET	1971	52.1%	16.4	-0.09	2.22	-2.31
104	Joe Gilliam	PIT	1974	45.3%	13.3	-1.82	0.48	-2.31
105	Michael Vick	ATL	2006	52.6%	12.1	-1.72	0.59	-2.31
106	Tony Banks	WAS	2001	53.5%	12.1	-1.65	0.66	-2.31
107	Trent Green	KAN	2001	56.6%	12.8	-0.79	1.50	-2.29
108	Dave Krieg	KAN	1992	55.7%	13.5	-0.44	1.83	-2.28
109	Joe Ferguson	BUF	1981	50.6%	14.5	-1.03	1.24	-2.27
110	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1982	52.9%	13.9	-0.84	1.43	-2.27
111	Jeff George	MIN	1999	58.1%	14.7	0.21	2.47	-2.26
112	Josh McCown	TAM	2014	56.3%	12.0	-1.77	0.48	-2.25
113	Gary Danielson	DET	1982	50.8%	13.4	-1.28	0.96	-2.25
114	Nick Foles	PHI	2013	64%	14.2	0.69	2.93	-2.24
115	Scott Mitchell	DET	1994	48.4%	12.2	-1.67	0.57	-2.23
116	Jeff Blake	BAL	2002	55.9%	12.6	-0.71	1.51	-2.22
117	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1977	51.6%	15.6	-0.17	2.03	-2.21
118	Ron Jaworski	PHI	1983	52.7%	14.1	-0.99	1.20	-2.19
119	Marc Wilson	RAI	1985	49.7%	13.5	-1.38	0.81	-2.19
120	Rex Grossman	CHI	2007	54.2%	11.6	-1.77	0.42	-2.19
121	Jake Plummer	DEN	2004	58.2%	13.5	-0.51	1.67	-2.18
122	Geno Smith	NYJ	2013	55.8%	12.3	-1.43	0.75	-2.18
123	Tony Banks	BAL	1999	52.8%	12.6	-1.54	0.64	-2.18
124	Rusty Hilger	DET	1988	41.2%	12.4	-2.55	-0.37	-2.18
125	Akili Smith	CIN	2000	44.2%	10.6	-3.23	-1.06	-2.17
126	Jim Plunkett	NWE	1974	49.1%	14.2	-1.00	1.16	-2.16
127	Scott Brunner	NYG	1983	49.2%	13.2	-1.71	0.45	-2.16
128	Andrew Luck	IND	2015	55.3%	11.6	-2.18	-0.04	-2.15
129	Joe Ferguson	BUF	1979	52%	15.0	-0.57	1.58	-2.15
130	Ryan Fitzpatrick	NYJ	2016	56.6%	11.9	-1.63	0.51	-2.14
131	Kordell Stewart	CHI	2003	50.2%	11.3	-2.23	-0.09	-2.13
132	Phil Simms	NYG	1984	53.7%	14.1	-0.77	1.36	-2.13
133	Marc Wilson	OAK	1981	47.3%	13.4	-1.79	0.33	-2.12
134	Joe Theismann	WAS	1978	47.9%	13.9	-1.31	0.78	-2.08
135	Bob Avellini	CHI	1976	43.5%	13.4	-1.42	0.62	-2.04
136	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	2005	62.7%	14.2	0.58	2.61	-2.03
137	Donovan McNabb	PHI	2009	60.3%	13.3	-0.10	1.93	-2.03
138	John Hadl	SDG	1968	47.3%	16.7	-0.66	1.37	-2.02
139	Philip Rivers	SDG	2016	60.4%	12.6	-0.72	1.28	-2.00
140	Kordell Stewart	PIT	2000	52.2%	12.3	-1.41	0.57	-1.98
141	Richard Todd	NOR	1984	51.6%	13.5	-1.21	0.75	-1.96
142	Trent Green	STL	2000	60.4%	14.2	0.44	2.39	-1.95
143	Lynn Dickey	GNB	1982	56.9%	14.4	-0.03	1.91	-1.94
144	Vince Evans	CHI	1980	53.2%	13.8	-0.84	1.09	-1.94
145	Marc Wilson	RAI	1984	54.3%	14.1	-0.64	1.27	-1.92
146	Mark Rypien	WAS	1991	59.1%	14.3	0.29	2.20	-1.91
147	David Archer	ATL	1986	51%	13.4	-1.24	0.67	-1.91
148	Bill Kenney	KAN	1984	53.5%	13.9	-0.80	1.11	-1.91
149	Jeff George	OAK	1997	55.7%	13.5	-0.19	1.72	-1.91
150	Aaron Brooks	NOR	2001	55.9%	12.3	-0.98	0.92	-1.91
151	Dick Shiner	PIT	1969	46.4%	14.7	-1.42	0.49	-1.90
152	Jack Kemp	BUF	1966	42.7%	14.8	-1.32	0.59	-1.90
153	Ryan Leaf	SDG	2000	50%	11.7	-1.92	-0.03	-1.89
154	Rex Grossman	CHI	2006	54.6%	12.2	-1.24	0.64	-1.88
155	Lynn Dickey	GNB	1983	59.7%	15.4	0.46	2.35	-1.88
156	Michael Vick	ATL	2004	56.4%	12.8	-0.88	0.99	-1.88
157	Drew Bledsoe	NWE	1993	49.9%	11.7	-1.75	0.12	-1.88
158	Gus Frerotte	MIA	2005	52%	11.7	-1.68	0.20	-1.87
159	Mike Tomczak	CHI	1989	51%	13.2	-1.31	0.57	-1.87
160	Jay Schroeder	RAI	1992	48.6%	12.0	-1.84	0.02	-1.86
161	John Elway	DEN	1989	53.6%	13.7	-0.69	1.16	-1.85
162	Trent Dilfer	TAM	1995	54%	12.4	-1.08	0.77	-1.85
163	Steve Grogan	NWE	1983	55.4%	14.4	-0.42	1.42	-1.83
164	Greg Cook	CIN	1969	53.8%	17.5	0.57	2.40	-1.83
165	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	2010	54.8%	11.8	-1.61	0.21	-1.83
166	Rick Mirer	SEA	1995	53.5%	12.3	-1.20	0.62	-1.82
167	Doug Johnson	ATL	2003	56%	12.2	-0.79	1.03	-1.82
168	Scott Mitchell	MIA	1993	57.1%	13.3	-0.26	1.56	-1.82
169	Donald Hollas	OAK	1998	51.9%	13.0	-1.15	0.64	-1.80
170	Jake Locker	TEN	2012	56.4%	12.3	-1.07	0.71	-1.79
171	Phil Simms	NYG	1980	48%	12.0	-2.09	-0.32	-1.78
172	Bobby Douglass	CHI	1971	40.4%	12.8	-2.26	-0.48	-1.78
173	Mark Malone	PIT	1987	46.4%	12.2	-2.31	-0.54	-1.77
174	Tommy Kramer	MIN	1984	52.5%	13.5	-1.01	0.75	-1.76
175	Ron Jaworski	PHI	1979	50.8%	14.0	-0.83	0.93	-1.76
176	Matt Ryan	ATL	2008	61.1%	13.0	-0.04	1.72	-1.76
177	Warren Moon	HOU	1986	52.5%	13.6	-0.89	0.86	-1.75
178	Joe Namath	NYJ	1968	49.2%	16.8	-0.29	1.43	-1.73
179	John Elway	DEN	1987	54.6%	14.3	-0.39	1.33	-1.72
180	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	2010	61.7%	13.3	0.16	1.87	-1.72
181	Drew Bledsoe	NWE	1998	54.7%	13.8	-0.52	1.19	-1.72
182	Matthew Stafford	DET	2013	58.5%	12.5	-0.72	0.98	-1.71
183	Tom Sherman	BOS	1968	39.8%	13.3	-2.05	-0.35	-1.70
184	Jim Hart	STL	1967	48.4%	15.7	-0.43	1.27	-1.69
185	Bill Kenney	KAN	1985	53.6%	14.0	-0.32	1.36	-1.68
186	Kordell Stewart	PIT	1997	53.6%	12.8	-0.73	0.95	-1.68
187	Vinny Testaverde	TAM	1990	55.6%	13.9	-0.28	1.39	-1.68
188	Vince Evans	CHI	1981	44.7%	12.1	-2.37	-0.70	-1.67
189	Mike Tomczak	PIT	1996	55.4%	12.5	-0.66	1.01	-1.67
190	Greg Landry	DET	1972	50%	15.4	-0.31	1.36	-1.67
191	Steve Grogan	NWE	1975	50.7%	14.2	-0.57	1.09	-1.67
192	Tom Tupa	PHO	1991	52.4%	12.4	-1.25	0.38	-1.64
193	Marcus Mariota	TEN	2016	61.2%	12.4	-0.53	1.10	-1.63
194	Kevin Kolb	ARI	2011	57.7%	13.4	-0.41	1.22	-1.63
195	John Elway	DEN	1992	55.1%	12.9	-0.57	1.06	-1.63
196	Steve McNair	TEN	1997	52%	12.3	-1.16	0.45	-1.61
197	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	2012	54.3%	11.7	-1.58	0.02	-1.60
198	Cam Newton	CAR	2014	58.5%	11.9	-1.18	0.42	-1.60
199	Chris Chandler	ATL	1999	56.7%	13.4	-0.25	1.34	-1.59
200	Craig Morton	DEN	1977	51.6%	14.7	-0.18	1.40	-1.58

Just three quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era have ranked 1st in yards per completion but last in completion percentage, and you’ll probably be surprised by a couple of these names: Heath Shuler did it as a rookie for the Redskins in 1994, Bob Gagliano for the Lions in 1989 (the only year of his career with more than four starts), and Jim Zorn for the Seahawks in 1977, in the second year of both his and Steve Largent’s career.

We should also spend a few words on Cam Newton’s performance last year. Matt Ryan had a remarkable season in terms of both completion percentage (3rd) and yards per completion (1st). But if not for Ryan, Newton would have joined the list above: the Panthers star quarterback ranked dead last in completion percentage but for the 4th time in 6 years, he averaged at least 13 yards per completion. That was good enough for second in the league behind Ryan. Newton isn’t quite Schroeder yet, but he may wind up with more top-200 appearances on this list. And, of course, it should go without saying that Newton is a much better quarterback than Schroeder was.

What stands out to you on this list? What do you think of the Schroeder Index vs. the Bradford Index?

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