The Jets are 4-3, and it would not be an exaggeration to say that the team’s success is heavily tied to New York’s ability to control games on the ground. The Jets running backs have rushed for over 150 yards in three games this year, wins over Washington (190), Miami (173), and Cleveland (155). The Jets have also had three games with 60 or fewer rushing yards, losses against New England (60), Philadelphia (34), and Oakland (28). The seventh game, a win over the Colts, saw the Jets running backs operate at a reasonably effective pace of 26 carries for 95 yards.

In other words, when the Jets run well, they win, and when they don’t, they lose. That sounds simplistic, and it is: it’s a bit of an over exaggeration, although one grounded in some truth. In general, teams run more when they win — or, more precisely, when they have favorable Game Scripts — and run less often when they have negative Game Scripts. And the Jets games have had pretty strong Game Scripts in the four wins, scoring a +6.1 against Washington, +6.5 against Cleveland, +7.3 against the Colts, and +11.9 against Miami. Those are the sorts of games where it’s easy to produce good numbers, and Jets running backs ^[1]This is meant to exclude Ryan Fitzpatrick and other non-running backs. have averaged 153.25 rushing yards in these four wins.

The losses to Philadelphia (-10.6) and Oakland (I haven’t calculated it yet, but it will certainly be in the double digits) were ugly; the Patriots game (-0.6) was the only game that unfolded with a neutral Game Script. Still, in three losses, the Jets running backs have rushed 54 times for just 122 yards. So the causation arrow isn’t pointing only one way here: the Jets are winning when they run more effectively, and losing when they aren’t, on top of whatever bonus the raw totals get out of Game Scripts.

One way to measure this would be to see how the Jets compare to all other teams. In wins, Jets running backs have rushed 131 times for 613 yards, a 4.68 YPC average, while gaining 153.25 yards per game. In losses, it’s 54/122/2.26/40.67. The Jets are rushing for 112.6 more yards per game in wins than in losses: as it turns out, that’s the largest discrepancy in the league. And New York running backs are averaging 2.42 more yards per carry in wins than in losses: that’s the second biggest differential, behind Miami.

The table below shows running back data through eight weeks ^[2]But excluding Monday Night Football. for each of the 28 teams in the NFL that have both won and lost a game. ^[3]This excludes, of course, the undefeated Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, and Bengals. Here’s how to read the Jets line. The Jets have 4 wins and 3 losses this year. In wins, Jets running backs have 131 carries for 613 yards, a 4.68 yards per carry average in wins. In losses, Jets running backs have 54 carries for 122 yards, a 2.26 yards per carry average. In wins, Jets running backs have averaged 153.3 yards per game, while in losses, that number is 40.7 yards. That difference is -112.6, the most in the league, and the YPC difference is 2.42.

I don’t think it’s particularly surprising to see the Jets atop this list, or to see Miami, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Minnesota also in the top five. New York has also faced injury issues in all three losses: Chris Ivory missed the Eagles game and was banged up in the Patriots game, while the Jets were without Ryan Fitzpatrick and Nick Mangold in the Raiders loss. That explains some of the reduced efficiency of the rushing game, and the negative Game Scripts in two of the three losses helps to explain the lower totals. But we are still talking about massive differences here, and it does underscore the key point: the success of the Jets is going to be tied to the effectiveness of the running game most weeks.