The Jets Have Been The Worst NFL Team At Winning Division Titles

by Chase Stuart on June 25, 2019

In 1998, Glenn Foley started the season as the Jets quarterback. He went 0-3 but was replaced by Vinny Testaverde, who went 12-1 as a starter that year. Testaverde led the Jets to an AFC East Division title that season.

In 2002, Testaverde had switched roles. He began the season as New York’s starter, but went 1-3, and was replaced by a young Chad Pennington. In his first year as a starter, Pennington led the NFL in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and passer rating, and led New York to an 8-4 record. That included a win over the Patriots … in New England… on Sunday Night Football in week 16, that meant neither New England nor New York would control their own destiny for the playoffs. Entering week 17, Miami was 9-6, with the Jets and Patriots at both 8-7; Miami would win the division with a win over New England in week 17, New England would win the division with a win over Miami and a Jets loss to Green Bay, and New York would win with a win over the Packers and a Dolphins loss to New England.

Miami led 24-13 over the Patriots with 4 minutes to go, but New England completed a wild comeback to force overtime. The Patriots ultimately won, 27-24, and the stadium full of Jets fans erupted when news was blasted on the big screen. New York routed the Packers, giving the Jets the AFC East.

Why such lengthy descriptions about a pair of division titles? Because those are the only two times the Jets have ever won the AFC East. In 1968 and 1969, Joe Namath led the Jets to division titles over the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, and Oilers to capture the AFL East crown, in those final two seasons prior to the merger.

But that’s it. In 59 seasons, the Jets have won just 4 division titles. How bad is that? Well, consider the following. For the first 6 seasons of the Jets franchise, they played in a 4-team division in the AFL East. The last 17 years, the Jets have played in the 4-team AFC East. So for 23 seasons, the Jets — if all teams were average — would have a 25% chance of winning the division. That would mean we would have expected New York to win 5.75 division titles those years. And for the 36 years from 1966 to 2001, the Jets played in a 5-team division, so you would expect 7.2 division titles with a 20% chance each season.

So over the 59 seasons, you would expect an average team in the Jets position to win 12.95 division titles. Instead, the Jets won 4, just 31% as many division titles as you would expect. That’s the fewest of any team.

The table below shows the results for every team in the NFL. The Cowbyos were in 7- and 8-team divisions for a couple of years, but like the Jets, entered the NFL in 1960. Dallas, like the Jets, was in a 5-team division from 1970 to 2001, and a 4-team division since; as a result, the Cowboys would be “expected” to have 12.38 division titles, with that number slightly lower than New York due to those early years in big divisions. In reality, Dallas has won 24 division titles, or 194% relative to expectation. That’s the most of any team.

Rk	Team	Div Titles	Seasons	Perc	Exp Div Titles	Diff
1	Cowboys	24	59	41%	12.38	194%
2	Patriots	21	59	36%	12.95	162%
3	Vikings	20	58	34%	12.61	159%
4	Colts	19	66	29%	13.57	140%
5	Packers	27	98	28%	18.71	144%
6	Browns	22	70	31%	15.52	142%
7	Giants	23	94	24%	18.15	127%
8	Steelers	23	86	27%	18.59	124%
9	Bears	23	99	23%	18.78	122%
10	49ers	19	73	26%	16.14	118%
11	Rams	20	82	24%	17.81	112%
12	Dolphins	14	53	26%	11.45	122%
13	Raiders	16	59	27%	13.35	120%
14	Texans	5	17	29%	4.25	118%
15	Chargers	15	59	25%	13.35	112%
16	Broncos	15	59	25%	13.35	112%
17	Panthers	6	24	25%	5.65	106%
18	Seahawks	10	43	23%	9.45	106%
19	Ravens	5	23	22%	5.35	93%
20	Chiefs	11	59	19%	13.35	82%
21	Redskins	15	87	17%	17.6	85%
22	Bills	10	59	17%	12.95	77%
23	Bengals	10	51	20%	12.2	82%
24	Eagles	14	86	16%	17.47	80%
25	Titans	9	59	15%	14.1	64%
26	Buccaneers	6	43	14%	9.45	63%
27	Saints	7	52	13%	12.6	56%
28	Falcons	7	53	13%	12.73	55%
29	Jaguars	3	24	13%	5.55	54%
30	Lions	8	89	9%	18.14	44%
31	Cardinals	8	99	8%	18.46	43%
32	Jets	4	59	7%	12.95	31%

And if you want to exclude the AAFC and AFL years, here is the same data. This is where the Jets look really bad.

Rk	Team	Div Titles	Seasons	Perc	Exp Div Titles	Diff
1	Cowboys	24	59	41%	12.38	194%
2	Patriots	20	49	41%	10.65	188%
3	Vikings	20	58	34%	12.61	159%
4	Packers	27	97	28%	18.67	145%
5	Colts	19	66	29%	13.57	140%
6	Broncos	15	49	31%	10.95	137%
7	Dolphins	14	49	29%	10.65	131%
8	Giants	23	94	24%	18.15	127%
9	49ers	19	69	28%	15.24	125%
10	Steelers	23	86	27%	18.59	124%
11	Browns	18	66	27%	14.62	123%
12	Raiders	13	49	27%	10.95	119%
13	Bears	22	97	23%	18.67	118%
14	Texans	5	17	29%	4.25	118%
15	Rams	20	82	24%	17.81	112%
16	Panthers	6	24	25%	5.65	106%
17	Seahawks	10	43	23%	9.45	106%
18	Ravens	5	23	22%	5.35	93%
19	Chargers	10	49	20%	10.95	91%
20	Redskins	15	87	17%	17.6	85%
21	Bengals	10	49	20%	11.8	85%
22	Chiefs	9	49	18%	10.95	82%
23	Eagles	14	86	16%	17.47	80%
24	Bills	7	49	14%	10.65	66%
25	Buccaneers	6	43	14%	9.45	63%
26	Saints	7	52	13%	12.6	56%
27	Falcons	7	53	13%	12.73	55%
28	Jaguars	3	24	13%	5.55	54%
29	Lions	8	89	9%	18.14	44%
30	Cardinals	8	97	8%	18.35	44%
31	Titans	5	49	10%	11.8	42%
32	Jets	2	49	4%	10.65	19%

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

{ 2 comments }