The Least-Conforming Game of 2018 Might Surprise You

by Chase Stuart on November 21, 2018

There have been two really remarkable upsets this season: one at the time, and one particularly in retrospect.

In week 3, the Bills went on the road and hammered the Minnesota Vikings, 27-6. Buffalo was a 16.5-point underdog; this season, no other team has won a game as an underdog of more than 10 points. It was an anomaly of historic proportions, marking the first time a team was ever a 15-point underdog and won by 15 or more points.

The other remarkable game was in week 1, when the Saints lost at home to Tampa Bay. The Bucs are 2-7 since that game, while New Orleans is 9-0. So while it was a huge upset at the time — it is tied with Titans/Jaguars as the second biggest upset of the season (10-point spread) — it’s even more remarkable in retrospect.

Every season, I like to look at the least conforming games of the year. I do this by generating each team’s Simple Rating System rating — which is just points differential per game adjusted by opponent and home field. Note that I am not using SRS ratings at the time of the game, but SRS ratings as of the end of (or current point in) the season. So while these are still subject to change, for now, New Orleans has an SRS of +14.0 ^[1]Note that these numbers will differ slightly from what PFR posts, because I count the London games as neutral site games, while PFR counts them as true home/road games. while Tampa Bay has an SRS rating of -4.1. The beauty of the SRS is each point represents a point above or below average, and you can use the SRS ratings to predict games.

When a +14.0 team hosts a -4.1 team, you’d expect the home team to win by about 21 points. Since the Saints lost by 8 points, this game was nonconforming by the tune of 29 points. That’s a lot.

Minnesota has an SRS of +0.4, while Buffalo has an SRS of -9.1. Therefore, we would have predicted that at home, the Vikings would beat the Bills by 12.5 points; instead, Buffalo won by 21 points. That’s nonconforming to the rune of 33.5 points.

But it’s not the most nonconforming game of the year. And in fact, it’s not the most nonconforming Bills game of the year. In week 10, Buffalo won on the road against the Jets, 41-10. The Jets have an SRS of -7.2, so at home against the -9.1 Bills, you’d expect New York to win by about 5 points. Since they lost by 31 points, that game was off by about 36 points.

But that wasn’t the most nonconforming game of the year. And in fact, it’s not the most nonconforming Jets game of the year. In week 1, the Jets traveled to Detroit to face the -4.6 SRS Lions. You’d expect the Jets to lose by about 5.6 points, given the two team’s SRS ratings and home field. Well, New York won by 31 points, meaning the game went 36.6 points in the wrong direction. That makes it, by this one method, the least-conforming game of 2018.

The table below shows every game this year. It’s fully sortable and searchable, so you can sort all games in week 1, or search by team.

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Search:

Wk	Team	H/R	Opponent	PF	PA	Tm SRS	Opp SRS	EXP MOV	ACT MOV	DIFF
1	New York Jets	@	Detroit Lions	48	17	-7.2	-4.6	-5.6	31	36.6
10	Buffalo Bills	@	New York Jets	41	10	-9.1	-7.2	-4.9	31	35.9
3	Buffalo Bills	@	Minnesota Vikings	27	6	-9.1	0.4	-12.5	21	33.5
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	New Orleans Saints	48	40	-4.1	14.0	-21.0	8	29.0
9	Atlanta Falcons	@	Washington Redskins	38	14	-1.2	-0.8	-3.4	24	27.4
7	Denver Broncos	@	Arizona Cardinals	45	10	1.4	-9.9	8.3	35	26.7
10	Tennessee Titans		New England Patriots	34	10	-1.1	3.8	-2.0	24	26.0
6	Dallas Cowboys		Jacksonville Jaguars	40	7	0.7	-3.4	7.1	33	25.9
4	Chicago Bears		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48	10	5.9	-4.1	12.9	38	25.1
1	Baltimore Ravens		Buffalo Bills	47	3	7.2	-9.1	19.3	44	24.7
10	New Orleans Saints	@	Cincinnati Bengals	51	14	14.0	-1.9	12.9	37	24.1
5	New York Jets		Denver Broncos	34	16	-7.2	1.4	-5.6	18	23.6
11	Indianapolis Colts		Tennessee Titans	38	10	1.7	-1.1	5.8	28	22.2
6	Philadelphia Eagles	@	New York Giants	34	13	-2.6	-4.8	-0.8	21	21.8
3	Detroit Lions		New England Patriots	26	10	-4.6	3.8	-5.4	16	21.4
11	New Orleans Saints		Philadelphia Eagles	48	7	14.0	-2.6	19.6	41	21.4

Showing 1 to 16 of 322 entries

The most nonconforming games of week 11: the Colts beating the Colts by 28 points, not 6 points, and the Saints beating the Eagles by 41 points, not 20 points.

And for reference, here is each team’s SRS rating this year.

Search:

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	New Orleans Saints	10	13.9	0.1	14.0
2	Kansas City Chiefs	11	10.3	0.7	10.9
3	Los Angeles Rams	11	9.5	1.1	10.5
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	7.4	1.1	8.5
5	Baltimore Ravens	10	5.6	1.6	7.2
6	Chicago Bears	10	9.3	-3.4	5.9
7	Los Angeles Chargers	10	5.6	-1.5	4.1
8	Seattle Seahawks	10	3.3	0.7	4.0
9	New England Patriots	10	4.4	-0.6	3.8
10	Houston Texans	10	4.0	-2.0	2.0
11	Indianapolis Colts	10	4.9	-3.2	1.7
12	Denver Broncos	10	-0.7	2.1	1.4
13	Dallas Cowboys	10	1.9	-1.2	0.7
14	Carolina Panthers	10	0.8	-0.4	0.4
15	Minnesota Vikings	10	1.2	-0.8	0.4
16	Green Bay Packers	10	0.4	-0.3	0.1
17	Washington Redskins	10	-0.7	-0.1	-0.8
18	Tennessee Titans	10	-0.8	-0.3	-1.1
19	Atlanta Falcons	10	-1.9	0.7	-1.2
20	Cincinnati Bengals	10	-5.6	3.7	-1.9
21	Cleveland Browns	10	-5.1	2.9	-2.2
22	Philadelphia Eagles	10	-2.9	0.3	-2.6
23	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	-4.6	1.2	-3.4
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	-5.6	1.5	-4.1
25	Detroit Lions	10	-4.1	-0.5	-4.6
26	New York Giants	10	-4.8	0.0	-4.8
27	San Francisco 49ers	10	-3.6	-1.5	-5.1
28	New York Jets	10	-4.6	-2.6	-7.2
29	Miami Dolphins	10	-5.7	-2.2	-7.9
30	Buffalo Bills	10	-10.8	1.7	-9.1
31	Arizona Cardinals	10	-10.9	1.0	-9.9
32	Oakland Raiders	10	-12.0	0.1	-11.9

What stands out to you? Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

References[+]

References
↑1	Note that these numbers will differ slightly from what PFR posts, because I count the London games as neutral site games, while PFR counts them as true home/road games.

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