You probably aren’t too surprised by this headline: until 2014, no team had ever repeated as NFC South champions (then the Panthers three-peated last year). From ’03 to ’06, all four teams won the division; then, all four teams won a division title from ’07 to ’10, too. It’s been an inconsistent division, but Carolina is now bringing some stability to the top of the NFC South.
That’s ironic, though, because since realignment and expansion in 2002, no team has been as inconsistent as Carolina. Consider the 2009-2010 Panthers; in ’09, Carolina went 8-8 but had an SRS of +3.9 (the .500 record was the product of an SOS of +3.5). But in 2010, the Panthers went 2-14, with an SRS of -13.2. That’s a change of 17.1 points, which is pretty significant. And over the last three years, Carolina has made two big changes: from +9.2 in ’13 to -3.1 in ’14 to +8.1 last year.
In fact, let’s take a look at how Carolina’s SRS changed in every year since realignment. That means starting in 2003, using the ’02 season as the N-1 year:
| Tm | Yr | Yr N SRS | Yr N-1 SRS | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| car | 2003 | -0.9 | -3.3 | 2.3 |
| car | 2004 | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.3 |
| car | 2005 | 5.1 | -0.7 | 5.7 |
| car | 2006 | -2.7 | 5.1 | -7.7 |
| car | 2007 | -5.8 | -2.7 | -3.1 |
| car | 2008 | 5.6 | -5.8 | 11.4 |
| car | 2009 | 3.9 | 5.6 | -1.7 |
| car | 2010 | -13.2 | 3.9 | -17.1 |
| car | 2011 | -1.3 | -13.2 | 11.9 |
| car | 2012 | 0.8 | -1.3 | 2.1 |
| car | 2013 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 8.4 |
| car | 2014 | -3.1 | 9.2 | -12.3 |
| car | 2015 | 8.1 | -3.1 | 11.2 |
| car | Avg | 0.4 | -0.5 | 7.3 |
The Panthers’ SRS rating has changed by, on average, 7.3 points over these 13 years. But, as you can tell from the chart, the team has been even more inconsistent of late, with a swing of at least 8 points in each of the last 3 years. If we want to talk about which teams are the most inconsistent, I think using a weighted average makes sense. If you take a weighted average [1]Multiplying the swing from ’14 to ’15 by 14 points, the swing from ’13 to ’14 by 13 points, the swing from ’12 to ’13 by 12 points….. and so on, with the … Continue reading, Carolina’s SRS has changed 8.8 points per year over the last 13 years. And that weighted average is the largest in the NFL:
| Rk | Tm | Weighted Avg |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 8.8 |
| 2 | NOR | 8.0 |
| 3 | TEN | 6.5 |
| 4 | NWE | 6.4 |
| 5 | BAL | 6.3 |
| 6 | IND | 6.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 6.2 |
| 8 | KAN | 6.1 |
| 9 | DAL | 6.1 |
| 10 | MIN | 6.0 |
| 11 | TAM | 5.9 |
| 12 | GNB | 5.9 |
| 13 | SFO | 5.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 5.6 |
| 15 | PHI | 5.5 |
| 16 | WAS | 5.4 |
| 17 | SEA | 5.3 |
| 18 | DEN | 5.3 |
| 19 | HOU | 5.2 |
| 20 | PIT | 5.0 |
| 21 | NYG | 5.0 |
| 22 | OAK | 4.9 |
| 23 | NYJ | 4.8 |
| 24 | DET | 4.7 |
| 25 | STL | 4.5 |
| 26 | CIN | 4.5 |
| 27 | BUF | 4.4 |
| 28 | MIA | 4.0 |
| 29 | ATL | 3.8 |
| 30 | SDG | 3.2 |
| 31 | JAX | 3.1 |
| 32 | CLE | 3.1 |
Using this weighted average, the two most inconsistent teams in the NFL are Carolina and New Orleans. Remember, we’re defining consistency as producing a similar SRS score each year. By another method, one could say the Panthers are pretty consistent, by winning the division three years in a row. And had Carolina’s 2015 season followed the team’s 2013 campaign, the Panthers would look more consistent, too. As it stands, Carolina went from below average to very significantly above average to below average to significantly above average over the last four years: that’s really inconsistent.
| Rk | Division | Avg WtAvgChange |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFC South | 6.59 |
| 2 | NFC North | 5.54 |
| 3 | NFC East | 5.48 |
| 4 | NFC West | 5.46 |
| 5 | AFC South | 5.25 |
| 6 | AFC East | 4.91 |
| 7 | AFC West | 4.85 |
| 8 | AFC North | 4.71 |
Interestingly enough, the NFC has the four least consistent divisions, while the AFC North stands out as the most consistent division in football.
What do you think?
References
| ↑1 | Multiplying the swing from ’14 to ’15 by 14 points, the swing from ’13 to ’14 by 13 points, the swing from ’12 to ’13 by 12 points….. and so on, with the change from ’02 to ’13 being multiplied by just 1. |
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