The median amount of points scored in Falcons games this year is 57 points; in Packers games, that number is 53 points. So why is the over/under 60 points?
The average isn’t much different: there have been 58.9 points scored in Atlanta games, and 52.0 points scored in Green Bay games. You may be surprised to learn that during Green Bay’s 8-game winning streak, there have been 51.6 points scored per game: 32.1 by the Packers, and 19.5 by Packers opponents.
Of course, what’s really driving these numbers is not the points scored by both teams in these games, but by both offenses. The Packers are averaging 28.0 points per game this year over 18 games, 32.1 points per game during this 8-game winning streak, and 34.8 over the team’s last 5 games. Atlanta is averaging 33.9 points per game over 17 games, and 38.0 points over their current 5-game winning streak.
So by that line of thinking, a 60-point over/under probably feels low. But it is currently (the line may change) tied for the 2nd highest over/under of any game since 1978, with the only other playoff game on the list:
| Winner | Loser | Year | Week | Boxscore | Line | Over/Under | PF | PA | Total Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | SFO | 2000 | 9 | Boxscore | -7 | 63 | 34 | 24 | 58 |
| NOR | DET | 2011 | WC | Boxscore | -10.5 | 60 | 45 | 28 | 73 |
| KAN | OAK | 2004 | 16 | Boxscore | -9.5 | 60 | 31 | 30 | 61 |
| CAR | STL | 2000 | 10 | Boxscore | 13.5 | 59.5 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| DEN | WAS | 2013 | 8 | Boxscore | -11 | 58.5 | 45 | 21 | 66 |
| STL | IND | 2001 | 16 | Boxscore | -13 | 58.5 | 42 | 17 | 59 |
| STL | ATL | 2000 | 7 | Boxscore | -18 | 58.5 | 45 | 29 | 74 |
| GNB | NWE | 2014 | 13 | Boxscore | -3 | 58 | 26 | 21 | 47 |
| IND | MIN | 2004 | 9 | Boxscore | -7 | 58 | 31 | 28 | 59 |
| CAR | STL | 2000 | 14 | Boxscore | 8 | 58 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
| DEN | PHI | 2013 | 4 | Boxscore | -11.5 | 57.5 | 52 | 20 | 72 |
What do you think? Over or Under?