A few months ago on Reddit, I saw this remarkable stat: including the postseason, Tom Brady is 19-9 in games where he throws at least 50 passes.
How remarkable is that? All quarterbacks have a 0.230 winning percentage in games where they have thrown 50+ passes, which means you’d expect a quarterback with 28 such games to win 6.4 of them, not 19 of them. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and Aaron Rodgers have won 19 games when throwing 50+ passes…. but have lost 54 times, a 0.260 winning percentage.
Brady’s success in these games is so remarkable that it might be too remarkable. What I mean by that is that if the average quarterback wins 23% of the time, and the greatest quarterbacks in the game win 26% of the time, seeing Brady win 68% of the time probably isn’t evidence that he’s the greatest quarterback ever — unless he’s about ten times better than every other great quarterback. I’ll let you speculate in the comments as to why the Patriots record is so incredible in these games. The table below shows the records of all quarterbacks in 50+ attempt games (minimum 4 such games), sorted by wins over expectation of a 0.230 winning percentage:
| Rk | Quarterback | First Yr | Last Yr | Teams | Gms | Exp Wins | Wins | Win % | Wins Ov Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | 2001 | 2017 | NWE | 28 | 6.4 | 19 | 0.679 | 12.6 |
| 2 | Donovan McNabb | 2000 | 2010 | PHI/WAS | 7 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 0.643 | 2.9 |
| 3 | Warren Moon* | 1989 | 1994 | HOU/MIN | 10 | 2.3 | 5 | 0.500 | 2.7 |
| 4 | Dan Fouts* | 1981 | 1987 | SDG | 5 | 1.1 | 3 | 0.600 | 1.9 |
| 5 | Andrew Luck | 2012 | 2015 | IND | 7 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.429 | 1.4 |
| 5 | Tony Romo | 2007 | 2013 | DAL | 7 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.429 | 1.4 |
| 7 | Dan Marino* | 1984 | 1999 | MIA | 16 | 3.7 | 5 | 0.313 | 1.3 |
| 8 | Derek Carr | 2014 | 2017 | OAK | 4 | 0.9 | 2 | 0.500 | 1.1 |
| 9 | Drew Bledsoe | 1994 | 2002 | BUF/NWE | 13 | 3.0 | 4 | 0.308 | 1.0 |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2006 | 2017 | PIT | 9 | 2.1 | 3 | 0.333 | 0.9 |
| 10 | Vinny Testaverde | 1988 | 2004 | TAM/BAL/NYJ/DAL | 9 | 2.1 | 3 | 0.333 | 0.9 |
| 12 | Randall Cunningham | 1987 | 1998 | PHI/MIN | 5 | 1.1 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.9 |
| 12 | Matt Hasselbeck | 2002 | 2009 | SEA | 5 | 1.1 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.9 |
| 12 | Joe Montana* | 1985 | 1994 | SFO/KAN | 5 | 1.1 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.9 |
| 15 | Brian Griese | 2000 | 2008 | DEN/TAM/CHI | 6 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.6 |
| 16 | Eli Manning | 2005 | 2017 | NYG | 11 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.273 | 0.5 |
| 17 | Rich Gannon | 1991 | 2002 | MIN/KAN/OAK | 7 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.286 | 0.4 |
| 17 | Matt Ryan | 2010 | 2013 | ATL | 7 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.286 | 0.4 |
| 17 | Matt Schaub | 2009 | 2012 | HOU | 7 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.286 | 0.4 |
| 20 | Brett Favre* | 1993 | 2009 | GNB/MIN | 12 | 2.8 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.2 |
| 21 | Peyton Manning | 1998 | 2014 | IND/DEN | 17 | 3.9 | 4 | 0.235 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Boomer Esiason | 1985 | 1996 | CIN/ARI | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Jim Everett | 1987 | 1994 | RAM/NOR | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2010 | 2015 | BUF/TEN/NYJ | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Chad Henne | 2009 | 2013 | MIA/JAX | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Jim Kelly* | 1989 | 1993 | BUF | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Kyle Orton | 2009 | 2014 | DEN/BUF | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Aaron Rodgers | 2015 | 2017 | GNB | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Jay Schroeder | 1985 | 1991 | WAS/RAI | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Richard Todd | 1980 | 1983 | NYJ | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 22 | Jameis Winston | 2015 | 2017 | TAM | 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.1 |
| 32 | Joe Flacco | 2011 | 2017 | BAL | 13 | 3.0 | 3 | 0.231 | 0.0 |
| 33 | Brad Johnson | 2001 | 2003 | TAM | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 0.200 | -0.1 |
| 33 | Neil O'Donnell | 1994 | 1997 | PIT/NYJ | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 0.200 | -0.1 |
| 33 | Kurt Warner* | 2003 | 2009 | STL/ARI | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 0.200 | -0.1 |
| 33 | Doug Williams | 1980 | 1989 | TAM/WAS | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 0.200 | -0.1 |
| 37 | Drew Brees | 2002 | 2016 | SDG/NOR | 19 | 4.4 | 4 | 0.211 | -0.4 |
| 38 | Blake Bortles | 2015 | 2017 | JAX | 6 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.167 | -0.4 |
| 38 | Philip Rivers | 2010 | 2015 | SDG | 6 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.167 | -0.4 |
| 40 | Joe Namath* | 1966 | 1970 | NYJ | 5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.100 | -0.6 |
| 41 | Troy Aikman* | 1994 | 1998 | DAL | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.9 |
| 41 | Andy Dalton | 2013 | 2016 | CIN | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.9 |
| 41 | Steve DeBerg | 1979 | 1991 | SFO/TAM/KAN | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.9 |
| 41 | Jeff George | 1993 | 1999 | IND/ATL/MIN | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.9 |
| 41 | Scott Mitchell | 1995 | 1997 | DET | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.9 |
| 41 | Mark Rypien | 1989 | 1995 | WAS/STL | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.000 | -0.9 |
| 47 | Carson Palmer | 2004 | 2017 | CIN/OAK/ARI | 9 | 2.1 | 1 | 0.111 | -1.1 |
| 48 | George Blanda* | 1960 | 1966 | HOU | 5 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.000 | -1.1 |
| 48 | Marc Bulger | 2004 | 2008 | STL | 5 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.000 | -1.1 |
| 50 | Sam Bradford | 2010 | 2016 | STL/PHI/MIN | 6 | 1.4 | 0 | 0.000 | -1.4 |
| 50 | Tommy Kramer | 1979 | 1985 | MIN | 6 | 1.4 | 0 | 0.000 | -1.4 |
| 52 | Neil Lomax | 1982 | 1988 | STL/PHO | 7 | 1.6 | 0 | 0.000 | -1.6 |
| 53 | Matthew Stafford | 2009 | 2017 | DET | 12 | 2.8 | 1 | 0.083 | -1.8 |
| 54 | Kerry Collins | 1998 | 2005 | NYG/OAK/CAR | 8 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.000 | -1.8 |