There were 644 fumbles during the 2017 season, with 276 being recovered by the opposing team. That’s a 43% fumble recovery rate for the defense, and a 57% fumble recovery rate for the offense; in other words, exactly 3 out of every 7 fumbles were recovered by the opposing team, and 4 out of every 7 fumbles were recovered by the fumbling team.
The Baltimore Ravens fumbled 19 teams, but only lost 4 of those fumbles. So the Ravens offense recovered 79% of those fumbles, when we would have “expected” them to recover 10.9 of those fumbles. Therefore, Baltimore recovered 4.1 more fumbles than we would have expected. On defense, Baltimore’s opponents had 22 fumbles, and Baltimore recovered 12 of those 22 fumbles. So the Ravens defense recovered 55% of all fumbles by opponents, when we would have “expected” them to recover 9.4 of those fumbles; therefore, Baltimore’s defense recovered 2.6 more fumbles than expected. Add it up, and there were 41 times that the football hit the ground during Ravens games, and Baltimore recovered 27 of them, which was 6.7 more than expected.
On the other side of things we have the New Orleans Saints. Despite being one of the best teams in the NFL last season, New Orleans had really bad fumble luck (perhaps that’s why they “only” went 11-5 despite being the most efficient team in the league). On offense, the Saints had 19 fumbles but only recovered 9 of them; that’s 1.9 fewer fumbles recovered than expected. And on defense, New Orleans forced 20 fumbles but only recovered 5 of them, which was 3.6 fumbles below average! Together, the Saints recovered just 14 of 39 fumbles in all games, which was 5.4 fewer fumble recoveries than expected.
There is a lot of randomness in fumble recovery rates, so you’d expect New Orleans and Baltimore to both regress towards the mean in 2018. The table below shows this data for all 32 teams. Here’s how to read the Bears line. Chicago had 24 fumbles on offense, and lost 10 of them. Therefore, Chicago had a 58% fumble recovery rate on offense, recovering 0.3 more fumbles than expected. On defense, the Bears forced 19 fumbles, and opponents lost 14 of them. So Chicago’s defense had a 74% fumble recovery rate, picking up 5.9 more fumbles than expected. In total, Chicago recovered 65% of all fumbles in Bears games, and recovered 6.1 more fumbles than expected.
| Rk | Team | Off Fum | Off FumL | Off FR% | FRAE (Off) | Opp Fum | Opp FumL | Def FR% | FRAE (Def) | Tot FR% | FRAE (Total) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | 19 | 4 | 79% | 4.1 | 22 | 12 | 55% | 2.6 | 66% | 6.7 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 24 | 10 | 58% | 0.3 | 19 | 14 | 74% | 5.9 | 65% | 6.1 |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 19 | 6 | 68% | 2.1 | 19 | 11 | 58% | 2.9 | 63% | 5.0 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 3 | 79% | 3.0 | 19 | 10 | 53% | 1.9 | 64% | 4.9 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 18 | 5 | 72% | 2.7 | 22 | 11 | 50% | 1.6 | 60% | 4.3 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 11 | 56% | -0.3 | 19 | 12 | 63% | 3.9 | 59% | 3.6 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 17 | 4 | 76% | 3.3 | 21 | 9 | 43% | 0.0 | 58% | 3.3 |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | 21 | 11 | 48% | -2.0 | 20 | 13 | 65% | 4.4 | 56% | 2.4 |
| 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 | 10 | 58% | 0.3 | 25 | 12 | 48% | 1.3 | 53% | 1.6 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | 14 | 7 | 50% | -1.0 | 20 | 11 | 55% | 2.4 | 53% | 1.4 |
| 11 | Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 6 | 65% | 1.3 | 19 | 8 | 42% | -0.1 | 53% | 1.1 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | 26 | 12 | 54% | -0.9 | 13 | 7 | 54% | 1.4 | 54% | 0.6 |
| 13 | Oakland Raiders | 33 | 14 | 58% | 0.1 | 20 | 9 | 45% | 0.4 | 53% | 0.6 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 | 13 | 52% | -1.4 | 26 | 13 | 50% | 1.9 | 51% | 0.4 |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | 20 | 6 | 70% | 2.6 | 23 | 7 | 30% | -2.9 | 49% | -0.3 |
| 16 | New York Jets | 25 | 12 | 52% | -1.3 | 19 | 9 | 47% | 0.9 | 50% | -0.4 |
| 17 | New England Patriots | 13 | 4 | 69% | 1.6 | 19 | 6 | 32% | -2.1 | 47% | -0.6 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 15 | 5 | 67% | 1.4 | 19 | 6 | 32% | -2.1 | 47% | -0.7 |
| 19 | New York Giants | 20 | 8 | 60% | 0.6 | 18 | 6 | 33% | -1.7 | 47% | -1.1 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 23 | 8 | 65% | 1.9 | 21 | 6 | 29% | -3.0 | 48% | -1.1 |
| 21 | Houston Texans | 25 | 11 | 56% | -0.3 | 14 | 5 | 36% | -1.0 | 49% | -1.3 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Rams | 29 | 14 | 52% | -1.6 | 23 | 10 | 43% | 0.1 | 48% | -1.4 |
| 23 | Arizona Cardinals | 19 | 7 | 63% | 1.1 | 20 | 6 | 30% | -2.6 | 46% | -1.4 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | 11 | 50% | -1.6 | 7 | 3 | 43% | 0.0 | 48% | -1.6 |
| 25 | Buffalo Bills | 17 | 6 | 65% | 1.3 | 25 | 7 | 28% | -3.7 | 43% | -2.4 |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 8 | 43% | -2.0 | 25 | 10 | 40% | -0.7 | 41% | -2.7 |
| 27 | Minnesota Vikings | 11 | 6 | 45% | -1.3 | 16 | 5 | 31% | -1.9 | 37% | -3.1 |
| 28 | Washington Redskins | 28 | 14 | 50% | -2.0 | 21 | 7 | 33% | -2.0 | 43% | -4.0 |
| 29 | Dallas Cowboys | 11 | 9 | 18% | -4.3 | 26 | 11 | 42% | -0.1 | 35% | -4.4 |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 10 | 8 | 20% | -3.7 | 23 | 9 | 39% | -0.9 | 33% | -4.6 |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 25 | 13 | 48% | -2.3 | 21 | 6 | 29% | -3.0 | 39% | -5.3 |
| 32 | New Orleans Saints | 19 | 10 | 47% | -1.9 | 20 | 5 | 25% | -3.6 | 36% | -5.4 |
| Total | 644 | 276 | 57% | 644 | 276 | 43% | 50% |