Last week, Neil brought us the latest iteration of the Manning Index, showing which quarterbacks have overachieved in the playoffs relative to expectation (based off of the Vegas line). I’m going to do the same today for coaches. A couple of introductory notes:

Neil described the exact methodology in his quarterbacks post, so I won’t waste time repeating it. However, I wanted to look at coaches over an even longer period, and 1950 sounded like a good cut-off. ^[1]Note that coaches, like Paul Brown, who coached before 1950 are included, but their pre-1950 stats are not. Since we don’t have point-spread data for games from 1950 to 1977 ^[2]One other piece of fine print: for the Super Bowls, I used the actual Vegas lines, since those are readily available., I simply used the projected point spread based on the differential between each team’s SRS ratings and by awarding the home team three points. So for pre-1977 games, coaches are credited with wins over expectation based on the SRS, and for post-1977, for wins over expectation based on the Vegas line. Here are the results.

Rank	Coach	First	Last	Teams	G	Act W	Exp W	Index
1	Joe Gibbs	1982	2007	was	24	17	12.3	4.7
2	Tom Coughlin	1996	2011	jax-nyg	19	12	7.9	4.1
3	Chuck Noll	1972	1989	pit	24	16	13.2	2.8
4	John Harbaugh	2008	2012	rav	12	8	5.3	2.7
5	Jimmy Johnson	1991	1999	dal-mia	13	9	6.6	2.4
6	Bill Belichick	1994	2012	cle-nwe	26	18	15.8	2.2
7	Vince Lombardi	1960	1967	gnb	10	9	6.9	2.1
8	Bill Parcells	1984	2006	nyg-nwe-nyj-dal	19	11	8.9	2.1
9	Tom Flores	1980	1985	rai	11	8	6	2
10	Rex Ryan	2009	2010	nyj	6	4	2	2
11	Weeb Ewbank	1958	1969	clt-nyj	5	4	2.2	1.8
12	Ken Whisenhunt	2008	2009	crd	6	4	2.2	1.8
13	Dan Reeves	1983	2002	den-nyg-atl	20	11	9.3	1.7
14	Bill Walsh	1981	1988	sfo	14	10	8.3	1.7
15	Hank Stram	1962	1971	kan	8	5	3.4	1.6
16	Don McCafferty	1970	1971	clt	5	4	2.7	1.3
17	Brian Billick	2000	2006	rav	8	5	3.7	1.3
18	Bum Phillips	1978	1980	oti	7	4	2.7	1.3
19	John Fox	2003	2012	car-den	11	6	4.7	1.3
20	Raymond Berry	1985	1986	nwe	5	3	1.7	1.3
21	Blanton Collier	1964	1969	cle	7	3	1.8	1.2
22	George Wilson	1957	1957	det	2	2	0.9	1.1
23	Buddy Parker	1952	1954	det	4	3	2	1
24	John Madden	1969	1977	rai	16	9	8.1	0.9
25	Jim Harbaugh	2011	2012	sfo	4	3	2.2	0.8
26	Jerry Burns	1987	1989	min	6	3	2.3	0.7
27	Joe Stydahar	1950	1951	ram	3	2	1.4	0.6
28	Marv Levy	1988	1996	buf	19	11	10.4	0.6
29	Vince Tobin	1998	1998	crd	2	1	0.4	0.6
30	Sam Wyche	1988	1990	cin	5	3	2.6	0.4
31	Buck Shaw	1960	1960	phi	1	1	0.6	0.4
32	Jim Lee Howell	1956	1959	nyg	4	2	1.6	0.4
33	Dom Capers	1996	1996	car	2	1	0.6	0.4
34	Bill Cowher	1992	2005	pit	21	12	11.6	0.4
35	Mike Holmgren	1993	2007	gnb-sea	24	13	12.6	0.4
36	Mike Shanahan	1996	2012	den-was	14	8	7.6	0.4
37	Mike Tice	2004	2004	min	2	1	0.6	0.4
38	Ray Malavasi	1978	1980	ram	6	3	2.6	0.4
39	Jim Haslett	2000	2000	nor	2	1	0.6	0.4
40	Ray Perkins	1981	1981	nyg	2	1	0.6	0.4
41	Norv Turner	1999	2009	was-sdg	8	4	3.7	0.3
42	Lou Rymkus	1960	1960	oti	1	1	0.7	0.3
43	Jerry Glanville	1987	1991	oti-atl	7	3	2.7	0.3
44	Pete Carroll	1997	2012	nwe-sea	7	3	2.7	0.3
45	Rich Kotite	1992	1992	phi	2	1	0.7	0.3
46	Dave Wannstedt	1994	2001	chi-mia	5	2	1.8	0.2
47	Gary Kubiak	2011	2012	htx	4	2	1.8	0.2
48	Mike Tomlin	2007	2011	pit	8	5	4.8	0.2
49	John Robinson	1983	1989	ram	10	4	3.8	0.2
50	Ray Rhodes	1995	1996	phi	3	1	0.8	0.2
51	Mike Holovak	1963	1963	nwe	2	1	0.8	0.2
52	Jeff Fisher	1999	2008	oti	11	5	4.8	0.2
53	George Halas	1950	1963	chi	2	1	0.8	0.2
54	Walt Michaels	1981	1982	nyj	4	2	1.8	0.2
55	Sean Payton	2006	2011	nor	8	5	4.8	0.2
56	Barry Switzer	1994	1996	dal	7	5	4.8	0.2
57	Andy Reid	2000	2010	phi	19	10	9.9	0.1
58	Wally Lemm	1961	1969	oti	3	1	0.9	0.1
59	Lou Saban	1963	1974	buf	4	2	1.9	0.1
60	Tom Landry	1966	1985	dal	36	20	19.9	0.1
61	Bart Starr	1982	1982	gnb	2	1	0.9	0.1
62	Ted Marchibroda	1975	1995	clt	6	2	2	0
63	Mike McCarthy	2007	2012	gnb	10	6	6	0
64	Bill Callahan	2002	2002	rai	3	2	2	0
65	Bud Carson	1989	1989	cle	2	1	1	0
66	Jim Mora	2004	2004	atl	2	1	1	0
67	Jack Del Rio	2005	2007	jax	3	1	1	0
68	Jon Gruden	2000	2007	rai-tam	9	5	5.1	-0.1
69	Art Shell	1990	1993	rai	5	2	2.2	-0.2
70	Leslie Frazier	2012	2012	min	1	0	0.2	-0.2
71	Jim Schwartz	2011	2011	det	1	0	0.2	-0.2
72	John Rauch	1967	1968	rai	4	2	2.2	-0.2
73	June Jones	1995	1995	atl	1	0	0.2	-0.2
74	Bruce Coslet	1991	1991	nyj	1	0	0.3	-0.3
75	Eric Mangini	2006	2006	nyj	1	0	0.3	-0.3
76	Butch Davis	2002	2002	cle	1	0	0.3	-0.3
77	Lindy Infante	1996	1996	clt	1	0	0.3	-0.3
78	Herman Edwards	2001	2006	nyj-kan	6	2	2.3	-0.3
79	Dick Nolan	1970	1972	sfo	5	2	2.3	-0.3
80	Chuck Pagano	2012	2012	clt	1	0	0.3	-0.3
81	Neill Armstrong	1979	1979	chi	1	0	0.3	-0.3
82	Steve Owen	1950	1950	nyg	1	0	0.3	-0.3
83	John McKay	1979	1982	tam	4	1	1.3	-0.3
84	Hampton Pool	1952	1952	ram	1	0	0.4	-0.4
85	Brad Childress	2008	2009	min	3	1	1.4	-0.4
86	Jim Hanifan	1982	1982	crd	1	0	0.4	-0.4
87	Forrest Gregg	1981	1982	cin	4	2	2.4	-0.4
88	Lovie Smith	2005	2010	chi	6	3	3.4	-0.4
89	Tony Sparano	2008	2008	mia	1	0	0.4	-0.4
90	Todd Haley	2010	2010	kan	1	0	0.4	-0.4
91	John Mackovic	1986	1986	kan	1	0	0.4	-0.4
92	Chuck Fairbanks	1976	1976	nwe	1	0	0.4	-0.4
93	Bobby Ross	1992	1999	sdg-det	8	3	3.4	-0.4
94	Dan Devine	1972	1972	gnb	1	0	0.4	-0.4
95	Nick Skorich	1971	1972	cle	2	0	0.5	-0.5
96	Joe Collier	1966	1966	buf	1	0	0.5	-0.5
97	Joe Walton	1985	1986	nyj	3	1	1.5	-0.5
98	Pop Ivy	1962	1962	oti	1	0	0.5	-0.5
99	Frankie Albert	1957	1957	sfo	1	0	0.5	-0.5
100	George Seifert	1989	1996	sfo	15	10	10.5	-0.5
101	Red Miller	1977	1979	den	5	2	2.5	-0.5
102	Jim Fassel	1997	2002	nyg	5	2	2.6	-0.6
103	Steve Mariucci	1997	2002	sfo	7	3	3.6	-0.6
104	Ron Meyer	1982	1987	nwe-clt	2	0	0.6	-0.6
105	Paddy Driscoll	1956	1956	chi	1	0	0.6	-0.6
106	Dick Jauron	2001	2001	chi	1	0	0.6	-0.6
107	Jim Caldwell	2009	2010	clt	4	2	2.6	-0.6
108	Joe Schmidt	1970	1970	det	1	0	0.6	-0.6
109	Monte Clark	1982	1983	det	2	0	0.6	-0.6
110	Hank Bullough	1978	1978	nwe	1	0	0.7	-0.7
111	Leeman Bennett	1978	1982	atl	4	1	1.7	-0.7
112	Mike Ditka	1984	1991	chi	12	6	6.8	-0.8
113	Sam Rutigliano	1980	1982	cle	2	0	0.9	-0.9
114	Allie Sherman	1961	1963	nyg	3	0	0.9	-0.9
115	Tony Dungy	1997	2008	tam-clt	19	9	9.9	-0.9
116	Dick Vermeil	1978	2003	phi-ram-kan	11	6	7	-1
117	Chan Gailey	1998	1999	dal	2	0	1	-1
118	Wayne Fontes	1991	1995	det	5	1	2.2	-1.2
119	Mike Sherman	2001	2004	gnb	6	2	3.3	-1.3
120	Bud Grant	1968	1982	min	22	10	11.3	-1.3
121	Mike Smith	2008	2012	atl	5	1	2.4	-1.4
122	Chuck Knox	1973	1988	ram-buf-sea	18	7	8.5	-1.5
123	Mike Martz	2000	2004	ram	7	3	4.5	-1.5
124	Sid Gillman	1955	1965	ram-sdg	6	1	2.5	-1.5
125	Buddy Ryan	1988	1990	phi	3	0	1.6	-1.6
126	Don Coryell	1974	1982	crd-sdg	9	3	4.6	-1.6
127	Marvin Lewis	2005	2012	cin	4	0	1.8	-1.8
128	Don Shula	1964	1995	clt-mia	36	19	20.8	-1.8
129	Jack Pardee	1977	1993	chi-oti	6	1	2.8	-1.8
130	George Allen	1967	1976	ram-was	9	2	3.8	-1.8
131	Wade Phillips	1993	2009	den-buf-dal	6	1	3	-2
132	Dennis Green	1992	2000	min	12	4	6.3	-2.3
133	Paul Brown	1950	1975	cle-cin	12	4	6.5	-2.5
134	Jim Mora	1987	2000	nor-clt	6	0	3.5	-3.5
135	Marty Schottenheimer	1985	2006	cle-kan-sdg	18	5	9.3	-4.3

• By clicking on the Index column, you can sort the table in reverse order. After doing so, you can see why this is called the Schottenheimer Index. Marty lost two games where his teams were 10.5-point underdogs (1985 in Miami, 1991 in Buffalo), but what really hurt him was an 0-8 record in games featuring a three-point (or smaller) spread. This includes The Drive, The Fumble, a game where his third-string quarterback threw a game-clinching 4th quarter interception when trailing by 5, and loss in Miami when Dan Marino threw two 4th quarter touchdowns to give Miami a 17-16 win. Schottenheimer also lost three games as five-point favorites: the Lin Elliot game against the Colts, in overtime against the Jets, ^[3]Some have understandably called this the Nate Kaeding game, since he missed a 40-yard field goal in overtime that would have won the game. I won’t do that for two reasons. One, the Chargers … Continue reading and the famous Marlon McCree game against New England.
• Joe Gibbs had two bad playoff games. While Washington may have been only a two-point favorite against the Raiders in Super Bowl XVII, the Redskins were the defending Super Bowl champions and just set the record for the points scored in the regular season. They were embarrassed 38-9. In their next playoff game eleven months later, Washington lost as nine-point home favorites to the Bears. In Gibbs’ 22 other playoff games, Washington went 17-5, with all five losses coming in road games where the Redskins were at least 3.5-point underdogs (and in four of them, the Redskins were getting at least a touchdown).
• Tom Coughlin led two of the five biggest playoff upsets since 1950, at least according to Vegas (or the SRS). The five largest underdogs to win: the Jets (+18) in Super Bowl III, the Patriots (+14) in Super Bowl XXXVI against the Rams, a bad 1977 Vikings team (SRS of -1.6) on the road against a Rams team that beat them 35-3 earlier in the year in Los Angeles, the Giants (+12.5) in Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots, and the Jaguars (+12.5) against the Broncos after the 1996 season. But Coughlin incredibly won four other games despite being touchdown underdogs, and is 4-1 when the spread is within three points.
• John Harbaugh is mostly here thanks to this great postseason run, as winning in Denver and in New England was worth 1.45 wins. If the Ravens beat the 49ers, he’ll jump into the third slot on the list.
• Obviously all of Vince Lombardi’s games came before 1977, so I used the SRS for most of those lines. In 10 playoff games, he was a favorite 8 times. The two exceptions came in 1966 at Dallas (+0.2) and 1967 at home against a Rams team (+1.2). In six of his playoff wins, the SRS (or, for the two Super Bowls, the Vegas line) put the Packers as at least 9-point favorites. Lombardi’s teams were too good to give him that much credit for exceeding expectations, although a seventh-place finish isn’t too shabby.
• Bill Parcells with the Giants: +2.9. With the Patriots: +0.1. With the Jets: 0 (two playoff games, won as a 9-point favorite, lost as a 9-point underdog). With the Cowboys: -0.9. Obligatory Tony Romo reference.
• I can’t add anything to the Bill Belichick discussion that would differ from what Neil wrote about Tom Brady, so I’ll just note that with the Browns, Belichick won as a 3-point favorite against New England and lost as a 3.5-point underdog against Pittsburgh.
• Paul Brown is an interesting case. The NFL does not officially recognize Cleveland’s records from their time in the AAFC, when Brown led them to five playoff victories and four championships (although the Pro Football Hall of Fame does). That caveat aside, Brown fares pretty poorly here. In the NFL, his playoff record was 4-8, and half of those wins came in 1950, the Browns first year in the NFL. Even ignoring his time in Cincinnati (0-3), he went 1-4 in games with a three-point spread and also lost to a far inferior Lions team 17-16 in the 1953 title game. Cleveland started that season 11-0, lost a meaningless final game, and then lost in Detroit. The 1951 Browns were just as good, but also allowed a fourth-quarter comeback to lose the title to the Rams. And despite being better than Detroit again in 1957, Cleveland was throttled 59-14. On the plus side, Cleveland did exact some revenge against Detroit in the middle, winning 56-10 in the 1954 title game.

Some final thoughts.

Doug came up with this idea six years ago, when he called it the Dungy Index (itself a revival of an earlier post). ^[4]Then I came up with my first Schottenheimer Index six years ago, although with a crude formula that does not hold up well on repeat reading (at least, in my opinion). As a reminder of the environment we were in at that time, consider Doug’s closing thoughts:

In the span of five weeks last year, Bill Cowher turned from A Coach Who Can’t Win The Big One to unquestionably one of the best coaches of his generation. I don’t have inside knowledge, but I can only assume that happened because he radically changed everything about the way he coached. I mean, what else could possibly explain how a Coach Who Can’t Win The Big One could win the big one?

As of right now, it appears that Tony Dungy might have completely and totally changed his coaching style and philosophy too, but we can’t be sure about that until next Sunday.

Spoiler: Dungy won on Sunday, and now he’s no longer a choker, either.

One final note. Please keep in mind that this measures a coach’s (team’s) postseason performance relative to his (team’s) postseason expectations. Knowing that Marty Schottenheimer scores poorly here does not tell us whether he deserves blame for underachieving in the postseason or credit for overachieving during the regular season. I also note that while I find this concept interesting, I make no claim that it holds any predictive value (to the extent such a concept makes sense when talking about retired coaches).