Did you know that the Titans are 13-0 when Derrick Henry rushes for at least 100 yards? Analysts who have given more than a few seconds of thought know this is the kind of statistic doesn’t tell us much about causality. I’ll let Doug Drinen explain why, as he did back in May 2001 in a classic article on the types of tricks people use to lie with statistics:

Thoughtful analysts have long known that while running successfully can help you win, winning definitely leads to more carries and more yards. That said, I wanted to actually investigate Henry’s 13 games with the Titans where he crossed the century mark and see: how much did it matter that he rushed for 100 yards?

Crossing the 100-yard mark did not help Tennessee win (3 games)

Week 4, 2019 vs. ATL – Boxscore

Henry rushed for exactly 100 yards in this game. His final carry was a 1-yard run on 3rd-and-11 that brought us to the two-minute warning. The Titans were up 24-10 at this point, so crossing the 100-yard mark was meaningless.

Week 13, 2017 vs. HOU – Boxscore

The Titans led 17-13 with 57 seconds remaining in the game. The Texans had just called their final timeout. Tennessee had 3rd-and-5 at their own 25-yard line, and a punt here would give Houston the ball back with a chance to win. However, Henry was sharing carries with DeMarco Murray at this point in his career, and with 57 seconds remaining, Henry had just 10 carries for 34 yards. On his final carry of the game, he rushed for 5 yards to pick up the first down and clinch the game… and then kept going for another 70 yards, scoring a touchdown to put the icing on the cake. Henry finished with 11 carries for 109 yards, but had he been tackled at the Houston 10-yard line and finished with 99 yards, the game was still over. A great run that clinched the game, to be sure, but him actually crossing the century mark was meaningless.

Week 6, 2017 vs. IND – Boxscore

Henry’s first 100-yard game, and a near mirror image of the game described above. Henry had 18 carries for 59 yards with 1:00 left in the game. The Titans, up by 7 points, had 3rd-and-5 at their own 28, with the Colts out of timeouts. A failed third down conversion would give Indianapolis a chance to tie the game, but Henry rushed for 5 yards to pick up the first down… and then 68 more. He finished with 19 carries for 131 yards, but crossing the 100-yard mark was not meaningful to helping the Colts win. Had he rushed for 6 yards, instead of 68 yards, the game still was over.

Rushing for 100 yards helped a little bit (3 games)

Week 12, 2019 vs. JAC – Boxscore

Henry rushed for 31 yards on his first 10 carries of the game. With 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Tennessee led 14-3. On Henry’s 11th carries of the game, he rumbled 74 yards for a touchdown, giving him 11 carries for 105 yards and giving Tennessee a 21-3 lead. The Titans would win 42-20, and Henry finished the day with 159 yards on 19 carries. Henry had a great game, but Ryan Tannehill had a superlative game (including two rushing TDs) and the Titans won by 22 points.

Week 17, 2019 vs. HOU – Boxscore

This was another Titans blowout — the Texans were resting their starters in week 17 — and Henry had a monster game, rushing 32 times for 211 yards. He hit the century mark on the final play of the 3rd quarter: an 8-yard run on 1st-and-10 at the Tennessee 37-yard line, up 21-14. I don’t think the Titans lose the game if Henry gets stuffed there, given how bad A.J. McCarron was for Houston. But we can’t pretend that Henry’s excellent game didn’t help Tennessee win, even if Tannehill’s highly efficient game and McCarron’s highly inefficient game were the primary factors.

Week 14, 2019 vs. OAK – Boxscore

This is a tricky one to analyze, as it could go in either the first category or this one. With 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Tennessee had 1st-and-10 at their own 30-yard line, up by a touchdown. At that point, Henry had 17 carries for 79 yards. He rushed for a first down and then some, picking up 24 yards and cracking the century mark. But Henry aggravated his hamstring in the 2nd quarter and again on this play; it turned out to be the final carry of the game for him. He exited with 18 carries for 103 yards. Had he been tackled 4 yards earlier (and finished the day with 99 yards), nothing really changes other than Tennessee having 1st and 10 from the 50 rather than the Oakland 46. On the other hand, Henry rushed for 103 yards and 6 first downs in the first 43 minutes of the game: that helped Tennessee win. That said, there’s no question who the real star was of this game: Ryan Tannehill had one of the best games of his career, picking up 15 first downs, 391 yards, and 3 touchdowns on 27 pass plays.

Helped a lot (3 games)

Week 19, 2019 vs. BAL – Boxscore

This was just 8 days ago, so you probably remember this one well. Already up 14-6, Henry’s 66-yard run in the 3rd quarter doubled his output on the day and put the Titans just six yards away from the end zone. Henry rushed for 195 yards and carried the Tennessee offense to a victory. Yes, maybe it was the defense that really deserves the credit for this victory, but Henry’s strong game helped the team win the game.

Week 14, 2018 vs. JAC – Boxscore

This was the turning point of Henry’s career, highlighted by his 99-yard touchdown heard ’round the world. Playing on Thursday night football, the Titans led 7-2 midway through the 2nd quarter. Following a failed 4th-and-goal run by Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars, Tennessee took over at their own 1-yard line. Henry had rushed for 30 yards on his first 5 carries before breaking out this classic, awe-inspiring, 99-yard touchdown run.

Tennessee won 30-9, and Henry rushed 16 times for 139 yards and 3 touchdowns… in addition to the 99-yard run. This was the best game of his career, and he powered the Titans to a victory.

Week 15, 2018 vs. NYG – Boxscore

This was a Titans shutout, 17-0, and Henry rushed 33 times for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns. Henry had 20 carries for 126 yards in the first half alone, crossing the century mark on a 4-yard rush on 2nd-and-3 with over 5 minutes left in the second quarter with Tennessee up 7-0. This was not one of those “winning the game >>>> Henry rushes for 100 yard” games, given how early in the game he rushed for 100 yards.

100-yard barrier hit when Titans were trailing (4 games)

You might be surprised to learn that in 4 of these 13 games, the Titans were trailing when the play began when Derrick Henry broke the 100-yard mark. In fact, the average points differential over these 13 games was just +3.0 at the start of the play where Henry first rushed for the 100 yards.

Week 10, 2019 vs. KC – Boxscore

This was the game from earlier this season, a wacky contest that Tennessee won in the final seconds. Henry was oustanding in this game: he had 23 carries for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns, with over 2/3s of his yards coming after contact.

The Chiefs led midway through the quarter, 19-13, with Henry having 55 rushing yards on 11 carries. The Chiefs had just scored a touchdown to take that lead, and the Titans responded with a 6-yard screen pass to Henry. On the next play, Henry rushed up the middle 68 yards for a touchdown, breaking the century mark and giving the Titans a 20-19 lead. Henry rushed for 65 yards and 5 first downs on his remaining 11 carries of the game, all in the final 18 minutes. There were lots of reasons why Tennessee won this game, but Henry’s 188-yard performance was certainly a big factor.

Week 18, 2019 vs. NE – Boxscore

This was just two weeks ago, another game you surely remember. The advanced stats don’t view this as a great game, and surely the Titans defense deserves a lot of the credit for defeating New England. On offense, Tennessee scored just two touchdowns and picked up 0 or 1 first down on 5 of the team’s first 7 possessions, albeit against perhaps the best defense in football. On the other hand, Henry literally seemed to carry Tennessee to victory, accounting for 75.0% of the offense and appearing to demoralize the Patriots. Henry hit the 100-yard mark in the first half, a rarity against a Belichick defense: he rushed for 6 first downs and 102 yards on his first 12 carries of the game. But at the moment he hit the century mark, Tennessee trailed 13-7 (although the Titans were driving for a touchdown). Henry finished with 34 carries for 182 yards in a throwback win over New England.

Week 13, 2019 vs. IND – Boxscore

With 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Tennessee trailed Indianapolis 17-7. Henry had rushed 13 times for 104 yards at this point in the game, and finished the day with 26 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown.

This was not the best Henry game — he had just 6 first downs and lost a fumble on the first play of the game. ^[1]In terms of win probability, his 26 carries improved the team’s win probability by less than 1%, with the fumble (-9%) being a big factor. In terms of EPA, Henry added +1.3 expected points … Continue reading The turning point here was a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, although Henry’s 13-yard touchdown on 4th-and-1 was probably the second biggest reason Tennessee won the game. Two other missed Colts field goals and two Colts interceptions were big factors, too. But whatever you want to say about Henry’s game, this was clearly not a “Titans winning late –> Henry runs for 100 yards” sort of game, and Henry actually outgained Tannehill in this game (138 net yards on 28 dropbacks).

Week 18, 2017 vs. KC – Boxscore

Finally, the weirdest 100-yard game of Henry’s career. This, of course, is also the only other time Henry has faced the Chiefs in the postseason. At the start of the 4th quarter, Tennessee trailed Kansas City 21-10 with the ball at the Chiefs 35-yard line. Henry had 15 carries for 71 yards. His 16th carry of the game was the first play of the 4th quarter; it was a run for no yards. The next play was Henry’s 17th carry, and it was the turning point of the game: he rushed 35 yards for a touchdown, eclipsing the 100-yard mark and cutting the deficit to 21-16. Henry rushed for 85 yards in the 4th quarter — he gained 50 yards on his next and final 6 carries — and he helped ice the clock in the final minutes. At the start of the 4th quarter, nobody expected Tennessee to win, or Henry to rush for 100 yards.

What Does It Mean?

I’ll leave this to you guys in the comments for now.