Perhaps the best of many Minnesota teams to not win it all
Four years ago, Andrew Healy wrote about the most/least lucky teams when it comes to winning rings. At the time, the Eagles were the most unlucky franchise, but Philadelphia has since won a Super Bowl! The Vikings were the second most unlucky team, while the Giants and Steelers were the two luckiest teams.
I like Andrew’s methodology and I’m not going to improve on it today, but wanted to run a simpler and quicker study. In each seasons since the Super Bowl era, count how many games above .500 each team was in each season. Seasons with .500 or worse records were given a zero. So the Vikings were +10 in 2017 (13-3), 0 in 2016 (8-8), +6 in 2015 (11-5), 0 in 2014 (7-9), and so on. Since 1966, Minnesota has been +162, with +70 of that coming from 1966 to 1978.
The 32 teams are a combined 3,742 games over .500 by this methodology (which, of course, gives zeroes in place of losing teams), and have won 52 Super Bowls. So a straight line method would tell us that, on average, teams win 1 Super Bowl for every 72 games above .500. Minnesota, therefore, has won 2.3 fewer Super Bowls than expected: also known as zero.
| Team | Gms Over .500 | SB Wins | SB W Ov Exp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 202 | 6 | 3.2 |
| Giants | 105 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 49ers | 192 | 5 | 2.3 |
| Patriots | 208 | 5 | 2.1 |
| Packers | 151 | 4 | 1.9 |
| Cowboys | 223 | 5 | 1.9 |
| Redskins | 129 | 3 | 1.2 |
| Ravens | 62 | 2 | 1.1 |
| Broncos | 171 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Raiders | 175 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Buccaneers | 47 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Jets | 76 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Saints | 77 | 1 | -0.1 |
| Seahawks | 86 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Texans | 20 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Dolphins | 168 | 2 | -0.3 |
| Bears | 108 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Colts | 181 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Jaguars | 46 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Lions | 55 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Panthers | 56 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Eagles | 129 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Cardinals | 63 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Chiefs | 143 | 1 | -1 |
| Browns | 79 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Rams | 156 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Falcons | 85 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Bengals | 88 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Bills | 93 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Chargers | 94 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Titans/Oilers | 112 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Vikings | 162 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Total | 3742 | 52 | 0 |
By this methodology, the Steelers and Giants are the top two teams, although the order is reversed from Healy’s methodology. The Giants have the lowest ratio of wins over .500 to Super Bowl wins (26.25 to 1), with the Ravens (31 to 1) also ahead of Pittsburgh. But Pittsburgh only needed 97 more wins over .500 to win two more Super Bowls than New York, which is why the Steelers are first by this formula.
The Vikings, though, are in a world of their own. If they had won just one Super Bowl, they would still be incredibly unlucky, in a tier with the Falcons, Bengals, Bills, and Chargers. Only the Oilers/Titans franchise (+10 in ’99, ’00, ’08; +8 in ’93, ’03; +6 in ’75, ’79, ’80, ’91, ’02) would be significantly less lucky than a 1-time Super Bowl champion Vikings.
But as it stands, and with the Eagles (would have been -1.8 had they lost Super Bowl LII) out of the picture, Minnesota is the clear best franchise to never win a Super Bowl.