The Vikings Had The Worst Fumble Luck In 2018

by Chase Stuart on April 13, 2019

The Vikings and Falcons were two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL in 2018. They happened to be the two teams with the worst fumble recovery rates last year, which is largely driven by luck. On the other side, the Seahawks and Rams had the best two fumble recovery rates, and were two of the most overachieving teams in football last year.

The table below shows the fumble numbers for each team last year when they were the ones with the football. Seattle and Washington had the best fumble recovery luck in this state of the world (i.e., teams on offense). The Seahawks and Redskins each had 18 fumbles, and only lost 4 fumbles. That’s a 78% offensive fumble recovery rate, the best in the league. The average team recovered 57% of their own fumbles. The final column, therefore, shows the number of own fumbles a team recovered over expectation. For Seattle and Washington, they each recovered 3.8 more fumbles than we would expect, since they had 18 fumbles (we would have expected them to recover 10.2 own fumbles, but actually recovered 14). The full list below:

Rk	Team	Fum	Fum Lost	Fum Rec	Fum Rec %	FR Ovr Avg
1	SEA	18	4	22	78%	3.8
1	WAS	18	4	23	78%	3.8
3	CAR	20	6	18	70%	2.6
4	DEN	18	6	18	67%	1.8
4	TEN	18	6	15	67%	1.8
4	KAN	18	6	22	67%	1.8
7	SFO	31	12	21	61%	1.4
8	HOU	19	7	20	63%	1.2
8	CLE	19	7	22	63%	1.2
10	DAL	23	9	23	61%	0.9
10	TAM	23	9	19	61%	0.9
10	BUF	23	9	23	61%	0.9
13	CIN	11	4	13	64%	0.7
14	PHI	29	12	20	59%	0.5
15	LAR	17	7	21	59%	0.3
15	LAC	17	7	16	59%	0.3
17	PIT	21	9	16	57%	0.1
18	ARI	23	10	21	57%	-0.1
18	CHI	23	10	19	57%	-0.1
20	NYG	16	7	11	56%	-0.1
21	BAL	25	11	18	56%	-0.2
22	NYJ	24	11	15	54%	-0.6
22	ATL	24	11	14	54%	-0.6
24	DET	14	7	11	50%	-1
25	NOR	18	9	19	50%	-1.2
26	GNB	22	11	16	50%	-1.5
27	IND	17	9	15	47%	-1.7
28	NWE	11	7	14	36%	-2.3
29	MIA	17	10	10	41%	-2.7
30	MIN	15	10	12	33%	-3.5
31	OAK	24	14	11	42%	-3.6
32	JAX	26	16	13	38%	-4.8
	NFL	642	277	551	57%	0

The Jaguars, with 16 fumbles lost on 26 fumbles, lost 4.8 more fumbles than expected (they recovered 10 of their own fumbles, rather than the 14.8 we would have expected).

What about when the other team fumbles? This is where the Rams really shined. Again, the expectation is the fumbling team recovers 57% of their fumbles, so the other team should recover 43% of opponent fumbles. Los Angeles opponents fumbled 14 times; we would expect the Rams opponents to recover 8 fumbles and the Rams to recover 6 of those fumbles. But in reality, Los Angeles opponents lost 12 fumbles, meaning the Rams recovered 6.0 more fumbles than expected! That was, by a large margin, the best rate in the league.

Rk	Team	Opp Fum	Opp Fum Lost	Tm Fum Rec%	Fum Rec OvAvg
1	LAR	14	12	86%	6
2	SEA	26	14	54%	2.8
2	HOU	26	14	54%	2.8
4	NOR	22	12	55%	2.5
5	CLE	27	14	52%	2.4
6	DAL	21	11	52%	1.9
7	IND	22	11	50%	1.5
8	DET	13	7	54%	1.4
9	NWE	20	10	50%	1.4
10	DEN	23	11	48%	1.1
11	WAS	24	11	46%	0.6
12	CAR	22	10	45%	0.5
13	ARI	20	9	45%	0.4
14	TAM	18	8	44%	0.2
14	GNB	18	8	44%	0.2
16	PIT	16	7	44%	0.1
17	TEN	14	6	43%	0
17	CIN	14	6	43%	0
19	CHI	21	9	43%	-0.1
20	MIA	17	7	41%	-0.3
21	JAX	15	6	40%	-0.5
22	KAN	29	12	41%	-0.5
23	LAC	18	7	39%	-0.8
24	OAK	10	3	30%	-1.3
25	BAL	15	5	33%	-1.5
26	NYJ	20	7	35%	-1.6
27	BUF	30	11	37%	-1.9
28	MIN	24	8	33%	-2.4
29	PHI	22	7	32%	-2.5
30	NYG	19	5	26%	-3.2
31	SFO	21	5	24%	-4.1
32	ATL	21	4	19%	-5.1
	NFL	642	277	43%	0

The worst? The Falcons opponents fumbled 21 times, but Atlanta only recovered 4 of those fumbles. That’s really bad luck: the Falcons picked up 5.1 fewer opponent fumbles than we would expect.

Let’s put this all together, and use the Seahawks as the example. Seattle had 18 own fumbles, and recovered 14 of those fumbles, which is 3.8 more own fumbles recovered than expected. Seattle opponents had 26 fumbles and Seattle opponents lost 14 of them; that means the Seahawks recovered 2.8 more opponent fumbles than expected. Therefore, adding both numbers together, Seattle recovered 6.5 more fumbles than expected in all fumbles in Seahawks games. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost 5.9 more fumbles than expected when the ball hit the ground in a Minnesota game. The full list below:

Rk	Team	Own Fum	Own Fum Rec	Own FR OvrAvg	Opp Fum	Opp Fum Lost	Team FR OvrAvg	Ovr FR OvrAvg
1	SEA	18	14	3.8	26	14	2.8	6.5
2	LAR	17	10	0.3	14	12	6	6.3
3	WAS	18	14	3.8	24	11	0.6	4.4
4	HOU	19	12	1.2	26	14	2.8	4
5	CLE	19	12	1.2	27	14	2.4	3.5
6	CAR	20	14	2.6	22	10	0.5	3.1
7	DAL	23	14	0.9	21	11	1.9	2.9
8	DEN	18	12	1.8	23	11	1.1	2.8
9	TEN	18	12	1.8	14	6	0	1.7
10	NOR	18	9	-1.2	22	12	2.5	1.3
11	KAN	18	12	1.8	29	12	-0.5	1.3
12	TAM	23	14	0.9	18	8	0.2	1.2
13	CIN	11	7	0.7	14	6	0	0.7
14	DET	14	7	-1	13	7	1.4	0.4
15	ARI	23	13	-0.1	20	9	0.4	0.3
16	PIT	21	12	0.1	16	7	0.1	0.2
17	CHI	23	13	-0.1	21	9	-0.1	-0.1
18	IND	17	8	-1.7	22	11	1.5	-0.2
19	LAC	17	10	0.3	18	7	-0.8	-0.4
20	NWE	11	4	-2.3	20	10	1.4	-0.9
21	BUF	23	14	0.9	30	11	-1.9	-1
22	GNB	22	11	-1.5	18	8	0.2	-1.3
23	BAL	25	14	-0.2	15	5	-1.5	-1.7
24	PHI	29	17	0.5	22	7	-2.5	-2
25	NYJ	24	13	-0.6	20	7	-1.6	-2.3
26	SFO	31	19	1.4	21	5	-4.1	-2.7
27	MIA	17	7	-2.7	17	7	-0.3	-3
28	NYG	16	9	-0.1	19	5	-3.2	-3.3
29	OAK	24	10	-3.6	10	3	-1.3	-5
30	JAX	26	10	-4.8	15	6	-0.5	-5.3
31	ATL	24	13	-0.6	21	4	-5.1	-5.7
32	MIN	15	5	-3.5	24	8	-2.4	-5.9

Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

Tagged as: Fumbles

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