This Is The Weakest Season For High-End Passing Since 1996

by Chase Stuart on December 19, 2017

Through 15 weeks, the league-wide Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average is 5.99, representing a small turn down from the high water marks of the past few seasons.

Tom Brady is second in the NFL in ANY/A at 7.72, just a hair behind Drew Brees (7.75). But because Brady has 52 more dropbacks than Brees this season, that makes Brady the better MVP candidate. Brady leads the NFL in passing value added, which is simply ANY/A minus league average ANY/A, with that difference multiplied by number of dropbacks. The table below shows the amount of passing value added by the 35 quarterbacks this season with 200 pass attempts.

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Rk	Quarterback	Tm	Att	Pass Yd	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	ANY	DB	ANY/A	Value
1	Tom Brady	NWE	516	4163	28	7	31	183	4225	547	7.72	952
2	Drew Brees	NOR	478	3854	21	7	17	121	3838	495	7.75	876
3	Alex Smith	KAN	466	3738	25	5	34	204	3809	500	7.62	817
4	Jared Goff	LAR	439	3503	24	7	24	157	3511	463	7.58	741
5	Carson Wentz	PHI	440	3296	33	7	28	162	3479	468	7.43	679
6	Philip Rivers	LAC	498	3838	24	10	17	113	3755	515	7.29	674
7	Case Keenum	MIN	427	3219	20	7	17	112	3192	444	7.19	536
8	Matthew Stafford	DET	501	3920	25	9	43	255	3760	544	6.91	505
9	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	532	4025	26	14	21	139	3776	553	6.83	467
10	Matt Ryan	ATL	417	3278	17	11	17	123	3000	434	6.91	403
11	Kirk Cousins	WAS	466	3636	24	9	38	320	3391	504	6.73	376
12	Blake Bortles	JAX	439	3147	19	8	21	109	3058	460	6.65	306
13	Russell Wilson	SEA	503	3669	30	11	37	263	3511	540	6.50	280
14	Deshaun Watson	HOU	204	1699	19	8	19	116	1603	223	7.19	269
15	Jameis Winston	TAM	329	2475	14	8	23	138	2257	352	6.41	151
16	Derek Carr	OAK	458	3113	20	10	17	86	2977	475	6.27	135
17	Dak Prescott	DAL	426	2964	21	11	27	151	2738	453	6.04	28
18	Josh McCown	NYJ	397	2926	18	9	39	264	2617	436	6.00	8
19	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	238	1675	16	6	22	168	1557	260	5.99	1
20	Carson Palmer	ARI	267	1978	9	7	22	150	1693	289	5.86	-36
21	Andy Dalton	CIN	411	2860	21	11	35	230	2555	446	5.73	-113
22	Cam Newton	CAR	433	2962	21	12	31	203	2639	464	5.69	-137
23	Tyrod Taylor	BUF	355	2314	13	4	36	199	2195	391	5.61	-144
24	Marcus Mariota	TEN	393	2823	12	14	23	149	2284	416	5.49	-205
25	Brian Hoyer	2TM	208	1282	4	4	16	112	1070	224	4.78	-270
26	Mitch Trubisky	CHI	271	1822	7	7	25	157	1490	296	5.03	-281
27	Eli Manning	NYG	498	3073	18	10	27	165	2818	525	5.37	-323
28	C.J. Beathard	SFO	224	1430	4	6	19	141	1099	243	4.52	-355
29	Jacoby Brissett	IND	411	2769	11	7	49	283	2391	460	5.20	-361
30	Tom Savage	HOU	223	1412	5	6	21	159	1083	244	4.44	-377
31	Brett Hundley	GNB	252	1534	8	8	24	153	1181	276	4.28	-470
32	Jay Cutler	MIA	389	2374	18	14	20	154	1950	409	4.77	-497
33	Trevor Siemian	DEN	349	2285	12	14	33	220	1675	382	4.38	-611
34	Joe Flacco	BAL	464	2701	14	12	25	179	2262	489	4.63	-664
35	DeShone Kizer	CLE	410	2398	9	19	31	180	1543	441	3.50	-1096

Brees may wind up winning the ANY/A crown, but if so, it won’t be a particularly impressive one. In the last 20 years, just once has the ANY/A winner been less than 2.00 ANY/A above average, and Brees — currently +1.76 above league-average — would finish with the second lowest ANY/A above average of any winner since the merger. The current record-holder in that category? Dan Marino in 1996, who averaged 6.65 ANY/A with a league average of 5.14, finishing at +1.51 in a hotly contested race.

The table below shows the ANY/A leader (or AY/A, for seasons pre-1969) in each league and in each season since the merger. To make sorting/searching easier, I have added a category called “post-m” or “pre-m” to represent seasons both before and after the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

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Year	Lg	Tm	Quarterback	Age	ANY/A	Lg Avg	Diff	Pre/Post
2017	NFL	nor	Drew Brees	38	7.75	5.99	1.76	post-m
2016	NFL	atl	Matt Ryan	31	9.03	6.22	2.81	post-m
2015	NFL	crd	Carson Palmer	36	8.41	6.26	2.14	post-m
2014	NFL	gnb	Aaron Rodgers	31	8.65	6.14	2.52	post-m
2013	NFL	phi	Nick Foles	24	9.18	5.87	3.31	post-m
2012	NFL	den	Peyton Manning	36	7.89	5.93	1.96	post-m
2011	NFL	gnb	Aaron Rodgers	28	9.39	5.90	3.49	post-m
2010	NFL	nwe	Tom Brady	33	8.25	5.73	2.52	post-m
2009	NFL	nor	Drew Brees	30	8.31	5.65	2.66	post-m
2008	NFL	sdg	Philip Rivers	27	8.04	5.70	2.33	post-m

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