Titans/Bucs Leads the List of Least-Conforming Games To Date In 2015

by Chase Stuart on December 5, 2015

In week 1, the Titans blew out the Bucs, in Tampa Bay, by the score of 42-14. Right now, the Bucs have an SRS rating of -5.9, but the Titans are even worse, at -7.7. Given the location of the game, we would “expect” Tampa Bay to have defeated Tennessee by about five points. So with the Titans winning by 28 points, that means Tennessee exceeded expectations by about 33 points. That’s the largest outlier of any game this year. Note that the Titans exceeded expectations by 36.5 points in week 1 of 2014, making it the second least-conforming game of last season.

Let’s start with the SRS ratings, presented below. These are through week 12, but also include the Packers/Lions game from Thursday night.

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	New England Patriots	11	12.0	-0.7	11.3
2	Cincinnati Bengals	11	9.2	1.5	10.7
3	Arizona Cardinals	11	11.7	-1.3	10.4
4	Kansas City Chiefs	11	6.6	3.1	9.7
5	Carolina Panthers	11	11.3	-3.3	8.0
6	Denver Broncos	11	4.4	2.5	6.9
7	Green Bay Packers	12	4.3	1.4	5.6
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	11	3.0	2.2	5.2
9	Seattle Seahawks	11	3.8	1.3	5.2
10	Minnesota Vikings	11	3.6	0.1	3.8
11	Buffalo Bills	11	0.8	1.4	2.3
12	New York Jets	11	3.5	-2.1	1.3
13	Chicago Bears	11	-2.7	3.5	0.7
14	Oakland Raiders	11	-1.2	0.5	-0.7
15	Houston Texans	11	-0.5	-0.7	-1.2
16	Baltimore Ravens	11	-1.3	-0.1	-1.4
17	Indianapolis Colts	11	-1.3	-0.2	-1.4
18	St. Louis Rams	11	-3.7	2.0	-1.7
19	New York Giants	11	1.5	-3.3	-1.8
20	Atlanta Falcons	11	2.1	-4.2	-2.1
21	Detroit Lions	12	-5.9	3.4	-2.5
22	Washington Redskins	11	-2.6	-1.1	-3.8
23	San Diego Chargers	11	-6.0	1.7	-4.3
24	Philadelphia Eagles	11	-2.5	-3.1	-5.6
25	Miami Dolphins	11	-4.5	-1.1	-5.7
26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11	-2.5	-3.3	-5.9
27	Jacksonville Jaguars	11	-5.7	-0.4	-6.2
28	Dallas Cowboys	11	-5.5	-1.1	-6.6
29	Cleveland Browns	11	-8.5	1.6	-7.0
30	San Francisco 49ers	11	-11.1	3.5	-7.6
31	Tennessee Titans	11	-5.2	-2.6	-7.7
32	New Orleans Saints	11	-6.8	-1.6	-8.4

The second-least conforming game so far this year also involved the Bucs. Here’s how to read the table below. In week 11, Tampa Bay traveled to Philadelphia, and won 45-17. The BUcs have an SRS rating of -5.9, while the Eagles have a rating of -5.6. Therefore, we would expect the Bucs to lose by 3.3 points (the expected MOV), but in reality, Tampa Bay won by 28 points, exceeding expectations by 31.3 points.

The table below is fully searchable and sortable, and displays every game from 2015.

Week	Winner/tie	H/R	Loser/tie	PF	PA	Tm_SRS	Opp_SRS	Exp MOV	Act MOV	Diff
1	Tennessee Titans	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	42	14	-7.7	-5.9	-4.9	28	32.9
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Philadelphia Eagles	45	17	-5.9	-5.6	-3.3	28	31.3
6	Miami Dolphins	@	Tennessee Titans	38	10	-5.7	-7.7	-0.9	28	28.9
1	San Francisco 49ers		Minnesota Vikings	20	3	-7.6	3.8	-8.3	17	25.3
10	Washington Redskins		New Orleans Saints	47	14	-3.8	-8.4	7.7	33	25.3
4	Atlanta Falcons		Houston Texans	48	21	-2.1	-1.2	2.0	27	25.0
12	Detroit Lions		Philadelphia Eagles	45	14	-2.5	-5.6	6.2	31	24.8
10	Chicago Bears	@	St. Louis Rams	37	13	0.7	-1.7	-0.5	24	24.5
8	Kansas City Chiefs	N	Detroit Lions	45	10	9.7	-2.5	12.2	35	22.8
3	Buffalo Bills	@	Miami Dolphins	41	14	2.3	-5.7	5.0	27	22.0
4	New York Giants	@	Buffalo Bills	24	10	-1.8	2.3	-7.1	14	21.1
6	Philadelphia Eagles		New York Giants	27	7	-5.6	-1.8	-0.8	20	20.8
7	Miami Dolphins		Houston Texans	44	26	-5.7	-1.2	-1.5	18	19.5
3	Arizona Cardinals		San Francisco 49ers	47	7	10.4	-7.6	21.0	40	19.0
11	Kansas City Chiefs	@	San Diego Chargers	33	3	9.7	-4.3	11.1	30	18.9
10	Houston Texans	@	Cincinnati Bengals	10	6	-1.2	10.7	-14.8	4	18.8
3	Seattle Seahawks		Chicago Bears	26	0	5.2	0.7	7.4	26	18.6
2	Arizona Cardinals	@	Chicago Bears	48	23	10.4	0.7	6.7	25	18.3
11	Green Bay Packers	@	Minnesota Vikings	30	13	5.6	3.8	-1.2	17	18.2
4	St. Louis Rams	@	Arizona Cardinals	24	22	-1.7	10.4	-15.2	2	17.2
3	Philadelphia Eagles	@	New York Jets	24	17	-5.6	1.3	-10.0	7	17.0
5	Philadelphia Eagles		New Orleans Saints	39	17	-5.6	-8.4	5.8	22	16.2
10	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Denver Broncos	29	13	9.7	6.9	-0.2	16	16.2
7	New Orleans Saints	@	Indianapolis Colts	27	21	-8.4	-1.4	-10.0	6	16.0
5	Arizona Cardinals	@	Detroit Lions	42	17	10.4	-2.5	9.9	25	15.1
8	Denver Broncos		Green Bay Packers	29	10	6.9	5.6	4.3	19	14.7
10	Minnesota Vikings	@	Oakland Raiders	30	14	3.8	-0.7	1.4	16	14.6
3	New Orleans Saints	@	Carolina Panthers	22	27	-8.4	8.0	-19.4	-5	14.4
6	Pittsburgh Steelers		Arizona Cardinals	25	13	5.2	10.4	-2.2	12	14.2
2	Dallas Cowboys	@	Philadelphia Eagles	20	10	-6.6	-5.6	-4.0	10	14.0
11	Dallas Cowboys	@	Miami Dolphins	24	14	-6.6	-5.7	-3.9	10	13.9
3	New England Patriots		Jacksonville Jaguars	51	17	11.3	-6.2	20.5	34	13.5
6	New Orleans Saints		Atlanta Falcons	31	21	-8.4	-2.1	-3.3	10	13.3
2	New York Jets	@	Indianapolis Colts	20	7	1.3	-1.4	-0.3	13	13.3
11	Carolina Panthers		Washington Redskins	44	16	8.0	-3.8	14.8	28	13.2
10	Detroit Lions	@	Green Bay Packers	18	16	-2.5	5.6	-11.1	2	13.1
2	Washington Redskins		St. Louis Rams	24	10	-3.8	-1.7	1.0	14	13.0
2	San Diego Chargers	@	Cincinnati Bengals	19	24	-4.3	10.7	-18.0	-5	13.0
5	Chicago Bears	@	Kansas City Chiefs	18	17	0.7	9.7	-12.0	1	13.0
8	Oakland Raiders		New York Jets	34	20	-0.7	1.3	1.0	14	13.0
9	New York Giants	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	32	18	-1.8	-5.9	1.1	14	12.9
2	Denver Broncos	@	Kansas City Chiefs	31	24	6.9	9.7	-5.8	7	12.8
4	Baltimore Ravens	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	23	20	-1.4	5.2	-9.6	3	12.6
8	St. Louis Rams		San Francisco 49ers	27	6	-1.7	-7.6	8.8	21	12.2
1	Miami Dolphins	@	Washington Redskins	17	10	-5.7	-3.8	-4.9	7	11.9
12	Chicago Bears	@	Green Bay Packers	17	13	0.7	5.6	-7.9	4	11.9
1	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Oakland Raiders	33	13	10.7	-0.7	8.4	20	11.6
5	Cleveland Browns	@	Baltimore Ravens	33	30	-7.0	-1.4	-8.6	3	11.6
7	Jacksonville Jaguars	N	Buffalo Bills	34	31	-6.2	2.3	-8.4	3	11.4
3	Green Bay Packers		Kansas City Chiefs	38	28	5.6	9.7	-1.1	10	11.1
4	Cincinnati Bengals		Kansas City Chiefs	36	21	10.7	9.7	3.9	15	11.1
5	Indianapolis Colts	@	Houston Texans	27	20	-1.4	-1.2	-3.3	7	10.3
2	Cleveland Browns		Tennessee Titans	28	14	-7.0	-7.7	3.8	14	10.2
1	New Orleans Saints	@	Arizona Cardinals	19	31	-8.4	10.4	-21.9	-12	9.9
10	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Baltimore Ravens	22	20	-6.2	-1.4	-7.8	2	9.8
8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Atlanta Falcons	23	20	-5.9	-2.1	-6.8	3	9.8
7	St. Louis Rams		Cleveland Browns	24	6	-1.7	-7.0	8.2	18	9.8
1	New York Jets		Cleveland Browns	31	10	1.3	-7.0	11.3	21	9.7
3	Atlanta Falcons	@	Dallas Cowboys	39	28	-2.1	-6.6	1.5	11	9.5
8	Indianapolis Colts	@	Carolina Panthers	26	29	-1.4	8.0	-12.4	-3	9.4
2	Pittsburgh Steelers		San Francisco 49ers	43	18	5.2	-7.6	15.8	25	9.2
10	New York Giants		New England Patriots	26	27	-1.8	11.3	-10.1	-1	9.1
5	New England Patriots	@	Dallas Cowboys	30	6	11.3	-6.6	14.9	24	9.1
6	Houston Texans	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	31	20	-1.2	-6.2	2.0	11	9.0
12	San Francisco 49ers		Arizona Cardinals	13	19	-7.6	10.4	-15.0	-6	9.0
8	New England Patriots		Miami Dolphins	36	7	11.3	-5.7	20.0	29	9.0
6	Minnesota Vikings		Kansas City Chiefs	16	10	3.8	9.7	-3.0	6	9.0
12	Cincinnati Bengals		St. Louis Rams	31	7	10.7	-1.7	15.4	24	8.6
9	Indianapolis Colts		Denver Broncos	27	24	-1.4	6.9	-5.3	3	8.3
9	Tennessee Titans	@	New Orleans Saints	34	28	-7.7	-8.4	-2.3	6	8.3
6	San Francisco 49ers		Baltimore Ravens	25	20	-7.6	-1.4	-3.2	5	8.2
9	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Dallas Cowboys	33	27	-5.6	-6.6	-2.0	6	8.0
12	New York Jets		Miami Dolphins	38	20	1.3	-5.7	10.0	18	8.0
6	Cleveland Browns		Denver Broncos	23	26	-7.0	6.9	-10.9	-3	7.9
8	Dallas Cowboys		Seattle Seahawks	12	13	-6.6	5.2	-8.8	-1	7.8
12	Houston Texans		New Orleans Saints	24	6	-1.2	-8.4	10.3	18	7.7
4	Detroit Lions	@	Seattle Seahawks	10	13	-2.5	5.2	-10.7	-3	7.7
6	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Buffalo Bills	34	21	10.7	2.3	5.4	13	7.6
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	New Orleans Saints	26	19	-5.9	-8.4	-0.5	7	7.5
12	Denver Broncos		New England Patriots	30	24	6.9	11.3	-1.4	6	7.4
12	Carolina Panthers	@	Dallas Cowboys	33	14	8.0	-6.6	11.6	19	7.4
2	Atlanta Falcons	@	New York Giants	24	20	-2.1	-1.8	-3.3	4	7.3
7	Oakland Raiders	@	San Diego Chargers	37	29	-0.7	-4.3	0.7	8	7.3
7	Seattle Seahawks	@	San Francisco 49ers	20	3	5.2	-7.6	9.7	17	7.3
12	San Diego Chargers	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	31	25	-4.3	-6.2	-1.2	6	7.2
12	Minnesota Vikings	@	Atlanta Falcons	20	10	3.8	-2.1	2.9	10	7.1
10	Buffalo Bills	@	New York Jets	22	17	2.3	1.3	-2.0	5	7.0
1	St. Louis Rams		Seattle Seahawks	34	31	-1.7	5.2	-3.9	3	6.9
7	Baltimore Ravens	@	Arizona Cardinals	18	26	-1.4	10.4	-14.8	-8	6.8
8	New Orleans Saints		New York Giants	52	49	-8.4	-1.8	-3.6	3	6.6
2	Green Bay Packers		Seattle Seahawks	27	17	5.6	5.2	3.5	10	6.5
11	Houston Texans		New York Jets	24	17	-1.2	1.3	0.5	7	6.5
1	Buffalo Bills		Indianapolis Colts	27	14	2.3	-1.4	6.7	13	6.3
1	Green Bay Packers	@	Chicago Bears	31	23	5.6	0.7	1.9	8	6.1
12	Seattle Seahawks		Pittsburgh Steelers	39	30	5.2	5.2	2.9	9	6.1
3	New York Giants		Washington Redskins	32	21	-1.8	-3.8	5.0	11	6.0
7	New York Jets	@	New England Patriots	23	30	1.3	11.3	-13.0	-7	6.0
5	Tennessee Titans		Buffalo Bills	13	14	-7.7	2.3	-7.0	-1	6.0
4	New York Jets	N	Miami Dolphins	27	14	1.3	-5.7	7.0	13	6.0
6	San Diego Chargers	@	Green Bay Packers	20	27	-4.3	5.6	-13.0	-7	6.0
6	New York Jets		Washington Redskins	34	20	1.3	-3.8	8.1	14	5.9
9	Oakland Raiders	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	35	38	-0.7	5.2	-8.9	-3	5.9
3	Minnesota Vikings		San Diego Chargers	31	14	3.8	-4.3	11.1	17	5.9
10	Pittsburgh Steelers		Cleveland Browns	30	9	5.2	-7.0	15.2	21	5.8
5	San Francisco 49ers	@	New York Giants	27	30	-7.6	-1.8	-8.8	-3	5.8
7	Minnesota Vikings	@	Detroit Lions	28	19	3.8	-2.5	3.3	9	5.7
7	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Carolina Panthers	16	27	-5.6	8.0	-16.6	-11	5.6
3	Denver Broncos	@	Detroit Lions	24	12	6.9	-2.5	6.4	12	5.6
12	Indianapolis Colts		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	25	12	-1.4	-5.9	7.5	13	5.5
5	Seattle Seahawks	@	Cincinnati Bengals	24	27	5.2	10.7	-8.5	-3	5.5
9	St. Louis Rams	@	Minnesota Vikings	18	21	-1.7	3.8	-8.5	-3	5.5
9	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	New York Jets	23	28	-6.2	1.3	-10.5	-5	5.5
11	Indianapolis Colts	@	Atlanta Falcons	24	21	-1.4	-2.1	-2.3	3	5.3
1	Baltimore Ravens	@	Denver Broncos	13	19	-1.4	6.9	-11.3	-6	5.3
2	Houston Texans	@	Carolina Panthers	17	24	-1.2	8.0	-12.2	-7	5.2
3	Baltimore Ravens		Cincinnati Bengals	24	28	-1.4	10.7	-9.1	-4	5.1
11	Buffalo Bills	@	New England Patriots	13	20	2.3	11.3	-12.1	-7	5.1
9	Buffalo Bills		Miami Dolphins	33	17	2.3	-5.7	11.0	16	5.0
12	Washington Redskins		New York Giants	20	14	-3.8	-1.8	1.0	6	5.0
4	New Orleans Saints		Dallas Cowboys	26	20	-8.4	-6.6	1.2	6	4.8
10	Arizona Cardinals	@	Seattle Seahawks	39	32	10.4	5.2	2.3	7	4.7
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Indianapolis Colts	13	16	-6.2	-1.4	-7.7	-3	4.7
1	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Atlanta Falcons	24	26	-5.6	-2.1	-6.5	-2	4.5
8	Houston Texans		Tennessee Titans	20	6	-1.2	-7.7	9.6	14	4.4
10	Carolina Panthers	@	Tennessee Titans	27	10	8.0	-7.7	12.7	17	4.3
6	Carolina Panthers	@	Seattle Seahawks	27	23	8.0	5.2	-0.2	4	4.2
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Washington Redskins	30	31	-5.9	-3.8	-5.1	-1	4.1
10	Miami Dolphins	@	Philadelphia Eagles	20	19	-5.7	-5.6	-3.0	1	4.0
1	San Diego Chargers		Detroit Lions	33	28	-4.3	-2.5	1.1	5	3.9
11	Detroit Lions		Oakland Raiders	18	13	-2.5	-0.7	1.2	5	3.8
4	Green Bay Packers	@	San Francisco 49ers	17	3	5.6	-7.6	10.2	14	3.8
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Jacksonville Jaguars	38	31	-5.9	-6.2	3.3	7	3.7
3	Oakland Raiders	@	Cleveland Browns	27	20	-0.7	-7.0	3.3	7	3.7
5	Green Bay Packers		St. Louis Rams	24	10	5.6	-1.7	10.3	14	3.7
8	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	16	10	10.7	5.2	2.4	6	3.6
9	San Francisco 49ers		Atlanta Falcons	17	16	-7.6	-2.1	-2.4	1	3.4
12	Baltimore Ravens	@	Cleveland Browns	33	27	-1.4	-7.0	2.6	6	3.4
6	Detroit Lions		Chicago Bears	37	34	-2.5	0.7	-0.2	3	3.2
4	Minnesota Vikings	@	Denver Broncos	20	23	3.8	6.9	-6.1	-3	3.1
4	Carolina Panthers	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	37	23	8.0	-5.9	10.9	14	3.1
8	San Diego Chargers	@	Baltimore Ravens	26	29	-4.3	-1.4	-6.0	-3	3.0
8	Minnesota Vikings	@	Chicago Bears	23	20	3.8	0.7	0.1	3	2.9
1	Dallas Cowboys		New York Giants	27	26	-6.6	-1.8	-1.8	1	2.8
6	Indianapolis Colts		New England Patriots	27	34	-1.4	11.3	-9.8	-7	2.8
9	Carolina Panthers		Green Bay Packers	37	29	8.0	5.6	5.4	8	2.6
4	Cleveland Browns	@	San Diego Chargers	27	30	-7.0	-4.3	-5.6	-3	2.6
5	San Diego Chargers		Pittsburgh Steelers	20	24	-4.3	5.2	-6.6	-4	2.6
7	Kansas City Chiefs		Pittsburgh Steelers	23	13	9.7	5.2	7.5	10	2.5
12	Buffalo Bills	@	Kansas City Chiefs	22	30	2.3	9.7	-10.5	-8	2.5
4	Oakland Raiders	@	Chicago Bears	20	22	-0.7	0.7	-4.4	-2	2.4
3	Houston Texans		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	9	-1.2	-5.9	7.7	10	2.3
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	New England Patriots	21	28	5.2	11.3	-9.1	-7	2.1
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	St. Louis Rams	12	6	5.2	-1.7	4.0	6	2.0
2	New England Patriots	@	Buffalo Bills	40	32	11.3	2.3	6.1	8	1.9
4	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Washington Redskins	20	23	-5.6	-3.8	-4.9	-3	1.9
5	Denver Broncos	@	Oakland Raiders	16	10	6.9	-0.7	4.6	6	1.4
11	Jacksonville Jaguars		Tennessee Titans	19	13	-6.2	-7.7	4.6	6	1.4
5	Atlanta Falcons		Washington Redskins	25	19	-2.1	-3.8	4.7	6	1.3
3	Tennessee Titans		Indianapolis Colts	33	35	-7.7	-1.4	-3.3	-2	1.3
11	Chicago Bears		Denver Broncos	15	17	0.7	6.9	-3.2	-2	1.2
13	Detroit Lions		Green Bay Packers	23	27	-2.5	5.6	-5.1	-4	1.1
9	Washington Redskins	@	New England Patriots	10	27	-3.8	11.3	-18.1	-17	1.1
12	Tennessee Titans		Oakland Raiders	21	24	-7.7	-0.7	-4.1	-3	1.1
9	Chicago Bears	@	San Diego Chargers	22	19	0.7	-4.3	2.1	3	0.9
1	Houston Texans		Kansas City Chiefs	20	27	-1.2	9.7	-7.9	-7	0.9
7	Dallas Cowboys	@	New York Giants	20	27	-6.6	-1.8	-7.8	-7	0.8
2	Minnesota Vikings		Detroit Lions	26	16	3.8	-2.5	9.3	10	0.7
2	Jacksonville Jaguars		Miami Dolphins	23	20	-6.2	-5.7	2.5	3	0.5
8	Cleveland Browns		Arizona Cardinals	20	34	-7.0	10.4	-14.4	-14	0.4
7	Atlanta Falcons	@	Tennessee Titans	10	7	-2.1	-7.7	2.6	3	0.4
11	St. Louis Rams	@	Baltimore Ravens	13	16	-1.7	-1.4	-3.4	-3	0.4
9	Cincinnati Bengals		Cleveland Browns	31	10	10.7	-7.0	20.7	21	0.3
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Dallas Cowboys	10	6	-5.9	-6.6	3.7	4	0.3
2	Oakland Raiders		Baltimore Ravens	37	33	-0.7	-1.4	3.7	4	0.3
11	Seattle Seahawks		San Francisco 49ers	29	13	5.2	-7.6	15.7	16	0.3
11	Arizona Cardinals		Cincinnati Bengals	34	31	10.4	10.7	2.7	3	0.3
1	Jacksonville Jaguars		Carolina Panthers	9	20	-6.2	8.0	-11.2	-11	0.2
1	Carolina Panthers	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	20	9	8.0	-6.2	11.2	11	-0.2
11	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Arizona Cardinals	31	34	10.7	10.4	-2.7	-3	-0.3
11	San Francisco 49ers	@	Seattle Seahawks	13	29	-7.6	5.2	-15.7	-16	-0.3
2	Baltimore Ravens	@	Oakland Raiders	33	37	-1.4	-0.7	-3.7	-4	-0.3
10	Dallas Cowboys	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	-6.6	-5.9	-3.7	-4	-0.3
9	Cleveland Browns	@	Cincinnati Bengals	10	31	-7.0	10.7	-20.7	-21	-0.3
11	Baltimore Ravens		St. Louis Rams	16	13	-1.4	-1.7	3.4	3	-0.4
7	Tennessee Titans		Atlanta Falcons	7	10	-7.7	-2.1	-2.6	-3	-0.4
8	Arizona Cardinals	@	Cleveland Browns	34	20	10.4	-7.0	14.4	14	-0.4
2	Miami Dolphins	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	20	23	-5.7	-6.2	-2.5	-3	-0.5
2	Detroit Lions	@	Minnesota Vikings	16	26	-2.5	3.8	-9.3	-10	-0.7
7	New York Giants		Dallas Cowboys	27	20	-1.8	-6.6	7.8	7	-0.8
1	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Houston Texans	27	20	9.7	-1.2	7.9	7	-0.9
9	San Diego Chargers		Chicago Bears	19	22	-4.3	0.7	-2.1	-3	-0.9
12	Oakland Raiders	@	Tennessee Titans	24	21	-0.7	-7.7	4.1	3	-1.1
9	New England Patriots		Washington Redskins	27	10	11.3	-3.8	18.1	17	-1.1
13	Green Bay Packers	@	Detroit Lions	27	23	5.6	-2.5	5.1	4	-1.1
11	Denver Broncos	@	Chicago Bears	17	15	6.9	0.7	3.2	2	-1.2
3	Indianapolis Colts	@	Tennessee Titans	35	33	-1.4	-7.7	3.3	2	-1.3
5	Washington Redskins	@	Atlanta Falcons	19	25	-3.8	-2.1	-4.7	-6	-1.3
11	Tennessee Titans	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	13	19	-7.7	-6.2	-4.6	-6	-1.4
5	Oakland Raiders		Denver Broncos	10	16	-0.7	6.9	-4.6	-6	-1.4
4	Washington Redskins		Philadelphia Eagles	23	20	-3.8	-5.6	4.9	3	-1.9
2	Buffalo Bills		New England Patriots	32	40	2.3	11.3	-6.1	-8	-1.9
3	St. Louis Rams		Pittsburgh Steelers	6	12	-1.7	5.2	-4.0	-6	-2.0
1	New England Patriots		Pittsburgh Steelers	28	21	11.3	5.2	9.1	7	-2.1
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Houston Texans	9	19	-5.9	-1.2	-7.7	-10	-2.3
4	Chicago Bears		Oakland Raiders	22	20	0.7	-0.7	4.4	2	-2.4
12	Kansas City Chiefs		Buffalo Bills	30	22	9.7	2.3	10.5	8	-2.5
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Kansas City Chiefs	13	23	5.2	9.7	-7.5	-10	-2.5
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	San Diego Chargers	24	20	5.2	-4.3	6.6	4	-2.6
4	San Diego Chargers		Cleveland Browns	30	27	-4.3	-7.0	5.6	3	-2.6
9	Green Bay Packers	@	Carolina Panthers	29	37	5.6	8.0	-5.4	-8	-2.6
6	New England Patriots	@	Indianapolis Colts	34	27	11.3	-1.4	9.8	7	-2.8
1	New York Giants	@	Dallas Cowboys	26	27	-1.8	-6.6	1.8	-1	-2.8
8	Chicago Bears		Minnesota Vikings	20	23	0.7	3.8	-0.1	-3	-2.9
8	Baltimore Ravens		San Diego Chargers	29	26	-1.4	-4.3	6.0	3	-3.0
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Carolina Panthers	23	37	-5.9	8.0	-10.9	-14	-3.1
4	Denver Broncos		Minnesota Vikings	23	20	6.9	3.8	6.1	3	-3.1
6	Chicago Bears	@	Detroit Lions	34	37	0.7	-2.5	0.2	-3	-3.2
12	Cleveland Browns		Baltimore Ravens	27	33	-7.0	-1.4	-2.6	-6	-3.4
9	Atlanta Falcons	@	San Francisco 49ers	16	17	-2.1	-7.6	2.4	-1	-3.4
8	Pittsburgh Steelers		Cincinnati Bengals	10	16	5.2	10.7	-2.4	-6	-3.6
5	St. Louis Rams	@	Green Bay Packers	10	24	-1.7	5.6	-10.3	-14	-3.7
3	Cleveland Browns		Oakland Raiders	20	27	-7.0	-0.7	-3.3	-7	-3.7
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31	38	-6.2	-5.9	-3.3	-7	-3.7
4	San Francisco 49ers		Green Bay Packers	3	17	-7.6	5.6	-10.2	-14	-3.8
11	Oakland Raiders	@	Detroit Lions	13	18	-0.7	-2.5	-1.2	-5	-3.8
1	Detroit Lions	@	San Diego Chargers	28	33	-2.5	-4.3	-1.1	-5	-3.9
10	Philadelphia Eagles		Miami Dolphins	19	20	-5.6	-5.7	3.0	-1	-4.0
7	Washington Redskins		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31	30	-3.8	-5.9	5.1	1	-4.1
6	Seattle Seahawks		Carolina Panthers	23	27	5.2	8.0	0.2	-4	-4.2
10	Tennessee Titans		Carolina Panthers	10	27	-7.7	8.0	-12.7	-17	-4.3
8	Tennessee Titans	@	Houston Texans	6	20	-7.7	-1.2	-9.6	-14	-4.4
1	Atlanta Falcons		Philadelphia Eagles	26	24	-2.1	-5.6	6.5	2	-4.5
4	Indianapolis Colts		Jacksonville Jaguars	16	13	-1.4	-6.2	7.7	3	-4.7
10	Seattle Seahawks		Arizona Cardinals	32	39	5.2	10.4	-2.3	-7	-4.7
4	Dallas Cowboys	@	New Orleans Saints	20	26	-6.6	-8.4	-1.2	-6	-4.8
12	New York Giants	@	Washington Redskins	14	20	-1.8	-3.8	-1.0	-6	-5.0
9	Miami Dolphins	@	Buffalo Bills	17	33	-5.7	2.3	-11.0	-16	-5.0
11	New England Patriots		Buffalo Bills	20	13	11.3	2.3	12.1	7	-5.1
3	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Baltimore Ravens	28	24	10.7	-1.4	9.1	4	-5.1
2	Carolina Panthers		Houston Texans	24	17	8.0	-1.2	12.2	7	-5.2
1	Denver Broncos		Baltimore Ravens	19	13	6.9	-1.4	11.3	6	-5.3
11	Atlanta Falcons		Indianapolis Colts	21	24	-2.1	-1.4	2.3	-3	-5.3
9	New York Jets		Jacksonville Jaguars	28	23	1.3	-6.2	10.5	5	-5.5
9	Minnesota Vikings		St. Louis Rams	21	18	3.8	-1.7	8.5	3	-5.5
5	Cincinnati Bengals		Seattle Seahawks	27	24	10.7	5.2	8.5	3	-5.5
12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Indianapolis Colts	12	25	-5.9	-1.4	-7.5	-13	-5.5
3	Detroit Lions		Denver Broncos	12	24	-2.5	6.9	-6.4	-12	-5.6
7	Carolina Panthers		Philadelphia Eagles	27	16	8.0	-5.6	16.6	11	-5.6
7	Detroit Lions		Minnesota Vikings	19	28	-2.5	3.8	-3.3	-9	-5.7
5	New York Giants		San Francisco 49ers	30	27	-1.8	-7.6	8.8	3	-5.8
10	Cleveland Browns	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	30	-7.0	5.2	-15.2	-21	-5.8
3	San Diego Chargers	@	Minnesota Vikings	14	31	-4.3	3.8	-11.1	-17	-5.9
9	Pittsburgh Steelers		Oakland Raiders	38	35	5.2	-0.7	8.9	3	-5.9
6	Washington Redskins	@	New York Jets	20	34	-3.8	1.3	-8.1	-14	-5.9
6	Green Bay Packers		San Diego Chargers	27	20	5.6	-4.3	13.0	7	-6.0
4	Miami Dolphins	N	New York Jets	14	27	-5.7	1.3	-7.0	-13	-6.0
5	Buffalo Bills	@	Tennessee Titans	14	13	2.3	-7.7	7.0	1	-6.0
7	New England Patriots		New York Jets	30	23	11.3	1.3	13.0	7	-6.0
3	Washington Redskins	@	New York Giants	21	32	-3.8	-1.8	-5.0	-11	-6.0
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Seattle Seahawks	30	39	5.2	5.2	-2.9	-9	-6.1
1	Chicago Bears		Green Bay Packers	23	31	0.7	5.6	-1.9	-8	-6.1
1	Indianapolis Colts	@	Buffalo Bills	14	27	-1.4	2.3	-6.7	-13	-6.3
11	New York Jets	@	Houston Texans	17	24	1.3	-1.2	-0.5	-7	-6.5
2	Seattle Seahawks	@	Green Bay Packers	17	27	5.2	5.6	-3.5	-10	-6.5
8	New York Giants	@	New Orleans Saints	49	52	-1.8	-8.4	3.6	-3	-6.6
7	Arizona Cardinals		Baltimore Ravens	26	18	10.4	-1.4	14.8	8	-6.8
1	Seattle Seahawks	@	St. Louis Rams	31	34	5.2	-1.7	3.9	-3	-6.9
10	New York Jets		Buffalo Bills	17	22	1.3	2.3	2.0	-5	-7.0
12	Atlanta Falcons		Minnesota Vikings	10	20	-2.1	3.8	-2.9	-10	-7.1
12	Jacksonville Jaguars		San Diego Chargers	25	31	-6.2	-4.3	1.2	-6	-7.2
7	San Francisco 49ers		Seattle Seahawks	3	20	-7.6	5.2	-9.7	-17	-7.3
7	San Diego Chargers		Oakland Raiders	29	37	-4.3	-0.7	-0.7	-8	-7.3
2	New York Giants		Atlanta Falcons	20	24	-1.8	-2.1	3.3	-4	-7.3
12	Dallas Cowboys		Carolina Panthers	14	33	-6.6	8.0	-11.6	-19	-7.4
12	New England Patriots	@	Denver Broncos	24	30	11.3	6.9	1.4	-6	-7.4
2	New Orleans Saints		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	26	-8.4	-5.9	0.5	-7	-7.5
6	Buffalo Bills		Cincinnati Bengals	21	34	2.3	10.7	-5.4	-13	-7.6
4	Seattle Seahawks		Detroit Lions	13	10	5.2	-2.5	10.7	3	-7.7
12	New Orleans Saints	@	Houston Texans	6	24	-8.4	-1.2	-10.3	-18	-7.7
8	Seattle Seahawks	@	Dallas Cowboys	13	12	5.2	-6.6	8.8	1	-7.8
6	Denver Broncos	@	Cleveland Browns	26	23	6.9	-7.0	10.9	3	-7.9
12	Miami Dolphins	@	New York Jets	20	38	-5.7	1.3	-10.0	-18	-8.0
9	Dallas Cowboys		Philadelphia Eagles	27	33	-6.6	-5.6	2.0	-6	-8.0
6	Baltimore Ravens	@	San Francisco 49ers	20	25	-1.4	-7.6	3.2	-5	-8.2
9	New Orleans Saints		Tennessee Titans	28	34	-8.4	-7.7	2.3	-6	-8.3
9	Denver Broncos	@	Indianapolis Colts	24	27	6.9	-1.4	5.3	-3	-8.3
12	St. Louis Rams	@	Cincinnati Bengals	7	31	-1.7	10.7	-15.4	-24	-8.6
6	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Minnesota Vikings	10	16	9.7	3.8	3.0	-6	-9.0
8	Miami Dolphins	@	New England Patriots	7	36	-5.7	11.3	-20.0	-29	-9.0
12	Arizona Cardinals	@	San Francisco 49ers	19	13	10.4	-7.6	15.0	6	-9.0
6	Jacksonville Jaguars		Houston Texans	20	31	-6.2	-1.2	-2.0	-11	-9.0
5	Dallas Cowboys		New England Patriots	6	30	-6.6	11.3	-14.9	-24	-9.1
10	New England Patriots	@	New York Giants	27	26	11.3	-1.8	10.1	1	-9.1
2	San Francisco 49ers	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	18	43	-7.6	5.2	-15.8	-25	-9.2
8	Carolina Panthers		Indianapolis Colts	29	26	8.0	-1.4	12.4	3	-9.4
3	Dallas Cowboys		Atlanta Falcons	28	39	-6.6	-2.1	-1.5	-11	-9.5
1	Cleveland Browns	@	New York Jets	10	31	-7.0	1.3	-11.3	-21	-9.7
7	Cleveland Browns	@	St. Louis Rams	6	24	-7.0	-1.7	-8.2	-18	-9.8
8	Atlanta Falcons		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20	23	-2.1	-5.9	6.8	-3	-9.8
10	Baltimore Ravens		Jacksonville Jaguars	20	22	-1.4	-6.2	7.8	-2	-9.8
1	Arizona Cardinals		New Orleans Saints	31	19	10.4	-8.4	21.9	12	-9.9
2	Tennessee Titans	@	Cleveland Browns	14	28	-7.7	-7.0	-3.8	-14	-10.2
5	Houston Texans		Indianapolis Colts	20	27	-1.2	-1.4	3.3	-7	-10.3
4	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Cincinnati Bengals	21	36	9.7	10.7	-3.9	-15	-11.1
3	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Green Bay Packers	28	38	9.7	5.6	1.1	-10	-11.1
7	Buffalo Bills	N	Jacksonville Jaguars	31	34	2.3	-6.2	8.4	-3	-11.4
5	Baltimore Ravens		Cleveland Browns	30	33	-1.4	-7.0	8.6	-3	-11.6
1	Oakland Raiders		Cincinnati Bengals	13	33	-0.7	10.7	-8.4	-20	-11.6
12	Green Bay Packers		Chicago Bears	13	17	5.6	0.7	7.9	-4	-11.9
1	Washington Redskins		Miami Dolphins	10	17	-3.8	-5.7	4.9	-7	-11.9
8	San Francisco 49ers	@	St. Louis Rams	6	27	-7.6	-1.7	-8.8	-21	-12.2
4	Pittsburgh Steelers		Baltimore Ravens	20	23	5.2	-1.4	9.6	-3	-12.6
2	Kansas City Chiefs		Denver Broncos	24	31	9.7	6.9	5.8	-7	-12.8
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		New York Giants	18	32	-5.9	-1.8	-1.1	-14	-12.9
8	New York Jets	@	Oakland Raiders	20	34	1.3	-0.7	-1.0	-14	-13.0
5	Kansas City Chiefs		Chicago Bears	17	18	9.7	0.7	12.0	-1	-13.0
2	Cincinnati Bengals		San Diego Chargers	24	19	10.7	-4.3	18.0	5	-13.0
2	St. Louis Rams	@	Washington Redskins	10	24	-1.7	-3.8	-1.0	-14	-13.0
10	Green Bay Packers		Detroit Lions	16	18	5.6	-2.5	11.1	-2	-13.1
11	Washington Redskins	@	Carolina Panthers	16	44	-3.8	8.0	-14.8	-28	-13.2
2	Indianapolis Colts		New York Jets	7	20	-1.4	1.3	0.3	-13	-13.3
6	Atlanta Falcons	@	New Orleans Saints	21	31	-2.1	-8.4	3.3	-10	-13.3
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	New England Patriots	17	51	-6.2	11.3	-20.5	-34	-13.5
11	Miami Dolphins		Dallas Cowboys	14	24	-5.7	-6.6	3.9	-10	-13.9
2	Philadelphia Eagles		Dallas Cowboys	10	20	-5.6	-6.6	4.0	-10	-14.0
6	Arizona Cardinals	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	25	10.4	5.2	2.2	-12	-14.2
3	Carolina Panthers		New Orleans Saints	27	22	8.0	-8.4	19.4	5	-14.4
10	Oakland Raiders		Minnesota Vikings	14	30	-0.7	3.8	-1.4	-16	-14.6
8	Green Bay Packers	@	Denver Broncos	10	29	5.6	6.9	-4.3	-19	-14.7
5	Detroit Lions		Arizona Cardinals	17	42	-2.5	10.4	-9.9	-25	-15.1
7	Indianapolis Colts		New Orleans Saints	21	27	-1.4	-8.4	10.0	-6	-16.0
10	Denver Broncos		Kansas City Chiefs	13	29	6.9	9.7	0.2	-16	-16.2
5	New Orleans Saints	@	Philadelphia Eagles	17	39	-8.4	-5.6	-5.8	-22	-16.2
3	New York Jets		Philadelphia Eagles	17	24	1.3	-5.6	10.0	-7	-17.0
4	Arizona Cardinals		St. Louis Rams	22	24	10.4	-1.7	15.2	-2	-17.2
11	Minnesota Vikings		Green Bay Packers	13	30	3.8	5.6	1.2	-17	-18.2
2	Chicago Bears		Arizona Cardinals	23	48	0.7	10.4	-6.7	-25	-18.3
3	Chicago Bears	@	Seattle Seahawks	0	26	0.7	5.2	-7.4	-26	-18.6
10	Cincinnati Bengals		Houston Texans	6	10	10.7	-1.2	14.8	-4	-18.8
11	San Diego Chargers		Kansas City Chiefs	3	33	-4.3	9.7	-11.1	-30	-18.9
3	San Francisco 49ers	@	Arizona Cardinals	7	47	-7.6	10.4	-21.0	-40	-19.0
7	Houston Texans	@	Miami Dolphins	26	44	-1.2	-5.7	1.5	-18	-19.5
6	New York Giants	@	Philadelphia Eagles	7	27	-1.8	-5.6	0.8	-20	-20.8
4	Buffalo Bills		New York Giants	10	24	2.3	-1.8	7.1	-14	-21.1
3	Miami Dolphins		Buffalo Bills	14	41	-5.7	2.3	-5.0	-27	-22.0
8	Detroit Lions	N	Kansas City Chiefs	10	45	-2.5	9.7	-12.2	-35	-22.8
10	St. Louis Rams		Chicago Bears	13	37	-1.7	0.7	0.5	-24	-24.5
12	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Detroit Lions	14	45	-5.6	-2.5	-6.2	-31	-24.8
4	Houston Texans	@	Atlanta Falcons	21	48	-1.2	-2.1	-2.0	-27	-25.0
10	New Orleans Saints	@	Washington Redskins	14	47	-8.4	-3.8	-7.7	-33	-25.3
1	Minnesota Vikings	@	San Francisco 49ers	3	20	3.8	-7.6	8.3	-17	-25.3
6	Tennessee Titans		Miami Dolphins	10	38	-7.7	-5.7	0.9	-28	-28.9
11	Philadelphia Eagles		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17	45	-5.6	-5.9	3.3	-28	-31.3
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Tennessee Titans	14	42	-5.9	-7.7	4.9	-28	-32.9

Finally, we can use these ratings to see which teams have been the most and least consistent this year, by measuring the standard deviation of each team’s “Diff” ratings. As it turns out, the Eagles have been the most inconsistent team this year, followed by the Bucs and Dolphins. That’s probably not too surprising to most observers, but it’s always nice to be able to quantify things:

Rk	Team	StDev
1	Philadelphia Eagles	17.1
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15.7
3	Miami Dolphins	15.0
4	Tennessee Titans	14.7
5	New Orleans Saints	13.8
6	Kansas City Chiefs	13.5
7	Houston Texans	13.0
8	Arizona Cardinals	12.9
9	Chicago Bears	12.9
10	Detroit Lions	12.4
11	San Francisco 49ers	12.2
12	St. Louis Rams	12.2
13	Minnesota Vikings	12.0
14	New York Giants	11.5
15	Buffalo Bills	11.4
16	Washington Redskins	11.2
17	Atlanta Falcons	10.7
18	Green Bay Packers	10.2
19	New York Jets	10.1
20	Cincinnati Bengals	9.9
21	Denver Broncos	9.5
22	Indianapolis Colts	9.1
23	Dallas Cowboys	8.8
24	San Diego Chargers	8.6
25	Seattle Seahawks	8.5
26	Oakland Raiders	8.0
27	Carolina Panthers	8.0
28	Jacksonville Jaguars	7.8
29	Pittsburgh Steelers	7.6
30	Baltimore Ravens	7.6
31	New England Patriots	7.5
32	Cleveland Browns	7.5

The Patriots have been the second-most consistent team this year, which isn’t too surprising. But what might be surprising: the Browns have actually been more consistent!

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