Todd Gurley and Rushing TDs on Bad Offenses

by Chase Stuart on August 14, 2016

Here’s a good article by Matt Harmon presenting the contrarian case against Todd Gurley as a fantasy player. One of Matt’s arguments against Gurley’s fantasy value is that he’s on a bad offense, and his numbers last year were only strong because he scored such a high percentage of St. Louis offensive touchdowns.

That math checks out: Gurley ran for 10 TDs (with no receiving touchdowns), while the Rams scored 27 total offensive touchdowns. That means that Gurley rushing touchdowns made up 37% of all Rams offensive touchdowns, which was the highest rate in the NFL last year, and the highest rate in the NFL in three years. The only other players in shouting range of that number were Adrian Peterson (11/32, or 34% of all Vikings offensive touchdowns) and Devonta Freeman (11/34, of 32% of Falcons touchdowns). ^[1]Note that if we included receiving touchdowns, Freeman would vault Gurley, as he accounted for 41% of all Atlanta offensive touchdowns.

Another rookie from the SEC holds the modern record in this category. In 1981, South Carolina’s George Rogers was drafted by the Saints, and he led the NFL in rushing yards as a rookie. He also rushed for 13 touchdowns, despite the Saints finishing last in the league in scoring. Rogers rushed for 13 of the team’s 24 offensive touchdowns, or 54%. The table below shows the top 100 seasons by this metric since 1960:

Rk	Player	Tm	Year	Rush TD	Tm Off TD	Perc
1	George Rogers	NOR	1981	13	24	54.2%
2	Terry Allen	WAS	1996	21	39	53.8%
3	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1995	25	47	53.2%
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	2006	28	56	50%
4	Shaun Alexander	SEA	2005	27	54	50%
4	O.J. Simpson	BUF	1973	12	24	50%
7	Larry Johnson	KAN	2006	17	35	48.6%
8	Walter Payton	CHI	1977	14	29	48.3%
9	Priest Holmes	KAN	2003	27	56	48.2%
10	Shaun Alexander	SEA	2001	14	30	46.7%
10	Curtis Martin	NWE	1995	14	30	46.7%
10	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1994	21	45	46.7%
13	Larry Johnson	KAN	2005	20	43	46.5%
14	Earl Campbell	HOU	1979	19	41	46.3%
15	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1996	12	26	46.2%
16	Errict Rhett	TAM	1995	11	24	45.8%
17	Barry Sanders	DET	1991	16	35	45.7%
18	Joe Morris	NYG	1985	21	46	45.7%
19	Lamar Smith	MIA	2000	14	31	45.2%
20	Walter Payton	CHI	1976	13	29	44.8%
21	Shaun Alexander	SEA	2002	16	36	44.4%
22	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	2009	15	34	44.1%
22	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	MIA	1997	15	34	44.1%
24	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1990	11	25	44%
25	Eddie George	TEN	2000	14	32	43.8%
25	Travis Prentice	CLE	2000	7	16	43.8%
25	Eric Dickerson	RAM	1984	14	32	43.8%
28	Michael Turner	ATL	2008	17	39	43.6%
29	Corey Dillon	CIN	2001	10	23	43.5%
30	Tiki Barber	NYG	2004	13	30	43.3%
30	Gerald Riggs	ATL	1984	13	30	43.3%
32	Thomas Jones	NYJ	2009	14	33	42.4%
32	Derrick Fenner	SEA	1990	14	33	42.4%
32	Walter Payton	CHI	1979	14	33	42.4%
35	Peyton Hillis	CLE	2010	11	26	42.3%
35	Walter Payton	CHI	1978	11	26	42.3%
37	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1992	18	43	41.9%
37	Eric Dickerson	RAM	1983	18	43	41.9%
39	Travis Henry	BUF	2003	10	24	41.7%
40	Jamal Lewis	BAL	2003	14	34	41.2%
40	Rodney Hampton	NYG	1992	14	34	41.2%
40	Barry Sanders	DET	1989	14	34	41.2%
40	Ottis Anderson	NYG	1989	14	34	41.2%
44	Thomas Jones	CHI	2005	9	22	40.9%
45	Terdell Middleton	GNB	1978	11	27	40.7%
45	Tom Sullivan	PHI	1974	11	27	40.7%
47	John Riggins	WAS	1983	24	59	40.7%
48	Domanick Williams	HOU	2004	13	32	40.6%
49	LenDale White	TEN	2008	15	37	40.5%
50	LeSean McCoy	PHI	2011	17	42	40.5%
50	Jim Brown	CLE	1965	17	42	40.5%
52	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	2011	12	30	40%
52	Adrian Peterson	MIN	2010	12	30	40%
52	Chris Johnson	TEN	2009	14	35	40%
52	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	2008	18	45	40%
52	Shaun Alexander	SEA	2004	16	40	40%
52	Robb Riddick	BUF	1988	12	30	40%
52	George Rogers	WAS	1986	18	45	40%
59	Priest Holmes	KAN	2002	21	53	39.6%
60	Earl Campbell	HOU	1980	13	33	39.4%
61	Trent Richardson	CLE	2012	11	28	39.3%
61	Barry Foster	PIT	1992	11	28	39.3%
63	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	2002	14	36	38.9%
63	Robert Holmes	SDG	1973	7	18	38.9%
63	Jim Nance	BOS	1970	7	18	38.9%
66	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1991	12	31	38.7%
66	Eric Dickerson	RAM	1985	12	31	38.7%
68	Chris Warren	SEA	1995	15	39	38.5%
69	Billy Sims	DET	1980	13	34	38.2%
70	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	2011	8	21	38.1%
70	Ricky Williams	MIA	2002	16	42	38.1%
70	Greg Pruitt	CLE	1975	8	21	38.1%
73	Jim Taylor	GNB	1962	19	50	38%
74	Brad Baxter	NYJ	1991	11	29	37.9%
74	Marcus Allen	RAI	1982	11	29	37.9%
76	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	2008	12	32	37.5%
76	Mario Bates	ARI	1999	9	24	37.5%
76	Robert Delpino	RAM	1991	9	24	37.5%
76	Christian Okoye	KAN	1989	12	32	37.5%
76	Earl Campbell	HOU	1983	12	32	37.5%
76	Wendell Tyler	RAM	1982	9	24	37.5%
76	Eddie Lee Ivery	GNB	1982	9	24	37.5%
76	Wendell Tyler	RAM	1981	12	32	37.5%
76	Jim Kiick	MIA	1969	9	24	37.5%
85	Ricky Watters	PHI	1996	13	35	37.1%
85	Earl Campbell	HOU	1978	13	35	37.1%
85	Chuck Foreman	MIN	1976	13	35	37.1%
85	Jim Brown	CLE	1962	13	35	37.1%
85	Cookie Gilchrist	BUF	1962	13	35	37.1%
90	Todd Gurley	STL	2015	10	27	37%
90	Gerald Riggs	ATL	1985	10	27	37%
92	Steven Jackson	STL	2008	7	19	36.8%
92	Thomas Jones	CHI	2004	7	19	36.8%
92	Corey Dillon	CIN	2000	7	19	36.8%
92	Eric Dickerson	IND	1988	14	38	36.8%
92	Pete Johnson	CIN	1983	14	38	36.8%
92	Andra Franklin	MIA	1982	7	19	36.8%
92	John David Crow	STL	1962	14	38	36.8%
99	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	2005	18	49	36.7%
100	Ricky Watters	PHI	1995	11	30	36.7%
100	Marshall Faulk	IND	1994	11	30	36.7%
100	Bill Brown	MIN	1968	11	30	36.7%

A quick note: from a historical perspective, note that Emmitt Smith has *six* seasons in the top 66; no other player has more than four seasons in the top 100. Shaun Alexander, Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, and Walter Payton. That’s pretty interesting, and I’ll let you guys offer up your own historical thoughts in the comments.

As for Gurley? Simple math tells us that he can only score a lot of touchdowns if he continues to get an enormous share of the Rams pie or if the Rams pies increases. There are likely regression-to-the-mean aspects of both: yes, Gurley probably won’t continue to account for close to 40% of his team’s offensive touchdowns, but Los Angeles should improve, too. After all, the Rams offense scored only 27 touchdowns last year, 4th-fewest in the NFL (the 49ers had 23, the Cowboys had 24, and the Browns had 25). Ten rushing touchdowns is hardly an enormous number that requires you to build in a projected decrease.

Perhaps the bigger concern would be the boom-or-bust style of Gurley’s rookie year: he was consistently failing to pick up 4, 5, and 6 yard chunks relative to the average back. Along those same lines, Gurley ranked 9th in DVOA but just 36th in success rate. When it comes to young backs, usage rate is perhaps the most important thing to focus on, though that is not exactly infallible, either. I guess my takeaway with Gurley is that while his upside still seems incredibly high after his rookie season, his inconsistency and the bad offense he plays on still leaves a bit more downside than you might otherwise think. In other words, Gurley’s a pretty high variance running back in 2016 for a player who is projected to lead the NFL in rushing attempts.

References[+]

References
↑1	Note that if we included receiving touchdowns, Freeman would vault Gurley, as he accounted for 41% of all Atlanta offensive touchdowns.

Tagged as: Todd Gurley

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