Total Adjusted Yards Per Play Postseason Game Value

by Bryan Frye on August 31, 2021

Before the 2021 season starts, I figured I would try to add a little more to the Total Adjusted Yardage information I have been posting. Today, I want to discuss the same stats as before, as well as a few additions, for every postseason game in which a quarterback had at least five action plays. Not all information is complete, as sacks are unavailable prior to 1948. However, I’m working with what I have and not looking back. ^[1]If you want to look at all the raw data, including quarterbacks with just one plays, you can check out this Google sheet. Because this is the postseason, it is inherently worth more with regard to both earning a championship and establishing one’s legacy. Therefore, I am going to include championship leverage in the discussion. I don’t have much to say, so let’s get to the numbers.

The Table

The table below contains every qualifying quarterback from every playoff game between 1936 and 2020. It is initially sorted by date, but you can change the order. Read it thus: In the 1936 season, Arnie Herber played a December 12 game against Boston (link to game). The championship leverage for that game is 35. When retroactively applying modern Super Bowl leverage to title games and working backward from there, the game is worth 205 times that of a regular season game. Herber produced 124 Total Adjusted Yards on 15 plays at 8.27 TAY/P. That figure was 5.60 better than league average, giving him a VAL of 84. His positive VAL is still 84, but all negative VAL is zeroed. Herber’s positive leverage-adjusted VAL is 2917, and his positive retro-adjusted VAL is 17210. His TAYP+ for the game is 143.3.

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Year	Player	Date	Opp	LEV	Ret	TAY	PLY	TAY/P	VAL/P	VAL	PV	pLev	pRet	TAYP+
1936	Arnie Herber	12/13/1936	BOS	35	205	124	15	8.27	5.60	84	84	2917	17210	143.3
1936	Pug Renter	12/13/1936	GNB	35	205	31	19	1.63	-1.03	-20	0	0	0	92.0
1936	Bob Monnett	12/13/1936	BOS	35	205	-5	19	-0.26	-2.93	-56	0	0	0	77.4
1936	Riley Smith	12/13/1936	GNB	35	205	-60	11	-5.45	-8.12	-89	0	0	0	37.3
1937	Sammy Baugh	12/12/1937	CHI	34	205	331	37	8.95	6.00	222	222	7631	45461	152.5
1937	Bernie Masterson	12/12/1937	WAS	34	205	71	20	3.55	0.60	12	12	415	2472	105.3
1937	Cliff Battles	12/12/1937	CHI	34	205	-2	22	-0.09	-3.04	-67	0	0	0	73.4
1937	Ray Buivid	12/12/1937	WAS	34	205	-59	15	-3.93	-6.88	-103	0	0	0	39.8
1938	Arnie Herber	12/11/1938	NYG	34	205	165	17	9.71	6.47	110	110	3778	22510	155.7
1938	Ed Danowski	12/11/1938	GNB	34	205	116	13	8.92	5.68	74	74	2539	15130	149.0
1938	Cecil Isbell	12/11/1938	NYG	34	205	65	16	4.06	0.82	13	13	452	2694	107.1
1938	Tuffy Leemans	12/11/1938	GNB	34	205	38	14	2.71	-0.53	-7	0	0	0	95.5
1939	Cecil Isbell	12/10/1939	NYG	34	205	84	15	5.60	2.53	38	38	1307	7787	120.7
1939	Eddie Miller	12/10/1939	GNB	34	205	4	9	0.44	-2.62	-24	0	0	0	78.6
1939	Len Barnum	12/10/1939	GNB	34	205	-36	8	-4.50	-7.57	-61	0	0	0	38.2
1939	Tuffy Leemans	12/10/1939	GNB	34	205	-41	16	-2.56	-5.63	-90	0	0	0	54.1
1939	Arnie Herber	12/10/1939	NYG	34	205	-78	11	-7.09	-10.16	-112	0	0	0	17.1
1939	Ed Danowski	12/10/1939	GNB	34	205	-88	12	-7.33	-10.40	-125	0	0	0	15.1
1940	Sammy Baugh	12/8/1940	CHI	34	205	-13	17	-0.76	-3.83	-65	0	0	0	72.1
1940	Roy Zimmerman	12/8/1940	CHI	34	205	-26	13	-2.00	-5.07	-66	0	0	0	63.1
1940	Frank Filchock	12/8/1940	CHI	34	205	-143	25	-5.72	-8.79	-220	0	0	0	36.0
1941	Sid Luckman	12/14/1941	GNB	20	102	44	10	4.40	1.51	15	15	296	1542	110.4
1941	Cecil Isbell	12/14/1941	CHI	20	102	94	30	3.13	0.24	7	7	141	735	101.7
1941	Hal Van Every	12/14/1941	CHI	20	102	36	12	3.00	0.11	1	1	25	130	100.7
1941	Tony Canadeo	12/14/1941	CHI	20	102	2	7	0.29	-2.61	-18	0	0	0	81.9
1941	Sid Luckman	12/21/1941	NYG	39	205	148	13	11.38	8.49	110	110	4336	22605	158.9
1941	Bob Snyder	12/21/1941	NYG	39	205	11	7	1.57	-1.32	-9	0	0	0	90.8
1941	Hank Soar	12/21/1941	CHI	39	205	1	10	0.10	-2.79	-28	0	0	0	80.6
1941	Tuffy Leemans	12/21/1941	CHI	39	205	10	18	0.56	-2.34	-42	0	0	0	83.8
1942	Charlie O'Rourke	12/13/1942	WAS	34	205	128	7	18.29	15.30	107	107	3682	21938	188.1

Showing 1 to 30 of 1,303 entries

First off, there is no mathematical rationale for the retro column to exist. The leverage is the leverage, based strictly on straightforward math. However, I decided to use the retro figure to award older quarterbacks as if they were being judged with today’s numbers. So Bart Starr has his Super Bowl I performance multiplied by 205 instead of 125, for those who believe a ring is a ring. I don’t believe that, but I’m throwing a bone to the dogs who do.

Peyton Manning holds the two highest VAL marks for his drubbings of the Broncos in consecutive postseasons. He would later win a Super Bowl in Denver with a VAL of -152.

By positive leverage-adjusted VAL, we see a ranking that fairly closely matches popular perception of the top Super Bowl performances in history. Tom Brady has the highest score in a losing effort, while Jake Delhomme ranks second on that dubious list in a loss to Brady’s team 14 years prior.

Sorting by retro leverage-adjusted VAL sees Sid Luckman take the crown in his revenge performance against Washington. A rookie Sammy Baugh and a vacationing George Blanda also look great by this method.

I’ll leave the rest to you.

References[+]

References
↑1	If you want to look at all the raw data, including quarterbacks with just one plays, you can check out this Google sheet.

Tagged as: Bryan Frye, Guest Posts, total adjusted yards

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