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It has been a while since I published anything specifically relating to my niche homebrewed metric, Total Adjusted Yards per Play (TAY/P). It has been longer, still, since Chase has posted his latest entry into the corpus of his legendary QBGOAT series. I figured I would kill one bird and dizzy another with one stone. This post is specifically about TAY/P and its derivatives. It is not a treatise on the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Instead, it is a look at how several quarterbacks have fared in a few different variations of a single measurement since 1932. If you want to view it as a GOAT list, you are free to do so, though I would not encourage it. I believe statistics should be used to support your argument rather than serve as the entirety of your argument.

I am not under the delusion that this is the premier metric to use when evaluating quarterbacks. I prefer a holistic approach that includes everything from simple box score stats to convoluted algorithms and subjective grades. I consider EPA/P, DVOA, and Total QBR to be superior measurements. [1]CPOE is a useful stat when trying to get a better idea, from the numbers, who was more or less accurate than their actual completion rate may have indicated. ANY/A is good but only looks at … Continue reading The only problem is that they don’t cover a large enough portion of NFL history to make comparisons. Thus, I continue to use TAY/P because it uses simple box score numbers to create a metric that can compare quarterbacks dating back as far as we have box scores. [2]With some caveats. We have full stats dating back to 1967. Prior to that, we don’t have full sack and sack yardage information for the AFL. We have data for sack yardage lost in the NFL dating … Continue reading

Methodology

Total Adjusted Yards are defined as: passing yards + rushing yards – sack yards + touchdowns*20 – interceptions*45 – fumbles*25
Plays are defined as: passing attempts + rushing attempts + sacks [3]You can view the raw numbers that went into the final values on this Google sheet. Keep in mind, please, that this only covers the regular season. I plan to address the playoffs later on.

Total Adjusted Yards per Play Index Score

Simple as can be. With that in mind, here are the easy steps to find TAY/P+:

  1. I find the TAY/P for every quarterback from 1932-2020.
  2. I find the three-year moving average of leaguewide TAY/P (2018 includes 2017 and 2019; 2020 only include 2019 because 2021 hasn’t happened yet).
  3. I calculate a weighted standard deviation of TAY/P for each three-year period, with the target year in the middle. The weighted calculation is an attempt to dampen the effects of players like Keenum, Blough, and Stick from the 2020 season. [4]Pro Football Reference approaches this differently for their passing index scores. They simply take the standard deviation of all passers who meet a minimum threshold of passes.
  4. I find each player’s z-score for each season. I multiply the z-score by 15 and add that to 100 to find TAY/P+.

Here’s an example: in 2007, Tom Brady had 578 passes for 4806 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He took 21 sacks for 128 yards. He rushed 37 times for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he had 6 fumbles. That comes to 4961 Total Adjusted Yards on 636 plays, good for 8.34 TAY/P.

The league average TAY/P from 2006-2008 was 4.99, and the weighted standard deviation was 1.44. Brady was 3.35 above average, giving him a z-score of 2.33. Multiply by 15 and add to 100, and his TAYP+ for 2007 is 135.0.

Total Adjusted Yards Above Average

Finding Total Adjusted Yards above or below average (VAL) is simple:

  1. Subtract a player’s TAY/P from the three-year moving average found in step 2 above. This will be known as VAL/P.
  2. Multiply VAL/P by the player’s total plays. This will be VAL. [5]I use the term VAL, short for value, because I can’t really think of a better term that is easy to display quickly in a table. I don’t really love that this implies that it is the same as … Continue reading

For example: From above, we know Brady’s TAY/P in 2007 was 8.34, while the three-year moving average of the league was 4.99, giving him a VAL/P of 3.35. When we multiply that by his 636 plays, we get a VAL of 2131.

Adjusting for Inflation

It means something different to shoulder a large load today than it did in the 1970s or the 1950s. Because of that, I try to put quarterbacks on a more even playing field in order to recognize high volume players of yesteryear. It’s not perfect, but it will have to do. It takes a few easy steps:

  1. Having found how many action plays each quarterback had, and knowing the number of team games there are each year, we can find a three-year moving average of quarterback plays per team game. Call this A.
  2. With the same information, we can find the average number of quarterback plays per game in total. Call this the inflation constant, which is 35.3.
  3. To find each season’s usage rate multiplier, divide the inflation constant by A.
  4. To soften the blow a little and avoid giving too much credit for plays that never happened, add the result from step 2 to 1, and then divide by 2. Call this the soft multiplier.
  5. Multiply the soft multiplier by a quarterback’s VAL in a given season to find his soft VAL.
  6. Slap 16 in the numerator and put the number of scheduled games in the denominator in order to prorate for the league schedule getting longer. [6]Yes, this will have to change again after the 2021 season, making all of the results from this post old hat. Call this prorate.
  7. Multiply soft VAL by prorate to find inflation adjusted VAL (presented in the table as AdjVAL).

Example time: Brady 2007 had a VAL of 2131. Figure A for 2007 was 37.3. The inflation constant divided by that is 0.946 (35.3/37.3). Averaged with 1, we get 0.973. Multiplying that by 2131 gives us a soft VAL of 2074. We don’t have to prorate, because he played in the 16-game era, so his final AdjVAL is 2074.

The Table

The table below contains every qualifying quarterback since 1932, sorted by inflation-adjusted VAL. Read it thus: in 1943, Sid Luckman of the Chicago Bears played in 10 games and was involved in 224 plays. When adjusted for schedule and usage, that’s roughly 429 plays. He produced 2194 Total Adjusted Yards at a rate of 9.79 per play. His TAY/P was 6.79 above league average, and his TAYP+ was 140. Luckman produced 1521 Total Adjusted Yards above average, which jumps to 2912 when prorated and adjusted for inflation.

PlayerYearTmGPlyAdjPlyTAYTAY/PVAL/PTAYP+VALAdjVAL
Sid Luckman1943CHI1022442921949.796.7914015212912
Peyton Manning2004IND1653552348999.164.3214223122258
Dan Marino1984MIA1660559150028.273.8113923052250
Tom Brady2007NWE1663661953068.343.3513521312074
Bert Jones1976BAL1441050330497.443.8413015761933
Aaron Rodgers2011GNB1559856752468.773.3413519991896
Sammy Baugh1945WAS820136515137.535.1913010441895
Otto Graham1947CLE1428838128509.904.9113014141869
Otto Graham1953CLE1230142923557.824.2713012861831
Otto Graham1949CLE1231246528829.243.9112312211818
Dan Fouts1982SDG935161726127.442.9412910311812
Cecil Isbell1942GNB1130450919746.493.5112010671788
Drew Brees2011NOR1670266656898.102.6712818771780
John Brodie1970SFO1439548329487.463.5513214011713
Steve Young1994SFO1655052843897.983.1813517501679
Peyton Manning2013DEN1670966257218.072.5212917871670
Peyton Manning2006IND1659457745927.732.8913017161667
Daunte Culpepper2004MIN1668266649857.312.4712416871648
Sammy Baugh1947WAS1237956423226.132.8411910781604
Matt Ryan2016ATL1660656751718.532.8113417031592
Johnny Unitas1959BAL1239658727596.972.7011910701587
Randall Cunningham1998MIN1547745739048.183.4513516481580
Patrick Mahomes2018KC1666662554728.222.5212816791576
Kurt Warner1999STL1655152742747.762.9813016421570
Steve Young1992SFO1650750238907.673.1313115861569
George Blanda1961HOU1436942829978.123.6413113431560
Ken Anderson1975CIN1345855829756.502.7812112711547
Milt Plum1960CLE1226739621838.183.8712710321530
Johnny Lujack1949CHI1232046421516.723.2912010531527
Y.A. Tittle1963NYG1340948430447.443.1312512821516
Tommy Thompson1948PHI1225838119627.603.9812410271516
Tom Brady2011NWE1668665153217.762.3312515961514
Sonny Jurgensen1967WAS1454264334516.372.3211812561490
Ken Anderson1981CIN1655054739597.202.7012714871478
Dan Fouts1981SDG1665064643946.762.2612214721464
Jeff Garcia2000SFO1665762746127.022.3012515131444
Joe Montana1984SFO1649348136607.422.9713014621428
Aaron Rodgers2020GNB1658454449618.492.6213015311426
Dutch Clark1934DET1217332811716.774.321327471416
Steve Young1998SFO1563560944657.032.3012314611401
Joe Theismann1983WAS1653052037867.142.6712514141388
Len Dawson1966KAN1430835726398.573.8913111991388
Norm Van Brocklin1953RAM1229441920186.863.311239731387
Frank Filchock1939WAS1119231614327.464.391368431387
Donovan McNabb2004PHI1554252940237.422.5912514021369
Sid Luckman1945CHI1025345913395.292.961177491359
Cecil Isbell1941GNB1127846016215.832.941208161352
Steve Young1993SFO1656255039707.062.4512613771347
Ken Anderson1974CIN1340750125646.302.6612110821333
Mark Rypien1991WAS1644344233717.612.9912913241321
Dan Marino1986MIA1665263342696.552.0812013551315
Aaron Rodgers2014GNB1659155047518.042.3812914081311
Philip Rivers2009SDG1653751941627.752.5212413551310
Drew Brees2009NOR1555653842617.662.4412313551310
Ken Stabler1976OAK1231738922026.953.3512610631304
Joe Montana1989SFO1346846135457.572.8213013221303
John Brodie1965SFO1342049328716.842.6412011101302
Daryle Lamonica1968OAK1346254128646.202.4011711081296
Charlie Conerly1948NYG1233950021036.202.581168741290
Drew Brees2008NOR1667064947417.081.9811913281287
Y.A. Tittle1962NYG1439249428907.372.6012210211286
Brett Favre1995GNB1664261344126.872.0812313351275
Tom Brady2010NWE1654852442407.742.4312313331275
Fran Tarkenton1975MIN1446857027875.962.2311710461273
Charlie Conerly1959NYG1020931017498.374.101298581272
Johnny Unitas1964BAL1437944927327.212.8312210741272
Patrick Mahomes2020KAN1567262653067.902.0212313591266
Joe Namath1968NYJ1440046825966.492.6911910751258
Peyton Manning2000IND1662859942786.812.1012313161255
Fran Tarkenton1976MIN1346456926855.792.1911710181249
Ken Stabler1974OAK1434041922516.622.9812310131248
Roger Staubach1971DAL1327534220607.493.631319991242
Jim Hart1976STL1441350724966.042.4511910121242
Brian Sipe1980CLE1659760138856.512.0612212291237
Otto Graham1946CLE1420428118449.044.371268911228
Ken Anderson1982CIN936063323166.431.931196951221
Tom Flores1966OAK1431136025088.063.3912710541220
Sonny Jurgensen1961PHI1443655229496.762.201179611216
Boomer Esiason1988CIN1646145034007.382.7012512451216
Brett Favre2009MIN1657455542577.422.1912112571215
Sid Luckman1941CHI1113722711298.245.351377331213
Daryle Lamonica1969OAK1445053227886.202.2811510251212
Peyton Manning2012DEN1662758847237.532.0612212901211
Peyton Manning2005IND1650349136967.352.4512512341205
Len Dawson1962DTX1434840926117.502.9212210161194
Roger Staubach1979DAL1653455133636.302.1612211561193
Joe Namath1967NYJ1452360929705.681.9611310241192
John Hadl1967SDG1447355027815.882.1611410211188
Tom Brady2012NWE1668764550277.321.8412012661188
Steve Young1991SFO1135835728387.933.3113211831181
Otto Graham1948CLE1435646328047.882.541159051177
Sammy Baugh1942WAS1124541114305.842.851166991172
Philip Rivers2008SDG1653451839277.352.2612112071170
Fran Tarkenton1974MIN1338947923666.082.441199501170
Joe Montana1983SFO1660959839156.431.9511911901168
Norm Van Brocklin1954RAM1226637817876.723.081228191164
Drew Brees2006NOR1661459741706.791.9512011971163
Daunte Culpepper2000MIN1659756940316.752.0412312151159
Trent Green2002KAN1652750737047.032.2812611991154
Carson Palmer2015ARI1658754746197.872.1012612341150
Kurt Warner2001STL1661258441376.761.9712212031149
Aaron Rodgers2009GNB1664962845797.061.8311711871147
Neil Lomax1984STL1664462940466.281.8311911751147
Rich Gannon2002OAK1670467745366.441.6911911901145
Johnny Unitas1958BAL1029644520266.842.571197601143
Peyton Manning2003IND1661259341666.811.9112011711134
Fran Tarkenton1967NYG1445053427766.172.121169531131
Tom Brady2016NE1247544439268.272.5413112081129
Peyton Manning2009IND1660058043037.171.9411911671128
Jim Everett1989RAM1657256438626.752.0012111451128
Bob Waterfield1951RAM1118526613987.564.231327821125
Bart Starr1966GNB1429835021887.343.201249551123
Johnny Unitas1967BAL1448357328996.001.951159431119
Bert Jones1975BAL1442952225145.862.141169181117
Bobby Layne19582TM1233450221716.502.221167421116
Patrick Mahomes2019KAN1454450743828.062.2012411961115
Y.A. Tittle1948BCL1434144426747.842.511158551112
Drew Brees2018NOR1553750442437.902.2112511841112
Scott Mitchell1995DET1665062142776.581.7912011621110
Frankie Albert1948SFO1433343326297.892.561168521109
John Brodie1961SFO1431139422927.372.811228741106
Tony Romo2009DAL1661959943777.071.8411811421104
Philip Rivers2010SDG1660858243757.201.8911811491099
Vinny Testaverde1998NYJ1446444533307.182.4512511351088
Deshaun Watson2020HOU1668363651797.581.7111911671087
Warren Moon1990HOU1567566843176.401.6211710961085
Roman Gabriel1967RAM1443852026866.132.081169121082
Roger Staubach1978DAL1548751828285.812.0811910131077
Norm Van Brocklin1950RAM1224835515806.373.021217491074
Sammy Baugh1949WAS1226838816556.182.751177361066
Bert Jones1977BAL1444755224465.471.921168601061
Aaron Rodgers2010GNB1557054541307.251.9411811061058
Daryle Lamonica1967OAK1448456327095.601.881129081057
Philip Rivers2013SDG1660256344707.431.8812211301056
Tobin Rote1956GNB1239259922045.621.761156911056
Don Meredith1966DAL1341949326266.272.131168921049
Norm Van Brocklin1951RAM1220128913976.953.621287281047
Bob Waterfield1945RAM1018934310175.383.051185761045
Nick Foles2013PHI1340237633498.332.7813311191045
Matt Schaub2009HOU1665663445086.871.6511610791043
Frank Ryan1966CLE1444652527326.131.991158861042
Ron Jaworski1980PHI1650550832816.502.0512110351041
Earl Morrall1968BAL1435242123476.672.471218681038
Dak Prescott2019DAL1667162650437.521.6611811131037
Sammy Baugh1943WAS1025849413165.102.101125411036
Roger Staubach1976DAL1444154124295.511.911158441036
Bill Nelsen1968CLE1431737921946.922.721238621031
Sid Luckman1947CHI1233349617855.362.081146921030
Trent Green2003KAN1656955138476.761.8711910621028
Tom Brady2009NWE1661059042516.971.7411710631027
Bernie Kosar1987CLE1242644329316.882.321229871026
Roman Gabriel1973PHI1450363027005.371.631138191026
Norm Van Brocklin1959PHI1235152121886.231.971146911025
Drew Brees2013NOR1672267550957.061.5111810891018
Joe Namath1972NYJ1334142920836.112.371208071017
Chad Pennington2002NYJ1545043331947.102.3412710551015
Roman Gabriel1969RAM1444854326835.991.861168351012
Roger Staubach1977DAL1444254523875.401.851158191010
John Elway1987DEN1249651632346.521.961189711009
Peyton Manning2007IND1655654138116.851.8611910351008
Lamar Jackson2019RAV1560055945927.651.8012010781005
Peyton Manning1999IND1658255738276.581.8011810461001
Jim Kelly1991BUF1552552434276.531.911181001998
Brett Favre2004GNB1656855537666.631.791181019995
Erik Kramer1995CHI1657254637826.611.821201041994
Carson Palmer2005CIN1656254937676.701.811181016992
Y.A. Tittle1953SFO1127338916666.102.55118696992
Johnny Unitas1957BAL1234352420696.031.89115647988
Greg Landry1971DET1436645522056.022.17119794986
Spec Sanders1947NYY1440253127496.841.85111744984
Donovan McNabb2006PHI1036935927947.572.731281007979
Joe Montana1987SFO1345547330176.632.07119941978
Kurt Warner2000STL1138536728417.382.661291025978
Bobby Thomason1953PHI1231344617965.742.18115684974
Dutch Clark1936DET1219435810455.392.71121526970
Steve Young1997SFO1544142430786.982.281241007969
Steve DeBerg1990KAN1648748233036.782.01121979969
Len Dawson1968KAN1426230718226.953.15122826966
Alex Smith2017KC1560056244557.431.711191027962
Trent Green2004KAN1661359939496.441.61116985962
Joe Montana1982SFO939669623305.881.38114547961
Ryan Tannehill2020TEN1654851042477.751.881211028958
Y.A. Tittle1954SFO1232345918435.712.07115668949
Dan Fouts1980SDG1664464838055.911.46115940946
Tom Brady2005NWE1658356938216.551.66117967944
Tommy Thompson1949PHI1222933214366.272.84118651943
Matt Ryan2018ATL1669365149487.141.441161001940
Drew Brees2012NOR1671166748926.881.41115999938
Elvis Grbac2000KAN1560657838416.341.62118983938
Aaron Rodgers2012GNB1665761645967.001.52116999937
Johnny Unitas1963BAL1449959029425.901.59113792937
Ben Roethlisberger2014PIT1667462748177.151.491181005935
Norm Van Brocklin1960PHI1229543719026.452.14115631935
Greg Landry1972DET1437447121415.721.98117742934
Otto Graham1952CLE1240658020044.941.61111653933
Billy Wade1961CHI1329537320827.062.50120737933
Rich Gannon2000OAK1659056337556.361.65118972927
Steve Beuerlein1999CAR1664862040656.271.50115969927
Sammy Baugh1948WAS1231947117845.591.97112628927
Sammy Baugh1940WAS1119732011735.952.89121568924
Steve McNair2003TEN1445744231906.982.09121953923
Tony Romo2007DAL1657556038196.641.65117949923
Philip Rivers2018LAC1655852441617.461.76120983923
Jim Hart1974STL1441451022535.441.80114746918
Matt Hasselbeck2005SEA1650949734246.731.83118933910
Roger Staubach1973DAL1437546921295.681.94115727910
Boomer Esiason1986CIN1653952333466.211.74117937910
John Hadl1973RAM1428936218076.252.51119726909
Dan Marino1987MIA1246548329936.441.87118871906
Drew Brees2004SDG1547146032036.801.96119925904
Peyton Manning2008IND1658957139326.681.58115932903
John Hadl1966SDG1441347827116.561.89115780903
Fran Tarkenton1972MIN1443154323285.401.66114716901
Brian Griese2000DEN1038236427467.192.47127944901
Fran Tarkenton1970NYG1446857225695.491.57114736900
Johnny Unitas1965BAL1132838521426.532.34118767900
Dan Marino1992MIA1660259636446.051.51115908898
Fran Tarkenton1965MIN1441348524956.041.85114763896
Fran Tarkenton1969NYG1448258427265.661.53113738894
Babe Parilli1962BOS1028133020477.282.70120759892
Joe Montana1985SFO1557155534506.041.60117911885
Lynn Dickey1983GNB1654553533336.121.64116894878
Mark Brunell1997JAX1451649733346.461.77118911877
Chad Pennington2008MIA1653051436046.801.71116904877
Chris Chandler1998ATL1440839128426.972.24123912874
Jim Zorn1979SEA1657459332195.611.47115846874
Tobin Rote1963SDG1431036121977.092.42120750873
Matthew Stafford2011DET1672168448346.701.27113919872
Brett Favre1997GNB1659657437036.211.52116904870
Joe Montana1981SFO1653953632976.121.62116874869
Don Meredith1968DAL1336143222436.212.01117726868
Troy Aikman1995DAL1646744631476.741.95122909868
Peyton Manning2014DEN1663859445407.121.46118932867
Drew Brees2019NOR1139937232668.192.33126929866
Roger Staubach1975DAL1343953423445.341.62112711865
Fran Tarkenton1968NYG1442150424915.921.71114722864
Josh Allen2020BUF1670065250317.191.31115919856
Norm Snead1972NYG1434343219625.721.98117679855
Craig Morton1970DAL1224329716506.792.87126698854
Joe Montana1990SFO1558958336736.241.46115862853
Joe Namath1969NYJ1438545522305.791.88113722853
Drew Brees2016NOR1672367650496.981.26115911852
Jim Kelly1990BUF1438838427096.982.21123858849
Daryle Lamonica1970OAK1437946321785.751.83116694848
Matt Ryan2012ATL1667763546056.801.33114899843
Randall Cunningham1990PHI1663262538676.121.35114851842
Ed Brown1956CHI1220831813536.502.65122550841
Tom Brady2015NWE1669664949137.061.29116899838
Troy Aikman1993DAL1445044029276.501.89120851832
Dan Fouts1983SDG1036635924836.782.31122845830
Russell Wilson2015SEA1663158845287.181.41118889829
Tony Romo2011DAL1658055040186.931.50116869824
Doug Williams1981TAM1653753432426.041.54115828823
Marc Bulger2004STL1454553234766.381.54115840821
Brett Favre2007GNB1657956337346.451.46115844821
Bobby Layne1954DET1227639215815.732.09115577819
Eli Manning2011NYG1665261844046.751.32114864819
Michael Vick2010PHI1250648435396.991.69116854817
Sonny Jurgensen1970WAS1436845021095.731.81116668817
Tommy Kramer1986MIN1342641327456.441.97119841817
Dan Marino1991MIA1660360236055.981.36113818816
Y.A. Tittle1961NYG1331039220566.632.07116643813
Boomer Esiason1989CIN1653853033806.281.53116824812
Dak Prescott2016DAL1654150639617.321.60119865808
Craig Morton1969DAL1334842221006.031.91116665805
Rudy Bukich1965CHI1436542822156.071.87114684803
Ken Anderson1973CIN1437947420575.431.69113640801
Johnny Unitas1960BAL1241461423245.611.30109540800
Jake Plummer2004DEN1659858437116.211.37113819800
Boomer Esiason1985CIN1549648230286.101.66117823799
Frank Filchock1944WAS101803559605.332.25113405799
Kurt Warner2008ARI1664262240946.381.28112824799
Joe Ferguson1975BUF1436444320105.521.80114656798
Drew Brees2017NOR1658955242167.161.44116851797
John Elway1993DEN1663462037405.901.29114815797
Tom Brady2017NE1664160145097.031.32115847794
Mike Livingston1976KAN1440049120825.211.61112645791
Fran Tarkenton1973MIN1434643319255.561.82114631790
Kirk Cousins2016WAS1666362046387.001.27115844789
Robert Griffin2012WAS1554350938137.021.55117840788
Dan Marino1994MIA1665562839646.051.25114821787
Sid Luckman1946CHI1125441911954.701.88112477787
Philip Rivers2017LAC1661157343287.081.37115837785
Jake Plummer2005DEN1652451233676.431.53115802783
Jim Everett1988RAM1657956535066.061.38113800781
Tom Brady2020TAM1666161647167.131.26114834776
Jim Hardy1948RAM1221631913086.062.43115525775
Milt Plum1959CLE1228742617456.081.81113521773
Tony Romo2014DAL1549045636017.351.69121830772
David Garrard2007JAX1239538427657.002.01121793772
Bobby Layne1951DET1239356518454.691.37110537772
Mark Rypien1989WAS1451851132416.261.51116780769
Aaron Rodgers2016GNB1671266648966.881.15114821768
Tom Flores1963OAK1425930218687.212.54121659767
Archie Manning1978NOR1654658027575.051.32112722767
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Roman Gabriel1968RAM1442751118674.370.171017387
Daryle Lamonica1971OAK1426432810864.110.261026884
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Lynn Dickey1982GNB925645010984.29-0.2198-55-96
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Daniel Jones2020NYG1455852025954.65-1.2286-682-636
Jim Hardy1950CRD112673824501.69-1.6688-444-636
George Blanda1965HOU1444651615363.44-1.2489-551-638
Joe Theismann1985WAS113633539552.63-1.8281-659-640
Kyle Boller2004BAL1655253920113.64-1.1988-658-643
Gary Danielson1982DET82394207102.97-1.5385-366-643
Brett Hundley2017GNB1138135714893.91-1.8080-688-644
John McCormick1966DEN141972293651.85-2.8278-556-647
Jeff George1991IND1655755619253.46-1.1789-649-648
Josh McCown2014TAM1138836114983.86-1.7978-696-648
Eddie LeBaron1953WAS121702421460.86-2.6981-458-653
David Archer1985ATL1642541312172.86-1.5883-673-654
Sam Bradford2011STL1041139015423.75-1.6882-690-654
John Hadl1962SDG143003498112.70-1.8886-564-657
Donovan McNabb1999PHI122912787022.41-2.3776-688-658
Bill Troup1978BAL123463686671.93-1.8083-623-662
Cotton Davidson19622TM1434640610212.95-1.6388-565-663
Bobby Douglass1971CHI122943655982.03-1.8284-536-666
Dave Ryan1946DET112253712301.02-1.8089-406-670
Matthew Stafford2009DET1042140715063.58-1.6584-695-672
Tony Banks1996STL1447745615503.25-1.4784-704-672
Bart Starr1958GNB121822743311.82-2.4682-447-673
Mike Taliaferro1970BOS111912341840.96-2.9573-564-690
Steve Tensi1967DEN143884528492.19-1.5390-595-692
Jack Kemp1969BUF144024759882.46-1.4690-587-693
Mickey Slaughter1964DEN142092403741.79-2.8972-605-693
Sam Darnold2020NYJ1243640618164.17-1.7181-745-694
Mark Sanchez2009NYJ1542641215053.53-1.6984-722-698
Colt McCoy2011CLE1355652722824.10-1.3386-737-699
Josh Freeman2009TAM1034032910543.10-2.1380-723-699
Jake Plummer2002ARI1661258921823.57-1.1986-727-699
Carson Wentz2016PHI1668664131744.63-1.1087-752-703
Heath Shuler1997NOR102462374241.72-2.9769-731-704
Norm Snead1968PHI113203837532.35-1.8584-592-708
Parker Hall1942RAM101813031170.65-2.3487-423-709
Hugh McCullough1939PIT10160263590.37-2.7078-431-709
Bruce Gradkowski2006TAM1339438311762.98-1.8681-732-711
Mike Phipps1973CLE144035049322.31-1.4389-575-719
Joe Pisarcik1977NYG133003704811.60-1.9484-583-720
Tom Sherman1968BOS142703164091.51-2.2984-617-722
Milt Plum1965DET143514128542.43-1.7687-618-725
Geno Smith2013NYJ1655852123124.14-1.4084-784-732
Chuck Ortmann1951PIT121982851490.75-2.5880-510-733
Archie Manning19822TM71743063662.10-2.4076-418-734
Terry Nofsinger1966STL71972321910.97-3.1776-624-734
Sam Etcheverry1961STL142292904582.00-2.5680-586-742
Adrian Burk1951PHI122463543021.23-2.1084-517-743
Joe Ferguson1984BUF1239838910112.54-1.9280-763-745
Trent Dilfer1995TAM1648546315433.18-1.6182-781-746
Lamar McHan1954CRD122894115261.82-1.8287-526-747
Joe Flacco2017BAL1660156326354.38-1.3385-799-748
Jared Goff2016RAM72392235632.36-3.3759-805-752
Chris Weinke2001CAR1560357620923.47-1.3285-798-762
Joey Harrington2003DET1659357421113.56-1.3386-791-766
Ray Evans1948PIT92363483361.42-2.2087-519-767
Richard Todd1976NYJ132192691590.73-2.8778-628-770
Jake Delhomme2009CAR1136134910883.01-2.2179-799-772
Drew Bledsoe2003BUF1654452718633.42-1.4785-799-774
Eli Manning2013NYG1660856825434.18-1.3784-830-776
Jack Kemp1967BUF144435189812.21-1.5190-667-781
Browning Nagle1992NYJ1443843311972.73-1.8182-794-785
Derek Carr2014OAK1665260728434.36-1.3084-845-786
Dick Wood1966MIA142352734191.78-2.8977-680-791
Dean McAdams1942BKN111993341200.60-2.3886-474-794
Mike Taliaferro1968BOS7202236890.44-3.3677-679-794
Whizzer White1938PIT112253892701.20-2.0482-459-795
A.J. Feeley2004MIA1139338410852.76-2.0880-816-797
Vince Evans1981CHI1650249914542.90-1.6084-803-798
John Hadl1975GNB144084978582.10-1.6288-660-803
Joe Ferguson1982BUF92915118532.93-1.5784-457-804
Brock Osweiler2016HOU1556753023794.20-1.5382-866-810
Frank Tripucka1961DEN143484048622.48-2.0183-698-810
Joe Namath1976NYJ112483042300.93-2.6779-661-811
Lamar McHan1955CRD122633894811.83-2.1082-552-816
Ed Matesic1935PHI11114246-103-0.90-3.3277-379-818
Mark Malone1987PIT123884039822.53-2.0381-788-819
Craig Whelihan1998SDG103533388102.29-2.4475-860-824
Frankie Sinkwich1943DET102194192251.03-1.9888-433-828
Rudy Bukich1966CHI143534157562.14-2.0085-705-829
Ryan Fitzpatrick2008CIN1347045615363.27-1.8383-858-832
Harry Hopp1942DET10134225-97-0.72-3.7179-497-832
Jim Plunkett1972NWE144305419462.20-1.5487-663-835
Joe Flacco2013BAL1668964429294.25-1.3085-894-835
King Hill1959CRD112203263751.70-2.5682-563-836
Terry Bradshaw1970PIT132753363861.40-2.5177-691-845
Trent Dilfer2007SFO72562494091.60-3.3965-869-846
Irv Comp1946GNB11155256-75-0.48-3.3179-513-847
Akili Smith2000CIN123443287342.13-2.5871-888-847
Randy Johnson1966ATL143564197512.11-2.0385-722-850
Vinny Testaverde1988TAM1552751515913.02-1.6585-872-851
Stan Gelbaugh1992SEA103053025211.71-2.8472-865-856
George Herring1961DEN142262652841.26-3.2373-729-856
Hugh McCullough1940CRD1117328120.01-3.0678-529-860
Ryan Leaf2000SDG113813638922.34-2.3874-905-863
Boomer Esiason1992CIN123183155681.79-2.7673-877-868
Charlie Conerly1953NYG123274665461.67-1.8887-616-877
Rusty Hilger1988DET113553477592.14-2.5476-900-879
Billy Patterson1940PIT11204332850.42-2.6581-541-880
Gary Huff1974CHI133304064851.47-2.1783-716-882
Dave Brown1996NYG1649747514212.86-1.8780-927-885
Mike Phipps1975CLE143594376081.69-2.0385-728-886
Kyle Allen2019CAR1356752923664.17-1.6881-955-890
Norm Snead1961WAS1440951811562.83-1.7386-709-897
Bobby Thomason1956PHI121852831260.68-3.1873-588-898
Steve DeBerg1978SFO123343553991.19-2.5376-846-899
David Carr2005HOU1654753417523.20-1.6983-926-904
Jeff Komlo1979DET164384529342.13-2.0079-876-905
Matt Cassel2009KAN1558556621203.62-1.6085-938-907
Dennis Shaw1971BUF133384205691.68-2.1781-734-913
Randy Johnson1967ATL143464116281.82-2.2483-773-918
Kerry Collins1997CAR1343441810842.50-2.2077-954-918
Steve Bartkowski1977ATL8183226-97-0.53-4.0867-746-921
Mark Sanchez2012NYJ1550947818023.54-1.9379-985-924
Jon Kitna2001CIN1663360420493.24-1.5683-985-941
Kelly Stouffer1992SEA9225223700.31-4.2358-953-942
Jack Trudeau1986IND1245944610782.35-2.1279-973-945
Ryan Leaf1998SDG102942823941.34-3.3965-997-955
Bob Lee1974ATL9222273320.14-3.5073-776-956
Ralph Guglielmi1960WAS113024486492.15-2.1685-652-967
Blake Bortles2014JAX1458654522623.86-1.8078-1052-979
Bobby Hoying1998PHI82812693051.09-3.6463-1024-982
Bud Schwenk1942CRD114066806181.52-1.4692-593-994
Andrew Walter2006OAK123363276011.79-3.0568-1026-997
Jim Ninowski1960DET113154676772.15-2.1685-680-1008
Joe Kapp1970BOS112663252140.80-3.1172-828-1012
Jimmy Clausen2010CAR133553408222.32-2.9972-1061-1015
Don Meredith1964DAL124134899482.30-2.0884-858-1016
Gary Marangi1976BUF112933592220.76-2.8478-831-1019
Kyle Orton2005CHI1542241210182.41-2.4875-1048-1023
Carson Wentz2020PHI1253950220653.83-2.0477-1101-1025
Alex Smith2005SFO9224219430.19-4.7053-1053-1029
Zeke Bratkowski1960CHI11183271910.50-3.8173-698-1034
Jake Plummer1999ARI1244742810452.34-2.4475-1091-1043
JaMarcus Russell2009OAK122972874641.56-3.6665-1088-1052
Frank Tripucka19522TM12196280-109-0.56-3.8873-761-1088
Y.A. Tittle1964NYG143263865031.54-2.8378-923-1093
Tobin Rote1950GNB12251360710.28-3.0779-770-1102
DeShone Kizer2017CLE1559155421923.71-2.0078-1184-1110
Josh Rosen2018ARI1446143314363.11-2.5871-1190-1117
Davey O'Brien1940PHI113776134651.23-1.8487-692-1125
Babe Parilli1953GNB12208296-55-0.26-3.8274-794-1131
Dan Darragh1968BUF11250295-43-0.17-3.9773-993-1174
Joe Lillard1933CRD11186423-18-0.10-2.8477-528-1202
David Carr2002HOU1657955715032.60-2.1675-1249-1202
Archie Manning1975NOR134205115641.34-2.3882-999-1216
Tobin Rote1959DET10197292200.10-4.1670-820-1217
Blaine Gabbert2011JAX1550147514142.82-2.6173-1306-1239
Jack Jacobs1948GNB12208307-98-0.47-4.1075-852-1257
Johnny Gildea1935PIT12154305-330-2.14-4.5668-703-1390
Dan Pastorini1973HOU143514391810.52-3.2275-1131-1416
Ronnie Cahill1943CRD10171327-288-1.68-4.6972-801-1534

I don’t have too much to say here. Most of the results are exactly what the learned readers of this site would expect. I think Luckman’s 1943 still looks a little too high, but that performance tends to look a little crazy no matter how you frame it. This is because it was an incredible season, and because a league hamstrung by wartime rosters was pretty bad. When you sort by TAYP+, he drops from the top spot, though he still rates highly. This is because, although he was well above average, the standard deviation of performance in his era was absurd. And, remember, he most certainly fumbled plenty of times, but we don’t have the information to knock him for it. [7]The variation in measured performance has steadily decreased since 1979. From 1932 through 1954, the coefficient of variation was high and volatile, peaking as high as 1.1 in 1945. There was a marked … Continue reading

If you think prorating and adjusting to make old timers look better is silly, then sort by the penultimate column, VAL. I think the results are more in line with what a modern fan might consider great statistical seasons.

I’ll leave further commentary to the crowd.

References

References
1 CPOE is a useful stat when trying to get a better idea, from the numbers, who was more or less accurate than their actual completion rate may have indicated. ANY/A is good but only looks at dropbacks. Success rate is usually instructive when looking at how a quarterback leads an offense, but it is defined differently by different entities and, thus, can be difficult to discuss without first defining the term. I prefer to count plays with positive EPA successful, rather than the 40/70/100 division or some variation thereof.
2 With some caveats. We have full stats dating back to 1967. Prior to that, we don’t have full sack and sack yardage information for the AFL. We have data for sack yardage lost in the NFL dating back to 1947, but we don’t know the number of sacks themselves prior to 1963. We have precious little sack information for the AAFC. In the NFL, we don’t have fumble data earlier than 1945, and we don’t have fumbles or for the AAFC at all. Prior to 1936, NFL teams didn’t even play the same number of games, which makes serious analysis tricky. And before 1932, we only have touchdowns. This all ignores the fact that yards are awarded a whole numbers, even when only half yards are gained. A touchdown from the one inch line still counts as a one yard run, by rule. On one play, that is a small deal, but over the course of a long career, it can add up (or take away). Though it mostly evens out.
3 You can view the raw numbers that went into the final values on this Google sheet. Keep in mind, please, that this only covers the regular season. I plan to address the playoffs later on.
4 Pro Football Reference approaches this differently for their passing index scores. They simply take the standard deviation of all passers who meet a minimum threshold of passes.
5 I use the term VAL, short for value, because I can’t really think of a better term that is easy to display quickly in a table. I don’t really love that this implies that it is the same as actual value, because I don’t believe it necessarily is. The same numbers on two differently talented teams would indicate much more value came from the quarterback on the inferior team. And if one of those quarterbacks is on a rookie deal, that only increases his real life value. If you can think of a better term, please share it, because I’m in too deep to see clearly on this.
6 Yes, this will have to change again after the 2021 season, making all of the results from this post old hat.
7 The variation in measured performance has steadily decreased since 1979. From 1932 through 1954, the coefficient of variation was high and volatile, peaking as high as 1.1 in 1945. There was a marked decrease in the CV after the 1954, 1960, 1978, and 1979 seasons. As the league has become increasingly schematically homogeneous, the numbers have seen a noticeable decline in variability.
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