In December 2010, Jason Lisk wrote an interesting piece about whether race still matters when it comes to quarterback play in the NFL. That article has stuck with me over the years — I referenced it last year in a piece questioning whether Colin Kaepernick’s political stance impacted his style of play in 2016 — and the key excerpt is below:

Still, one of the things I have observed is that black quarterbacks, as a group, have tended to be better at avoiding interceptions than their white counterparts. …

Interceptions are highly random, subject to game situation, dependent on deflections, tips, the receiver running the correct route, the defender making a good play and not dropping the ball. They can also be somewhat controlled by the quarterback’s behavior. If you try to fit the ball into tight windows, your chances for both a good play and a bad one increase. There is also no other quarterback action that gets criticized as “stupid” or “dumb” like an interception thrown. I can see how black quarterbacks feel they need to be more cautious when it comes to interceptions, to avoid that criticism. I suspect that the difference in interception numbers is a real effect driven by this external pressure.

So, I think that race matters, because the numbers – as well as direct statements from McNabb and Doug Williams as quoted in Hill’s piece – tell me it matters in affecting how the black quarterbacks play the game as far as avoiding interceptions.

It’s true that black quarterbacks have produced better interception rates than white quarterbacks.  What’s even more extreme (in part because an interception is a rare event) is that black quarterbacks, on average, have worse sack rates than white quarterbacks. ^[1]There is, of course, perhaps a third factor driving that result: running quarterbacks comprises a disproprtionate number of black quarterbacks, and running quarterbacks appear to take more sacks than … Continue reading The sample sizes are not huge, but there seems to be a slight connection between black quarterbacks taking more sacks and throwing fewer interceptions — but don’t forget the key words there are “seems” and “slight”.

Looking at the NFL since 2002, the biggest examples of this, in order, are Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin, Donovan McNabb, Russell Wilson, Michael Vick, and David Garrard.  That Taylor, Kaepernick, RG3 and Wilson are such extremes in this regard would seem to think that the situation is getting more extreme, since all entered the league after Lisk’s original article.

There have been 34 quarterbacks to throw 1,000 passes from 2012 to 2017.  Among that group, Taylor ranks 2nd in INT rate, Kaepernick 5th, Wilson 8th, and Griffin 13th. Meanwhile, Griffin, Kaepernick, and Taylor have the three worst sack rates of the bunch, with Wilson having the fifth worst (only Josh McCown separates Wilson from the other three).

A picture is sometimes easier to follow, so let’s graph the results of the 34 QBs over the last six years (which is when Wilson and Griffin entered the league and Kaepernick first started).  Because sacks and interceptions are both bad, I’ve plotted both sets of data in reverse order, because my eyes like seeing good things up and to the right.  So the X-Axis shows, in descending order, interception rate, while the Y-Axis (also in descending order) shows sack rate.   The three data points at the top and to the right are Tom Brady at at 1.29 INT rate, 4.8% sack rate, Derek Carr at 1.96 INT rate, 3.9% sack rate, and Peyton Manning at 2.44, 3.2%. ^[2]If you are surprised to see Carr’s name there, well, he is quite the outlier. The reason he shows up with two Hall of Famers is because INT rate ans sack rate are his two good stats: he ranks … Continue reading

I have put most of the quarterbacks in blue, but I have put the six black quarterbacks — Griffin, Wilson, Taylor, Kaepernick, and then Cam Newton (2.65% INT rate, 7.1% sack rate) and Jameis Winston (2.85%, 5.8%) — in red dots. ^[3]In case anyone was wondering, Marcus Mariota, who is half-Samoan and half-German, is not black.

As you can see, Griffin, Wilson, Kaepernick, and Taylor are clustered together in the bottom right quadrant.  All four take a lot of sacks but also are great at avoiding interceptions, with Taylor being particularly noteworthy in this regard.  At the other end of the spectrum are  Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning, who have great sack rates but terrible INT rates.

So is there something to this?  The two black quarterbacks who don’t fit the data are also consistent with this theory: unlike Taylor/Kaepernick/Wilson, Winston and Newton were number one overall picks.  They probably do not have the same aversion to mistakes as players like Taylor, Kaepernick, and Wilson who were lesser-regarded prospects.  For a later round pick, a string of interceptions may be a death sentence, and so they are extremely careful to avoid throwing them.  For black quarterbacks, this may be more emphasized, but players with the security of a Winston or Newton may not be as concerned with having their intelligence questioned.

Also worthwhile to keep in mind: sack rate is highly correlated to quarterback ability, and Winston and Newton are good quarterbacks, so their better sack rates make sense there, too. (Wilson, of course, is the best of the bunch but plays with a horrible offensive line: football is hard to study, folks).

The other two quarterbacks in the vicinity of the bottom right quadrant are McCown (8.3% sack rate, 2.42% interception rate) and Tannehill (7.5%,2.5%).  McCown is a journeyman, so a bad sack rate makes sense as an indicator of skill.  As for his “low” interception rate, that is probably half small sample size (he had a terrible interception rate in 2011, which was not included in this study) and half a reflection of what the Taylors of the world have to face: McCown has never had much job security, and throwing interceptions is a good way to lose your job quickly.  Last year, McCown operated as an ultra-conservative passer.  Tannehill, like Wilson, has famously played behind terrible offensive lines, and his interception rate has been league-average, so his presence there is not particularly noteworthy to me.

Tomorrow, we’ll expand the data to go back to 2002. But I’m always curious to know what you think: does racial perceptions impact a quarterback’s style of play?