Last year, I derived implied SRS Ratings for each NFL team based on the initial Vegas point spreads. Well, lines have been set for the first 240 games of the year — i.e., every week but week 17 — which means we can re-run the exercise for 2014.
So how do we use point spread data to derive SRS ratings? The point spread in each game provides an implied strength margin (“ISM”) between the two teams: When the Raiders are 10-point home underdogs to Denver, that implies that Denver is 13 points better than Oakland. If we treat each ISM like we would margin of victory, then we can use the SRS to come up with team ratings. For those who need a primer on what the SRS is, you can read about it here; the rest of you can skip to the ratings:
| Rk | Team | MOV | SOS | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 5.1 | 0.92 | 6.02 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 5.53 | 0.15 | 5.68 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 4.3 | 0.81 | 5.11 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 3.5 | 0.3 | 3.8 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 3.6 | -0.39 | 3.21 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 2.07 | 0.78 | 2.85 |
| 7 | Carolina Panthers | 1.33 | 0.82 | 2.15 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 0.57 | 0.78 | 1.35 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.2 | 0.07 | 1.27 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1.3 | -0.17 | 1.13 |
| 11 | Indianapolis Colts | 1.97 | -0.89 | 1.08 |
| 12 | Detroit Lions | 0.93 | -0.03 | 0.9 |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.73 | 0.12 | 0.85 |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | 0.3 | 0.39 | 0.69 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.47 | -0.85 | 0.61 |
| 16 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.37 | 0.14 | 0.5 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.93 | -0.58 | 0.36 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | -1.27 | 1 | -0.27 |
| 19 | New York Giants | -0.23 | -0.11 | -0.35 |
| 20 | San Diego Chargers | -0.3 | -0.13 | -0.43 |
| 21 | Houston Texans | 0.4 | -1.46 | -1.06 |
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | -1.1 | -0.44 | -1.54 |
| 23 | Washington Redskins | -1.27 | -0.34 | -1.6 |
| 24 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.37 | 0.48 | -1.88 |
| 25 | St. Louis Rams | -2.7 | 0.72 | -1.98 |
| 26 | New York Jets | -2.6 | -0.03 | -2.63 |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns | -1.87 | -0.82 | -2.69 |
| 28 | Buffalo Bills | -2.6 | -0.37 | -2.97 |
| 29 | Minnesota Vikings | -3.6 | 0.47 | -3.13 |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | -1.97 | -1.31 | -3.27 |
| 31 | Oakland Raiders | -6.27 | 0.52 | -5.75 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -7.47 | -0.55 | -8.01 |
This time last year, the top five teams were…. well, the exact same five teams, albeit in a slightly different order. And the bottom three teams were… Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tennessee, in that exact order. The Broncos have the largest average margin of victory [1]Just to be clear, this analysis includes 3 points for each home team except in the London games, so these are more accurately thought of as location-adjusted expected margins of victory., but because the Seahawks face a tougher schedule, the Seahawks are implied by Vegas to be the strongest team in the NFL at six points better than average.
One interesting way to use the SRS is to see which teams have the hardest schedules. Pre-season strength of schedule is essentially meaningless when based on last year’s record, but the SOS ratings here are based on the implied strengths of each team. In my opinion, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better set of strength of schedule ratings in May than what we see here (other than the fact that they exclude week 17).
The toughest schedule this year belongs to Arizona: add in the oldest roster in the league in 2013, and it’s easy to see why Vegas is so bearish on the Cardinals in 2014. The Seahawks (+0.92) and 49ers (+0.81) have two of the next three toughest schedules (with the Panthers sandwiched between them). The Rams are a few spots down, but remember: this is only the strength of schedule for the first sixteen weeks of the season. St. Louis travels to Seattle in week 17, so the Rams schedule would be just as brutal if we included that game. The Bears having one of the five hardest schedules is a surprise after having such an easy slate in 2013. It’s true that this analysis ignores that Chicago gets to play Minnesota in week 17, which would ease their schedule strength, but the Bears face the 49ers, Patriots, Saints, and Panthers this year, along with two games against Green Bay. That’s six games against top-7 teams.
Three AFC South teams have the easiest schedules; the Jaguars would probably join the rest of the division if they had two games against Jacksonville. The Texans are set up nicely for a rebound season under Jadeveon Clowney, Bill O’Brien, and, uh, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Case Keenum/Tom Savage. What’s really incredible about Houston’s schedule: not only do the Texans have the easiest schedule through 16 weeks, the Texans host the Jaguars in week 17! Including that game would bring Houston’s schedule down to 1.9 points easier than average.
If you include that game, 8 of the Texans’ 16 games are against teams that are 1.5 points weaker than average. Playing six games against the AFC South, the NFC East and the AFC North, and the Bills and Raiders makes for about as easy a schedule as one could create. Assuming the Texans would be favored in week 17, that means Houston — which went 2-14 last year — is favored in 8 of 16 games and a pick’em in three others (Philadelphia and Cincinnati at home, Tennessee on the road). That’s pretty incredible, and explains why Vegas was so bullish on Houston.
The table below shows each game in the first sixteen weeks of the 2014 season. Here’s how to read the Seahawks/Raiders line: In week 9, Seattle hosts Oakland. The line is -14.5, which means the Seahawks are 14.5-point favorites. Seattle’s SRS is 6.0 while Oakland has an SRS of -5.8. Therefore, the line predicted by the SRS would be Seattle -14.8 (since the Raiders are 11.8 points worse than the Seahawks and on the road). The difference between the actual line and the SRS line is -0.3 points. By definition, the sum of all the differences between the actual lines and SRS lines must be 0, since the SRS lines were generated from the actual lines. The table below contains 480 rows, showing each game from the perspective of both teams (although the only searchable column is the first team column):
| Wk | Team 1 | Team 2 | H/R | Line | Tm SRS | Opp SRS | Proj SRS Line | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | Oakland Raiders | Home | -14.5 | 6 | -5.8 | -14.8 | -0.3 |
| 3 | New England Patriots | Oakland Raiders | Home | -13 | 3.2 | -5.8 | -12 | 1 |
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -12 | 1.1 | -8 | -12.1 | -0.1 |
| 14 | Denver Broncos | Buffalo Bills | Home | -11.5 | 5.7 | -3 | -11.7 | -0.2 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -11 | 1.3 | -8 | -12.3 | -1.3 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -11 | 1.1 | -8 | -12.1 | -1.1 |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | Home | -11 | 5.1 | -2 | -10.1 | 0.9 |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -10.5 | 0.4 | -8 | -11.4 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -10.5 | 6 | -0.3 | -9.3 | 1.2 |
| 4 | San Diego Chargers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -10 | -0.4 | -8 | -10.6 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | Miami Dolphins | Home | -10 | 5.7 | -1.5 | -10.2 | -0.2 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -10 | 3.8 | -3.1 | -9.9 | 0.1 |
| 10 | Seattle Seahawks | New York Giants | Home | -10 | 6 | -0.3 | -9.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -10 | 2.8 | -3.1 | -8.9 | 1.1 |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | Jacksonville Jaguars | Lond | -10 | 0.5 | -8 | -8.5 | 1.5 |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | Oakland Raiders | Road | -10 | 5.7 | -5.8 | -8.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -9 | -1.6 | -8 | -9.4 | -0.4 |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -9 | 5.7 | -0.3 | -9 | 0 |
| 12 | San Francisco 49ers | Washington Redskins | Home | -8.5 | 5.1 | -1.6 | -9.7 | -1.2 |
| 15 | Kansas City Chiefs | Oakland Raiders | Home | -8.5 | 0.8 | -5.8 | -9.6 | -1.1 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | New York Jets | Home | -8.5 | 3.8 | -2.6 | -9.4 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | San Diego Chargers | Home | -8.5 | 5.7 | -0.4 | -9.1 | -0.6 |
| 11 | San Diego Chargers | Oakland Raiders | Home | -8 | -0.4 | -5.8 | -8.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Home | -7.5 | 3.2 | -2.6 | -8.8 | -1.3 |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -7.5 | 6 | 0.5 | -8.5 | -1 |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | Cleveland Browns | Home | -7.5 | 2.1 | -2.7 | -7.8 | -0.3 |
| 5 | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -7.5 | 2.8 | -1.9 | -7.7 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans | Home | -7.5 | 1.1 | -3.3 | -7.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | Buffalo Bills | Home | -7.5 | 0.9 | -3 | -6.9 | 0.6 |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | San Diego Chargers | Home | -7 | 5.1 | -0.4 | -8.5 | -1.5 |
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers | Oakland Raiders | Road | -7 | 5.1 | -5.8 | -7.9 | -0.9 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -7 | 5.7 | 0.8 | -7.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 | Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -7 | -3.3 | -8 | -7.7 | -0.7 |
| 1 | Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -7 | 5.7 | 1.1 | -7.6 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | Tennessee Titans | Home | -7 | 1.3 | -3.3 | -7.6 | -0.6 |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -7 | 1.4 | -3.1 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | Tennessee Titans | Home | -7 | 1.1 | -3.3 | -7.4 | -0.4 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -7 | 5.1 | 0.8 | -7.3 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -7 | 0.9 | -3.1 | -7 | 0 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | Chicago Bears | Home | -7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | -6.7 | 0.3 |
| 12 | Atlanta Falcons | Cleveland Browns | Home | -7 | 0.7 | -2.7 | -6.4 | 0.6 |
| 15 | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | Home | -6.5 | 3.2 | -1.5 | -7.7 | -1.2 |
| 1 | Chicago Bears | Buffalo Bills | Home | -6.5 | 1.4 | -3 | -7.4 | -0.9 |
| 15 | Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -6.5 | 2.1 | -1.9 | -7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Home | -6.5 | 1.1 | -2.7 | -6.8 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -6.5 | 3.8 | 0.7 | -6.1 | 0.4 |
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs | St. Louis Rams | Home | -6.5 | 0.8 | -2 | -5.8 | 0.7 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -6.5 | 0.6 | -8 | -5.6 | 0.9 |
| 12 | New Orleans Saints | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -6.5 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -5.4 | 1.1 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -6.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | -5.1 | 1.4 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -6 | 5.1 | 1.3 | -6.8 | -0.8 |
| 10 | Baltimore Ravens | Tennessee Titans | Home | -6 | 0.4 | -3.3 | -6.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | New York Jets | Home | -6 | 0.8 | -2.6 | -6.4 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Chicago Bears | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -6 | 1.4 | -1.9 | -6.3 | -0.3 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | St. Louis Rams | Home | -6 | 1.3 | -2 | -6.3 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -6 | 1.1 | -8 | -6.1 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | Miami Dolphins | Home | -6 | 1.4 | -1.5 | -5.9 | 0.1 |
| 14 | Detroit Lions | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -6 | 0.9 | -1.9 | -5.8 | 0.2 |
| 13 | Indianapolis Colts | Washington Redskins | Home | -6 | 1.1 | -1.6 | -5.7 | 0.3 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | Home | -6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | -5.4 | 0.6 |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | New York Jets | Road | -6 | 5.7 | -2.6 | -5.3 | 0.7 |
| 12 | New England Patriots | Detroit Lions | Home | -6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | -5.3 | 0.7 |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | St. Louis Rams | Road | -6 | 6 | -2 | -5 | 1 |
| 13 | St. Louis Rams | Oakland Raiders | Home | -5.5 | -2 | -5.8 | -6.8 | -1.3 |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -5.5 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -5.6 | -0.1 |
| 13 | New York Giants | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -5.5 | -0.3 | -8 | -4.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | Tennessee Titans | Home | -5 | 0.8 | -3.3 | -7.1 | -2.1 |
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns | Home | -5 | 0.6 | -2.7 | -6.3 | -1.3 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | Miami Dolphins | Home | -5 | 0.9 | -1.5 | -5.4 | -0.4 |
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | Green Bay Packers | Home | -5 | 6 | 3.8 | -5.2 | -0.2 |
| 13 | Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | Home | -5 | -1.1 | -3.3 | -5.2 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Houston Texans | Buffalo Bills | Home | -5 | -1.1 | -3 | -4.9 | 0.1 |
| 4 | Miami Dolphins | Oakland Raiders | Lond | -5 | -1.5 | -5.8 | -4.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | Home | -4.5 | -2.6 | -5.8 | -6.2 | -1.7 |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | Oakland Raiders | Home | -4.5 | -2.7 | -5.8 | -6.1 | -1.6 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Redskins | Home | -4.5 | 1.3 | -1.6 | -5.9 | -1.4 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -4.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | -5.5 | -1 |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | Home | -4.5 | 1.1 | -1.1 | -5.2 | -0.7 |
| 8 | Dallas Cowboys | Washington Redskins | Home | -4.5 | 0.5 | -1.6 | -5.1 | -0.6 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | Chicago Bears | Home | -4.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | -4.8 | -0.3 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | St. Louis Rams | Road | -4.5 | 5.7 | -2 | -4.7 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | Home | -4.5 | 1.3 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | Washington Redskins | Road | -4.5 | 6 | -1.6 | -4.6 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | Houston Texans | Home | -4.5 | 0.5 | -1.1 | -4.6 | -0.1 |
| 1 | St. Louis Rams | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -4.5 | -2 | -3.1 | -4.1 | 0.4 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | Road | -4.5 | 5.1 | -2 | -4.1 | 0.4 |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | Road | -4.5 | 3.8 | -3.1 | -3.9 | 0.6 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -4.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | -3.9 | 0.6 |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers | Buffalo Bills | Road | -4.5 | 3.8 | -3 | -3.8 | 0.7 |
| 5 | San Diego Chargers | New York Jets | Home | -4 | -0.4 | -2.6 | -5.2 | -1.2 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | -5.1 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | St. Louis Rams | Home | -4 | -0.3 | -2 | -4.7 | -0.7 |
| 11 | New Orleans Saints | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | -4.7 | -0.7 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | Carolina Panthers | Home | -4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | -4.7 | -0.7 |
| 16 | Miami Dolphins | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -4 | -1.5 | -3.1 | -4.6 | -0.6 |
| 12 | San Diego Chargers | St. Louis Rams | Home | -4 | -0.4 | -2 | -4.6 | -0.6 |
| 11 | Carolina Panthers | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | -4.4 | -0.4 |
| 6 | Arizona Cardinals | Washington Redskins | Home | -4 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -4.3 | -0.3 |
| 1 | Detroit Lions | New York Giants | Home | -4 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -4.2 | -0.2 |
| 13 | Atlanta Falcons | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -4 | 0.7 | -0.3 | -4 | 0 |
| 14 | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -4 | -1.1 | -8 | -3.9 | 0.1 |
| 3 | New York Giants | Houston Texans | Home | -4 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -3.8 | 0.2 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | Oakland Raiders | Road | -4 | 0.8 | -5.8 | -3.6 | 0.4 |
| 8 | Miami Dolphins | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -4 | -1.5 | -8 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
| 16 | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Home | -4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -3.5 | 0.6 | -1.9 | -5.5 | -2 |
| 7 | Washington Redskins | Tennessee Titans | Home | -3.5 | -1.6 | -3.3 | -4.7 | -1.2 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Houston Texans | Home | -3.5 | 0.6 | -1.1 | -4.7 | -1.2 |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -4.5 | -1 |
| 11 | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | Home | -3.5 | -1.5 | -3 | -4.5 | -1 |
| 15 | New York Giants | Washington Redskins | Home | -3.5 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -4.3 | -0.8 |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions | Home | -3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | -4.2 | -0.7 |
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | Home | -3.5 | 6 | 5.1 | -3.9 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Home | -3.5 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -3.8 | -0.3 |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -3.5 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -3.8 | -0.3 |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | Home | -3.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | -3.7 | -0.2 |
| 14 | New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | Home | -3.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | -3.7 | -0.2 |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers | New England Patriots | Home | -3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | -3.6 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | Denver Broncos | Home | -3.5 | 6 | 5.7 | -3.3 | 0.2 |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Road | -3.5 | 6 | -0.3 | -3.3 | 0.2 |
| 6 | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | Road | -3.5 | 3.2 | -3 | -3.2 | 0.3 |
| 15 | Denver Broncos | San Diego Chargers | Road | -3.5 | 5.7 | -0.4 | -3.1 | 0.4 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -3.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -3.1 | 0.4 |
| 7 | Arizona Cardinals | Oakland Raiders | Road | -3.5 | -0.3 | -5.8 | -2.5 | 1 |
| 1 | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | Road | -3.5 | 3.2 | -1.5 | -1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | Dallas Cowboys | Road | -3.5 | 5.1 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 1.9 |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -3 | -1.9 | -3.1 | -4.2 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Baltimore Ravens | San Diego Chargers | Home | -3 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -3.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -3.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | -3.7 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Indianapolis Colts | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | -3.7 | -0.7 |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | San Francisco 49ers | Home | -3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | -3.6 | -0.6 |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -3.4 | -0.4 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | Minnesota Vikings | Road | -3 | 3.2 | -3.1 | -3.3 | -0.3 |
| 1 | Arizona Cardinals | San Diego Chargers | Home | -3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -3.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | New York Giants | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Road | -3 | 3.2 | -2.6 | -2.8 | 0.2 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -2.7 | 0.3 |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | -3 | 3.8 | -1.9 | -2.7 | 0.3 |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | Home | -3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | -2.5 | 0.5 |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ers | New York Giants | Road | -3 | 5.1 | -0.3 | -2.4 | 0.6 |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears | Home | -3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -2.3 | 0.7 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | Minnesota Vikings | Road | -3 | 2.1 | -3.1 | -2.2 | 0.8 |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | -3 | 5.7 | 0.8 | -1.9 | 1.1 |
| 16 | Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -3 | -3.3 | -8 | -1.7 | 1.3 |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | New Orleans Saints | Home | -3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | -1.6 | 1.4 |
| 16 | St. Louis Rams | New York Giants | Home | -3 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | Houston Texans | Washington Redskins | Home | -2.5 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -3.5 | -1 |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | San Diego Chargers | Road | -2.5 | 6 | -0.4 | -3.4 | -0.9 |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | St. Louis Rams | Home | -2.5 | -1.6 | -2 | -3.4 | -0.9 |
| 8 | New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | Home | -2.5 | -2.6 | -3 | -3.4 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Washington Redskins | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -3.3 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -2.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -3.2 | -0.7 |
| 7 | Buffalo Bills | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -2.5 | -3 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | St. Louis Rams | Home | -2.5 | -1.9 | -2 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -2.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -3 | -0.5 |
| 2 | Indianapolis Colts | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -2.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | -2.8 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Buffalo Bills | Cleveland Browns | Home | -2.5 | -3 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | Home | -2.5 | -3 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -0.1 |
| 2 | New Orleans Saints | Cleveland Browns | Road | -2.5 | 2.8 | -2.7 | -2.5 | 0 |
| 16 | Dallas Cowboys | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -2.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -2.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | Tennessee Titans | Cleveland Browns | Home | -2.5 | -3.3 | -2.7 | -2.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | Arizona Cardinals | Road | -2.5 | 5.1 | -0.3 | -2.4 | 0.1 |
| 6 | San Diego Chargers | Oakland Raiders | Road | -2.5 | -0.4 | -5.8 | -2.4 | 0.1 |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | Miami Dolphins | Road | -2.5 | 3.8 | -1.5 | -2.3 | 0.2 |
| 7 | Cleveland Browns | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -2.5 | -2.7 | -8 | -2.3 | 0.2 |
| 1 | Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -2.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -2.3 | 0.2 |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Home | -2.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | -2.3 | 0.2 |
| 12 | New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -2.5 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.2 | 0.3 |
| 9 | Cleveland Browns | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -2.5 | -2.7 | -1.9 | -2.2 | 0.3 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | -2.5 | 6 | 0.8 | -2.2 | 0.3 |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | Home | -2.5 | 5.1 | 6 | -2.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | New York Giants | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -2.5 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -2 | 0.5 |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | Green Bay Packers | Home | -2.5 | 2.8 | 3.8 | -2 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Miami Dolphins | San Diego Chargers | Home | -2.5 | -1.5 | -0.4 | -1.9 | 0.6 |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions | Home | -2.5 | -0.3 | 0.9 | -1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | Houston Texans | Oakland Raiders | Road | -2.5 | -1.1 | -5.8 | -1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | Tennessee Titans | Road | -2.5 | 0.5 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | New Orleans Saints | Home | -2.5 | 0.6 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | New York Jets | Home | -2 | -3.1 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | Carolina Panthers | Home | -2 | 1.1 | 2.1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Arizona Cardinals | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -2 | -0.3 | 0.8 | -1.9 | 0.1 |
| 7 | San Diego Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -2 | -0.4 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 0.2 |
| 8 | Arizona Cardinals | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -2 | -0.3 | 1.3 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | -2 | 2.1 | -1.9 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Tennessee Titans | Road | -2 | 0.6 | -3.3 | -0.9 | 1.1 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | Buffalo Bills | Road | -2 | 0.8 | -3 | -0.8 | 1.2 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | New York Jets | Road | -2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | -0.2 | 1.8 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -1.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -2.8 | -1.3 |
| 15 | Tennessee Titans | New York Jets | Home | -1.5 | -3.3 | -2.6 | -2.3 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -1.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -2.2 | -0.7 |
| 4 | Washington Redskins | New York Giants | Home | -1.5 | -1.6 | -0.3 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Denver Broncos | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | -1.5 | 5.7 | 1.1 | -1.6 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | Washington Redskins | Home | -1.5 | -3.1 | -1.6 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 11 | Cleveland Browns | Houston Texans | Home | -1.5 | -2.7 | -1.1 | -1.4 | 0.1 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | New Orleans Saints | Home | -1.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 | -1.1 | 0.4 |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | Carolina Panthers | Road | -1.5 | 6 | 2.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Road | -1.5 | 1.1 | -2.7 | -0.8 | 0.7 |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | San Francisco 49ers | Home | -1.5 | 2.8 | 5.1 | -0.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | Home | -1.5 | 1.4 | 3.8 | -0.6 | 0.9 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Redskins | Road | -1.5 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers | Home | -1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -2.2 | -1.2 |
| 13 | New York Jets | Miami Dolphins | Home | -1 | -2.6 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | -1 | 6 | 1.3 | -1.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | New York Giants | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -1 | -0.3 | 1.1 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| 16 | Houston Texans | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -1 | -1.1 | 0.4 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | Home | -1 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | St. Louis Rams | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -1 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens | Carolina Panthers | Home | -1 | 0.4 | 2.1 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | Road | -1 | 0.9 | -3.1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Indianapolis Colts | New England Patriots | Home | -1 | 1.1 | 3.2 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | Home | -1 | 0.7 | 2.8 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | Minnesota Vikings | Road | -1 | 0.7 | -3.1 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| 6 | Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -1 | -1.1 | 1.1 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | Cleveland Browns | Road | -1 | 1.1 | -2.7 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -1 | -1.9 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 0.3 |
| 14 | New England Patriots | San Diego Chargers | Road | -1 | 3.2 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | New England Patriots | Home | -1 | 0.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | New York Jets | Road | -1 | 0.9 | -2.6 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| 9 | New England Patriots | Denver Broncos | Home | -1 | 3.2 | 5.7 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | San Diego Chargers | Home | -1 | -3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.6 |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | Atlanta Falcons | Lond | -1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| 14 | New York Giants | Tennessee Titans | Road | -1 | -0.3 | -3.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | Detroit Lions | Road | -1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| 16 | Buffalo Bills | Oakland Raiders | Road | -1 | -3 | -5.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 0 | -1.5 | 0.4 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | New York Jets | Road | 0 | 1.4 | -2.6 | -1 | -1 |
| 12 | Houston Texans | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 0 | -1.1 | 1.1 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | Home | 0 | -3.3 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | New Orleans Saints | Home | 0 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| 3 | Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | 0 | -1.5 | 0.8 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | Houston Texans | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | 0 | -1.1 | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| 3 | St. Louis Rams | Dallas Cowboys | Home | 0 | -2 | 0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Atlanta Falcons | Home | 0 | -1.9 | 0.7 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns | Road | 0 | 0.6 | -2.7 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | Road | 0 | 0.4 | -2.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Cincinnati Bengals | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | 0 | 1.1 | -1.9 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 0 | -1.9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 0 | -2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | 0 | -2.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 10 | Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | 0 | 0.7 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | St. Louis Rams | Road | 0 | 0.5 | -2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | Houston Texans | Road | 0 | 1.3 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | Road | 0 | 0.8 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints | Dallas Cowboys | Road | 0 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 8 | Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | Road | 0 | -1.1 | -3.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | Houston Texans | Road | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | New York Jets | Chicago Bears | Home | 0 | -2.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Baltimore Ravens | Miami Dolphins | Road | 0 | 0.4 | -1.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 16 | Oakland Raiders | Buffalo Bills | Home | 1 | -5.8 | -3 | -0.2 | -1.2 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Home | 1 | 0.9 | 3.8 | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| 14 | Tennessee Titans | New York Giants | Home | 1 | -3.3 | -0.3 | 0 | -1 |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Detroit Lions | Lond | 1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -0.8 |
| 3 | San Diego Chargers | Buffalo Bills | Road | 1 | -0.4 | -3 | 0.4 | -0.6 |
| 4 | New York Jets | Detroit Lions | Home | 1 | -2.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | New England Patriots | Road | 1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 14 | San Diego Chargers | New England Patriots | Home | 1 | -0.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | 1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.4 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | 1 | 0.4 | -1.9 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Cleveland Browns | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 1 | -2.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | Atlanta Falcons | Home | 1 | -3.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | Road | 1 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| 11 | New England Patriots | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons | Road | 1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions | Home | 1 | -3.1 | 0.9 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | Baltimore Ravens | Road | 1 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 15 | Arizona Cardinals | St. Louis Rams | Road | 1 | -0.3 | -2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | Road | 1 | -1.5 | -3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | Houston Texans | Road | 1 | 0.4 | -1.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Indianapolis Colts | New York Giants | Road | 1 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 1 | 1.3 | 6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | New York Jets | Road | 1 | -1.5 | -2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10 | Carolina Panthers | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | 1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 16 | Washington Redskins | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | 1.5 | -1.6 | 1.3 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | Road | 1.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -0.9 |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | New Orleans Saints | Road | 1.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | -0.8 |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 1.5 | -2.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.7 |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 1.5 | 2.1 | 6 | 0.9 | -0.6 |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | Detroit Lions | Road | 1.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Houston Texans | Cleveland Browns | Road | 1.5 | -1.1 | -2.7 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Washington Redskins | Minnesota Vikings | Road | 1.5 | -1.6 | -3.1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos | Home | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | New York Giants | Washington Redskins | Road | 1.5 | -0.3 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys | Road | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 15 | New York Jets | Tennessee Titans | Road | 1.5 | -2.6 | -3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | Pittsburgh Steelers | Road | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 10 | New York Jets | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | 2 | -2.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -1.8 |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | 2 | -3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | 2 | -3.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | -1.1 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers | Home | 2 | -1.9 | 2.1 | 1 | -1 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | Arizona Cardinals | Road | 2 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -0.6 |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Diego Chargers | Road | 2 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 1.8 | -0.2 |
| 14 | Kansas City Chiefs | Arizona Cardinals | Road | 2 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 1.9 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | New York Jets | Minnesota Vikings | Road | 2 | -2.6 | -3.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 8 | Indianapolis Colts | Pittsburgh Steelers | Road | 2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | Road | 2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | Dallas Cowboys | Home | 2.5 | -3.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -1.7 |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | Pittsburgh Steelers | Road | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -1.7 |
| 2 | Oakland Raiders | Houston Texans | Home | 2.5 | -5.8 | -1.1 | 1.7 | -0.8 |
| 11 | Detroit Lions | Arizona Cardinals | Road | 2.5 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 1.8 | -0.7 |
| 9 | San Diego Chargers | Miami Dolphins | Road | 2.5 | -0.4 | -1.5 | 1.9 | -0.6 |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | New York Giants | Road | 2.5 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 2 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | New Orleans Saints | Road | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2 | -0.5 |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | Road | 2.5 | 6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Road | 2.5 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 2.2 | -0.3 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cleveland Browns | Road | 2.5 | -1.9 | -2.7 | 2.2 | -0.3 |
| 11 | Kansas City Chiefs | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 2.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 2.2 | -0.3 |
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | Road | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins | Green Bay Packers | Home | 2.5 | -1.5 | 3.8 | 2.3 | -0.2 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Cleveland Browns | Home | 2.5 | -8 | -2.7 | 2.3 | -0.2 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | Road | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Oakland Raiders | San Diego Chargers | Home | 2.5 | -5.8 | -0.4 | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| 16 | Indianapolis Colts | Dallas Cowboys | Road | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 2.5 | -0.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Cleveland Browns | Tennessee Titans | Road | 2.5 | -2.7 | -3.3 | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Cleveland Browns | New Orleans Saints | Home | 2.5 | -2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 12 | New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | Road | 2.5 | -2.6 | -3 | 2.6 | 0.1 |
| 13 | Cleveland Browns | Buffalo Bills | Road | 2.5 | -2.7 | -3 | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | St. Louis Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | 2.5 | -2 | -1.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings | Buffalo Bills | Road | 2.5 | -3.1 | -3 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 9 | Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers | Road | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins | Road | 2.5 | -1.9 | -1.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| 8 | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | Road | 2.5 | -3 | -2.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 14 | St. Louis Rams | Washington Redskins | Road | 2.5 | -2 | -1.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | San Diego Chargers | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 2.5 | -0.4 | 6 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | Washington Redskins | Houston Texans | Road | 2.5 | -1.6 | -1.1 | 3.5 | 1 |
| 16 | New York Giants | St. Louis Rams | Road | 3 | -0.3 | -2 | 1.3 | -1.7 |
| 15 | New Orleans Saints | Chicago Bears | Road | 3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans | Home | 3 | -8 | -3.3 | 1.7 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos | Home | 3 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | Carolina Panthers | Home | 3 | -3.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | -0.8 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | Atlanta Falcons | Road | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 2.3 | -0.7 |
| 11 | New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 3 | -0.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | -0.6 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Road | 3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens | Road | 3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2.7 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers | Home | 3 | -1.9 | 3.8 | 2.7 | -0.3 |
| 16 | New York Jets | New England Patriots | Home | 3 | -2.6 | 3.2 | 2.8 | -0.2 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | New York Giants | Road | 3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 0 |
| 1 | San Diego Chargers | Arizona Cardinals | Road | 3 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | New England Patriots | Home | 3 | -3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| 7 | San Francisco 49ers | Denver Broncos | Road | 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
| 13 | San Diego Chargers | Baltimore Ravens | Road | 3 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | 3 | -3.1 | -1.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 3.5 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | -1.9 |
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | Home | 3.5 | -1.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | -1.8 |
| 7 | Oakland Raiders | Arizona Cardinals | Home | 3.5 | -5.8 | -0.3 | 2.5 | -1 |
| 15 | San Diego Chargers | Denver Broncos | Home | 3.5 | -0.4 | 5.7 | 3.1 | -0.4 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Atlanta Falcons | Road | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 3.1 | -0.4 |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots | Home | 3.5 | -3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | Road | 3.5 | 5.7 | 6 | 3.3 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 3.5 | -0.3 | 6 | 3.3 | -0.2 |
| 13 | New England Patriots | Green Bay Packers | Road | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 0.1 |
| 14 | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Road | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | Carolina Panthers | Road | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 0.2 |
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | Dallas Cowboys | Road | 3.5 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| 7 | New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys | Road | 3.5 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| 15 | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | Road | 3.5 | 5.1 | 6 | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | Carolina Panthers | Road | 3.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 0.7 |
| 15 | Washington Redskins | New York Giants | Road | 3.5 | -1.6 | -0.3 | 4.3 | 0.8 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | Road | 3.5 | -3 | -1.5 | 4.5 | 1 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Carolina Panthers | Road | 3.5 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 1 |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans | Washington Redskins | Road | 3.5 | -3.3 | -1.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | Pittsburgh Steelers | Road | 3.5 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Road | 3.5 | -1.9 | 0.6 | 5.5 | 2 |
| 16 | Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | Road | 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Miami Dolphins | Home | 4 | -8 | -1.5 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 12 | Oakland Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | 4 | -5.8 | 0.8 | 3.6 | -0.4 |
| 3 | Houston Texans | New York Giants | Road | 4 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 3.8 | -0.2 |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Houston Texans | Home | 4 | -8 | -1.1 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Arizona Cardinals | Atlanta Falcons | Road | 4 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 4 | 0 |
| 1 | New York Giants | Detroit Lions | Road | 4 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| 6 | Washington Redskins | Arizona Cardinals | Road | 4 | -1.6 | -0.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 |
| 11 | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | Road | 4 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 0.4 |
| 16 | Minnesota Vikings | Miami Dolphins | Road | 4 | -3.1 | -1.5 | 4.6 | 0.6 |
| 12 | St. Louis Rams | San Diego Chargers | Road | 4 | -2 | -0.4 | 4.6 | 0.6 |
| 7 | Carolina Panthers | Green Bay Packers | Road | 4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 0.7 |
| 10 | St. Louis Rams | Arizona Cardinals | Road | 4 | -2 | -0.3 | 4.7 | 0.7 |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | New Orleans Saints | Road | 4 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 0.7 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | New England Patriots | Road | 4 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 |
| 5 | New York Jets | San Diego Chargers | Road | 4 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 5.2 | 1.2 |
| 15 | Buffalo Bills | Green Bay Packers | Home | 4.5 | -3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | Chicago Bears | Road | 4.5 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 3.9 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | Home | 4.5 | -3.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | -0.6 |
| 6 | St. Louis Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 4.5 | -2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | -0.4 |
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | St. Louis Rams | Road | 4.5 | -3.1 | -2 | 4.1 | -0.4 |
| 6 | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | 4.5 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 0.1 |
| 5 | Houston Texans | Dallas Cowboys | Road | 4.5 | -1.1 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 |
| 5 | Washington Redskins | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 4.5 | -1.6 | 6 | 4.6 | 0.1 |
| 11 | St. Louis Rams | Denver Broncos | Home | 4.5 | -2 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | New England Patriots | Road | 4.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 0.3 |
| 8 | Washington Redskins | Dallas Cowboys | Road | 4.5 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 0.6 |
| 15 | Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 4.5 | -1.1 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Eagles | Green Bay Packers | Road | 4.5 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 1 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | 4.5 | -1.6 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 1.4 |
| 8 | Oakland Raiders | Cleveland Browns | Road | 4.5 | -5.8 | -2.7 | 6.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | Oakland Raiders | New York Jets | Road | 4.5 | -5.8 | -2.6 | 6.2 | 1.7 |
| 4 | Oakland Raiders | Miami Dolphins | Lond | 5 | -5.8 | -1.5 | 4.3 | -0.7 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | Houston Texans | Road | 5 | -3 | -1.1 | 4.9 | -0.1 |
| 1 | Green Bay Packers | Seattle Seahawks | Road | 5 | 3.8 | 6 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | Road | 5 | -3.3 | -1.1 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| 10 | Miami Dolphins | Detroit Lions | Road | 5 | -1.5 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers | Road | 5 | -2.7 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | 5 | -3.3 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 2.1 |
| 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | New York Giants | Home | 5.5 | -8 | -0.3 | 4.7 | -0.8 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Atlanta Falcons | Road | 5.5 | -1.9 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 0.1 |
| 13 | Oakland Raiders | St. Louis Rams | Road | 5.5 | -5.8 | -2 | 6.8 | 1.3 |
| 7 | St. Louis Rams | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 6 | -2 | 6 | 5 | -1 |
| 6 | New York Jets | Denver Broncos | Home | 6 | -2.6 | 5.7 | 5.3 | -0.7 |
| 12 | Detroit Lions | New England Patriots | Road | 6 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 5.3 | -0.7 |
| 10 | Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | Road | 6 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 5.4 | -0.6 |
| 13 | Washington Redskins | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 6 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 5.7 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Detroit Lions | Road | 6 | -1.9 | 0.9 | 5.8 | -0.2 |
| 7 | Miami Dolphins | Chicago Bears | Road | 6 | -1.5 | 1.4 | 5.9 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 6 | -8 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 0.1 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Chicago Bears | Road | 6 | -1.9 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
| 5 | St. Louis Rams | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | 6 | -2 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 0.3 |
| 9 | New York Jets | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | 6 | -2.6 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 0.4 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | Baltimore Ravens | Road | 6 | -3.3 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | Road | 6 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 0.8 |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | Road | 6.5 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 5.1 | -1.4 |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans Saints | Road | 6.5 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 5.4 | -1.1 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | 6.5 | -8 | 0.6 | 5.6 | -0.9 |
| 8 | St. Louis Rams | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | 6.5 | -2 | 0.8 | 5.8 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | Green Bay Packers | Road | 6.5 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 6.1 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | 6.5 | -2.7 | 1.1 | 6.8 | 0.3 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers | Road | 6.5 | -1.9 | 2.1 | 7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | Chicago Bears | Road | 6.5 | -3 | 1.4 | 7.4 | 0.9 |
| 15 | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | Road | 6.5 | -1.5 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 1.2 |
| 12 | Cleveland Browns | Atlanta Falcons | Road | 7 | -2.7 | 0.7 | 6.4 | -0.6 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | San Francisco 49ers | Road | 7 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 6.7 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions | Road | 7 | -3.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 0 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | Road | 7 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 0.3 |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | 7 | -3.3 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 0.4 |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears | Road | 7 | -3.1 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 0.5 |
| 12 | Tennessee Titans | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | 7 | -3.3 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts | Denver Broncos | Road | 7 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 0.6 |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans | Road | 7 | -8 | -3.3 | 7.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos | Road | 7 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
| 14 | Oakland Raiders | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 7 | -5.8 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
| 16 | San Diego Chargers | San Francisco 49ers | Road | 7 | -0.4 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 1.5 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | Detroit Lions | Road | 7.5 | -3 | 0.9 | 6.9 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 7.5 | -3.3 | 1.1 | 7.4 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New Orleans Saints | Road | 7.5 | -1.9 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 0.2 |
| 16 | Cleveland Browns | Carolina Panthers | Road | 7.5 | -2.7 | 2.1 | 7.8 | 0.3 |
| 6 | Dallas Cowboys | Seattle Seahawks | Road | 7.5 | 0.5 | 6 | 8.5 | 1 |
| 7 | New York Jets | New England Patriots | Road | 7.5 | -2.6 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 1.3 |
| 11 | Oakland Raiders | San Diego Chargers | Road | 8 | -5.8 | -0.4 | 8.4 | 0.4 |
| 8 | San Diego Chargers | Denver Broncos | Road | 8.5 | -0.4 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 0.6 |
| 2 | New York Jets | Green Bay Packers | Road | 8.5 | -2.6 | 3.8 | 9.4 | 0.9 |
| 15 | Oakland Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | 8.5 | -5.8 | 0.8 | 9.6 | 1.1 |
| 12 | Washington Redskins | San Francisco 49ers | Road | 8.5 | -1.6 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 1.2 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | Denver Broncos | Road | 9 | -0.3 | 5.7 | 9 | 0 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Washington Redskins | Road | 9 | -8 | -1.6 | 9.4 | 0.4 |
| 10 | Oakland Raiders | Denver Broncos | Home | 10 | -5.8 | 5.7 | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Dallas Cowboys | Lond | 10 | -8 | 0.5 | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | Road | 10 | -3.1 | 2.8 | 8.9 | -1.1 |
| 10 | New York Giants | Seattle Seahawks | Road | 10 | -0.3 | 6 | 9.3 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | Road | 10 | -3.1 | 3.8 | 9.9 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Miami Dolphins | Denver Broncos | Road | 10 | -1.5 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 0.2 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | San Diego Chargers | Road | 10 | -8 | -0.4 | 10.6 | 0.6 |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | Road | 10.5 | -0.3 | 6 | 9.3 | -1.2 |
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Baltimore Ravens | Road | 10.5 | -8 | 0.4 | 11.4 | 0.9 |
| 9 | St. Louis Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Road | 11 | -2 | 5.1 | 10.1 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | 11 | -8 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia Eagles | Road | 11 | -8 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 1.3 |
| 14 | Buffalo Bills | Denver Broncos | Road | 11.5 | -3 | 5.7 | 11.7 | 0.2 |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | Road | 12 | -8 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 0.1 |
| 3 | Oakland Raiders | New England Patriots | Road | 13 | -5.8 | 3.2 | 12 | -1 |
| 9 | Oakland Raiders | Seattle Seahawks | Road | 14.5 | -5.8 | 6 | 14.8 | 0.3 |
Some thoughts:
- The biggest outlier games are again in week 1; as Jason Lisk noted when he ran a similar study last year, the lines build in some risk of injury (or simply risk of not knowing what’s going to happen in the future): if Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning miss time with an injury, it’s more likely to be later in the season than in week one. Additionally, if Vegas feels more confident in the early games than the late games, that will lead to some games appearing as outliers in week 1.
- The weirdest line of the season is Tennessee/Kansas City in week 1. The Chiefs are only 5-point home favorites: that’s 2.1 points lower than we would expect given the location of the game and the ratings of Kansas City (+0.8) and Tennessee (-3.3).
- As a reminder, here’s a link to the 2014 schedule grid I created; I did not assign 3 points to the home team in the three London games this year.
- For the second straight year, the Seahawks are underdogs just once: the game in San Francisco. Denver is an underdog when it travels to Seattle and Foxboro, and every other team is a dog in at least three games.
- Oakland and Jacksonville are underdogs in each of their 15 games. Considering Oakland travels to Denver in week 17, we can safely say the Raiders and Jags are projected underdogs in every game this year.
References
| ↑1 | Just to be clear, this analysis includes 3 points for each home team except in the London games, so these are more accurately thought of as location-adjusted expected margins of victory. |
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