The Jets and Eagles both lost division games in week one by the same 27-17 score. But don’t let the final score deceive you: these two games were as different as can be. With 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter of both games, the Jets trailed Buffalo 21-0 while the Eagles led 17-0 over the Washington Football Team. The final scores were not at all indicative of how the game unfolded: the Bills dominated the game start to finish, and only a late Jets touchdown kept the final score respectable. Buffalo finished with a +12.4 Game Script, meaning the Bills led — on average — by 12.4 points over every second of the game. Meanwhile, Washington had a -5.3 Game Script — trailing big early, trailing entering the 4th quarter, and only taking a lead with less than 7 minutes remaining — in the comeback win.
Every year, I calculate the game scripts each week for each NFL game. The Game Script is simply the name I assign to the points differential over every second of the game. Last year, Baltimore had the highest Game Script of week 1, and they repeated that feat on the opening weekend of 2020. There were several notable comebacks in week 1 of the 2020 season, but Washington and Chicago stood out with huge comebacks. The full Game Scripts data below.
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | CLE | Boxscore | 38 | 6 | 32 | 15.1 | 28 | 30 | 48.3% | 40 | 27 | 59.7% | |
| BUF | NYJ | Boxscore | 27 | 17 | 10 | 12.4 | 49 | 32 | 60.5% | 38 | 15 | 71.7% | |
| KAN | HOU | Boxscore | 34 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 33 | 34 | 49.3% | 36 | 22 | 62.1% | |
| SEA | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 38 | 25 | 13 | 7.9 | 38 | 20 | 65.5% | 56 | 21 | 72.7% |
| GNB | @ | MIN | Boxscore | 43 | 34 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 32 | 57.9% | 27 | 22 | 55.1% |
| NOR | TAM | Boxscore | 34 | 23 | 11 | 5.7 | 32 | 34 | 48.5% | 39 | 26 | 60% | |
| NWE | MIA | Boxscore | 21 | 11 | 10 | 5.4 | 21 | 42 | 33.3% | 31 | 27 | 53.4% | |
| RAM | DAL | Boxscore | 20 | 17 | 3 | 3.2 | 32 | 40 | 44.4% | 42 | 27 | 60.9% | |
| PIT | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 26 | 16 | 10 | 2.9 | 34 | 30 | 53.1% | 44 | 20 | 68.8% |
| OAK | @ | CAR | Boxscore | 34 | 30 | 4 | 2.5 | 30 | 31 | 49.2% | 35 | 30 | 53.8% |
| TEN | @ | DEN | Boxscore | 16 | 14 | 2 | -0.4 | 44 | 34 | 56.4% | 33 | 26 | 55.9% |
| SDG | @ | CIN | Boxscore | 16 | 13 | 3 | -2.3 | 32 | 39 | 45.1% | 39 | 28 | 58.2% |
| ARI | @ | SFO | Boxscore | 24 | 20 | 4 | -2.5 | 42 | 36 | 53.8% | 36 | 25 | 59% |
| JAX | IND | Boxscore | 27 | 20 | 7 | -2.5 | 24 | 23 | 51.1% | 47 | 22 | 68.1% | |
| WAS | PHI | Boxscore | 27 | 17 | 10 | -5.3 | 34 | 36 | 48.6% | 50 | 17 | 74.6% | |
| CHI | @ | DET | Boxscore | 27 | 23 | 4 | -5.7 | 37 | 28 | 56.9% | 43 | 29 | 59.7% |
Buffalo and Seattle, two teams with running quarterbacks, both also stood out as noticeably pass-heavy. In fact, they were the two most pass-happy teams among the 16 winners, and that’s despite having two of the highest Game Scripts of the week. The Bills finished with 49 pass plays and 32 runs, a 60.5% pass rate. The last time Buffalo passed on 60% of their plays in a game that they led by at least a touchdown after the second, third, and fourth quarters was in 1966! If we include the Josh Allen scrambles, this means Buffalo called 52 pass plays in a game where they dominated from start to finish. That is a situation worth monitoring.
Similarly, the Seahawks are famous for their conservative offense despite having a consensus top-3 quarterback in Russell Wilson. It would not be an exaggeration to call Sunday’s game one of the most pass-happy of Wilson’s career, at least after adjusting for Game Script. Seattle led most of the way, often by multiple scores, and still passed on over 65% of all plays. That just hasn’t happened since Wilson arrived in Seattle. There have been 33 games where the Seahawks led by 10+ points after three quarters and won by 10+ points, and this was easily the most pass-happy of those games. Wilson, of course, helped by being phenomenal, finishing with as many touchdown passes as incompletions.
Philadelphia also gets marked down as very pass-happy. The Eagles blew a big lead, so in some ways the Game Script is a little misleading; over the last 20 minutes of the game, Philadelphia had 18 pass plays and 2 runs. But the Eagles led after each of the first three quarters, and among all games in Eagles history, this was the most pass-happy game where they had such leads. Philadelphia was without starting running back Miles Sanders, and both the running and passing games struggled in the loss.
On the other side of things, the Patriots under Cam Newton became extremely run-happy. Newton finished with 19 pass attempts (plus two sacks); the last time Tom Brady started and finished a game with under 20 pass attempts was back in 2004. Since 1994, New England has had just two games where they ran on at least 2/3s of their plays: week 1 of the 2020 season, and a week 17 blizzard game against the Bills with Matt Cassel as quarterback where his biggest play might have been a 57-yard quick punt. If you wanted to know if the Patriots offense would look different with Cam instead of Brady, week 1 answered that question as clearly as possible. Newton also became the rare repeat member of the 15/15 club, as this was his second career game with 15 completions and 15 rushes. There have only been 8 such games since 1950: four by Lamar Jackson last year, one by Al Dorow for the Titans in 1960, and Tobin Rote for the Packers in 1951.
Two other teams — the Chargers and Washington — also stood out as run-heavy. In both cases, the teams have quarterbacks they don’t quite trust (Dwayne Haskins and Tyrod Taylor) to win them the game, and both also topped five carries on the ground. Those two make some sense, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see both teams finish the year with strong running identities.