Regular readers know all about Game Scripts, the term I’ve used to represent the average margin of lead or deficit over the course of every second of a game. Let’s use the Seahawks-Panthers game to explain how to calculate the Game Script score.

Steven Hauschka’s field goal with 9:40 left in the second quarter was the first score of the game; that means for the first 20 minutes and 20 seconds, the score was tied. Cam Newton responded with a touchdown drive, hitting Steve Smith for a three-yard score with 3:20 left in the half. So for six minutes and twenty seconds, the Panthers trailed by three. It wasn’t until 2:26 left in the third quarter that the next score occurred, courtesy of Hauschka’s second field goal of the day. This means the Panthers led by four for fifteen minutes and fifty-four seconds. Russell Wilson threw the game-winning touchdown with 10:21 remaining, the final score of the day. This means for 7:05, the Seahawks trailed by a point, and then for 10:21, Seattle led by five points (following an unsuccessful two-point conversion attempt).

As it turns out, that gives us a Game Script of exactly 0.00. In other words, on average, this game was tied. Here’s how to do the math:

By comparison, the Jacksonville-Kansas City game was much more one-sided:

• With 12:32 left in the first quarter, J.T. Thomas blocked Dustin Colquitt’s punt, which resulted in a Jaguars safety.
• That lead lasted all of three minutes and twenty-three seconds, which is how long it took for Alex Smith to find Donnie Avery for a five-yard score with 9:09 left in the first.
• Next, Smith connected with Junior Hemingway for a three-yard touchdown with 1:40 left in the first quarter.
• With 6:29 left in the second quarter, Jamaal Charles punched it in for a short touchdown, bringing the score to 21-2.
• The final score of the day was a Tamba Hali pick six of Blaine Gabbert, with 12:51 left in the fourth quarter.

Here’s how that game looked, which resulted in a Game Script of 15.6:

Tm	Margin	Duration	Margin*Duration
Kansas City	0	2.47	0
Kansas City	-2	3.38	-6.8
Kansas City	5	7.48	37.4
Kansas City	12	10.18	122.2
Kansas City	19	23.63	449
Kansas City	26	12.85	334.1
Average		60	15.6

I’ve whipped up a program to calculate the Game Scripts of every game in week one. ^[1]Here’s some fine print. I would like to run Game Script numbers pretty frequently during the year. Normally, it takes several hours to calculate Game Scripts at the end of the season, and it … Continue reading To no one’s surprise, Houston’s huge comeback in the late game Monday Night gave them a win, and the Texans had the lowest game script of any winning team in week one.

Winner		Loser	Bosxcore	PF	PA	Margin	Game Script
Kansas City Chiefs	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	Boxscore	28	2	26	15.6
Philadelphia Eagles	@	Washington Redskins	Boxscore	33	27	6	12
Denver Broncos		Baltimore Ravens	Boxscore	49	27	22	6.3
Dallas Cowboys		New York Giants	Boxscore	36	31	5	6
Miami Dolphins	@	Cleveland Browns	Boxscore	23	10	13	3.6
Indianapolis Colts		Oakland Raiders	Boxscore	21	17	4	3.4
Tennessee Titans	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	Boxscore	16	9	7	3
San Francisco 49ers		Green Bay Packers	Boxscore	34	28	6	2.4
New England Patriots	@	Buffalo Bills	Boxscore	23	21	2	2.3
Seattle Seahawks	@	Carolina Panthers	Boxscore	12	7	5	0
Detroit Lions		Minnesota Vikings	Boxscore	34	24	10	0
New Orleans Saints		Atlanta Falcons	Boxscore	23	17	6	-0.8
Chicago Bears		Cincinnati Bengals	Boxscore	24	21	3	-1.1
New York Jets		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Boxscore	18	17	1	-2
St. Louis Rams		Arizona Cardinals	Boxscore	27	24	3	-2.6
Houston Texans	@	San Diego Chargers	Boxscore	31	28	3	-7.7

This may not have been the worst day ever for Philip Rivers — after all, he threw four touchdown passes — but it’s another disappointing loss for a Chargers team that is known for disappointing losses. In 2012, San Diego had the 11th best Game Script average and had the lead during 53% of all game seconds (the 7th best mark), but finished 7-9 after losing fourth quarter leads in four games. Only once did a team in 2012 post a Game Script of seven points or higher and lose last year: the Chargers against Mike McCoy’s Broncos.

I want to introduce one other stat today, and solicit input from the crowd. We all have heard the stat on where each team’s average drive started, but I went a step further and calculated the average yardline of each team in each play in week one. In other words, how far from their own endzone was each team on its average snap in week one? A higher number means a team operated more frequently in enemy territory — having the ball on your opponent’s one-yard line gets recorded as a “99” while having the ball at your own one is simply a “1.” The numbers below have some errors, like all play-by-play data, but I don’t think that will be too significant. ^[2]For example, I’ve got the Eagles at 75 plays, not the 77 they officially ran. My play-by-play missed the final kneel down at the end of the game and the following third down attempt in the … Continue reading

Team	# plays	Avg Yardline
OAK	62	55.4
TEN	63	54.5
DET	75	53.5
PHI	75	53.3
SFO	75	53
NWE	88	51.7
HOU	73	51.5
ATL	54	50.8
NYG	59	48.9
CHI	60	48.7
DAL	73	46.5
CLE	71	46
STL	62	45.9
KAN	62	45.8
NOR	66	45.2
SDG	51	44.8
DEN	67	44
SEA	59	43.5
GNB	57	43.2
WAS	68	42.6
MIA	65	42.4
PIT	53	42.3
CAR	50	42.1
NYJ	73	41.6
IND	53	40.7
ARI	69	40.3
CIN	55	40.2
BAL	86	38.6
TAM	58	36.6
BUF	60	34.7
MIN	52	32.9
JAX	70	31.1

This means that on average, the Raiders average snap came inside the Colts 45-yard line, while the average Jacksonville offensive snap was at their own 31. I have my thoughts on how to use this information, but I don’t want to prejudice the reader. To entice you to provide your thoughts in the comments, here are the results from the 2012 season:

Team	# Plays	Avg Yardline
NYG	965	51.4
NWE	1188	50.9
SFO	960	49.6
DEN	1088	49.5
ATL	1018	49.4
CIN	1013	48.6
GNB	1038	48.5
MIN	998	48.4
SEA	968	47.8
PHI	1069	47.6
DET	1156	47.4
WAS	990	47.2
HOU	1087	47.1
TAM	1004	47
NYJ	1027	46.8
PIT	1020	46.6
IND	1107	46.6
CAR	985	46.4
SDG	984	46.3
CHI	997	46
DAL	1045	45.9
BAL	1035	45.8
JAX	989	45.3
NOR	1065	45.1
MIA	977	45
OAK	1023	44.9
KAN	1011	44.9
BUF	980	44.9
ARI	1009	44.8
CLE	995	44.6
STL	995	44
TEN	953	42.7

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References

↑1

Here’s some fine print. I would like to run Game Script numbers pretty frequently during the year. Normally, it takes several hours to calculate Game Scripts at the end of the season, and it takes no less time to calculate them for one week than for seventeen. However, I found a way to cut a couple of corners and get Game Scripts calculated pretty quickly. The downside is it’s possible the Game Scripts scores I present will be inaccurate by a couple of tenths of a point from time to time. I don’t consider that a big deal, but I wanted to alert you to that possibility.

↑2

For example, I’ve got the Eagles at 75 plays, not the 77 they officially ran. My play-by-play missed the final kneel down at the end of the game and the following third down attempt in the third quarter: Michael Vick pass incomplete deep left intended for Riley Cooper. Penalty on Brent Celek: Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, Penalty on Brent Celek: Offensive Holding (Declined). In the interest of full disclosure, I always want to let you guys know when I’m working with non-exact/nonofficial data. But if I want to produce current data with a short turnaround, I’m going to have to cut some corners. This is my way of preempting anyone in the comments say “what are you talking about!! The Eagles ran 77 plays, not 75! This post is a huge waste of my time!” Which is ironic, since I now know that is a lock to happen.