Jameis Wins a ton.
Of course, FSU is still on the outside looking in when it comes to the BCS. If Oregon and Alabama remain undefeated, that’s your national championship game, a matchup college football fans have been pining for each of the past few seasons. Obviously an undefeated FSU team would deserve to be in the title game, just like an undefeated Alabama and undefeated Oregon would, too. Such is life in (thankfully, the last year of) college football’s two-team playoff system. But if we’re forced to split hairs, is FSU better than Alabama and/or Oregon? And what do we make of an Ohio State team that’s now 21-0 under Urban Meyer?
Let’s start with the SRS ratings through ten weeks. As a reminder, you can read about the methodology here. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game.
Ohio State has looked dominant the last two weeks, so why are the Buckeyes all the way down at #7? Let’s investigate with a look at their SRS score from each game, to see why Ohio State has a rating of “only” 57.7:
California is terrible this year — #93 in the SRS — so an 18-point road win makes Ohio State look like just a good team, not a championship contender. Is that fair? I leave that up to you, but consider that Cal is 0-8 against FBS teams this year, with five of those losses coming by 24 or more points. In Eugene, Oregon beat Cal 55-16. Ten-point wins against both Northwestern (2-5 against BCS teams this year) and Iowa (a team that lost to Northern Illinois, and lost by more points to Michigan State and Wisconsin) don’t help the Buckeyes’ cause, either. The last two weeks, OSU has been great, but frankly, that’s how Florida State, Oregon, and Baylor have looked all year long.
Now, what about Alabama? The Crimson Tide have a rating of 63.3, which puts them nearly seven points behind FSU, and over three points behind both Baylor and Oregon. But is there a middle ground explanation, where we can use the SRS and still put Alabama on an equal field with the other top teams?
Alabama’s rating is being harmed by the simple fact of scheduling Georgia State, the 119th best team in the FBS. Now I’m all for questioning why does Alabama need to schedule Georgia State — I mean, really, why? — but from a computer ratings standpoint, some manipulation is probably in order. To earn a 67-point SRS rating at home against Georgia State (SRS of 13), the Crimson Tide would have had to win by 91 points (to give them a MOV of 56). Essentially, the SRS notes that Chattanooga beat Georgia State by 28 points, so Alabama only outdid Chattanooga by 14 points. The safest thing to do is probably just eliminate that game from Alabama’s schedule, which would bump up Alabama to an SRS of 65.8. If you eliminate the Colorado State game — which you would do for the same reason, albeit the logic isn’t as strong — the Crimson Tide get bumped to 67.7. That would put them ahead of everyone other than Florida State.
(On the other hand, it’s worth acknowledging that ‘Bama is getting (deservedly so) a lot of benefit of the doubt in the polls. Alabama has played just one team in the top 25 in the SRS, and Johnny Manziel nearly led an A&M upset all by himself. A 25-0 win over Ole Miss in September is the only other time the Crimson Tide have faced a team in the top 35 of the SRS. Alabama’s schedule has been easier than Florida State’s, but the Crimson Tide tend to get the benefit of the doubt. Of course, with LSU, Auburn, and either Missouri or South Carolina (in the SECCG) on deck, Alabama will either prove itself against tough competition or drop from the unbeaten ranks.)
What about Baylor?
The Bears played Wofford, an FCS school with a better SRS rating than Georgia State, but won by 66 points. As a result, their rating barely improves to 67.9 if you remove the FCS game. Baylor has been remarkably consistent this year, with their one close game coming against a strong KSU team. The Bears are a legitimate top-four team, although I don’t think I’d put them above Alabama. That schedule has been horrible, but fortunately, this is just a theoretical point: with Oklahoma (#30 in the SRS), Texas Tech (#36), Oklahoma State (#11), TCU (#50), and Texas (#32) rounding out the schedule, Baylor can prove its worth on the field. And it doesn’t appear as though Vegas is convinced, either, as the Bears are “only” 14 point home favorites against the Sooners on Thursday night, despite being 20 points better in the SRS. Still, we must at least acknowledge that Bryce Petty is putting up some Star Wars numbers: 2,463 yards on 177 attempts, 18 touchdowns, and just one interception, for a 13.9 yards per attempt average and a 15.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt average. Those last two figures lead the nation by over two yards per attempt.
Let’s round it out with putting Oregon under the microscope.
We need a Nicholls State adjuster, just like we did for Georgia State. Oregon won by 63 points but gets harmed in the ratings for that game; remove it, and Oregon jumps to 69.0. (Note: The Ducks are 10-point favorites at Stanford (SRS of 56) on Thursday night, which perfectly jives with this adjustment.) Right now, it’s hard to separate Oregon, Baylor, and Alabama, but it seems clear to me that Ohio State is a tier behind all three.
Let’s close with a look at the best and worst performances from week 10 in college football. FSU produced the best game of the week, but Arizona State wasn’t far behind. The Sun Devils are fifth in the SRS — ahead of not just every other two-loss team, but all one-loss teams, too — and looked oustanding again this week. Yes, ASU lost in Arlington against Notre Dame and by two touchdowns in Palo Alto, but they also beat Washington, Washington State, and Southern Cal by 84 combined points.
