Brian Burke has Denver first, San Francisco second, and Houston third (although his algorithm leaves the Patriots batting in the nine hole). Football Outsiders puts the 49ers first, followed by the Patriots and Broncos (and his algorithm has Atlanta down at #12). I don’t see much room separating any of those teams, although I’d probably rank them Houston, Denver, San Francisco, Green Bay, New England, Atlanta, if forced to choose. But power rankings at this stage of the game (like every other week!) are meaningless; all six teams will make the playoffs, where their true legacies will be formed.
[As always, the number of wins I’m projecting each team to finish the season with is in column 3. The fourth column – PWIN – shows how many wins I projected last week, and the difference column represents how many wins I added or subtracted this week. The “RSOS” column stands for the remaining SOS for the team, based on the number of projected wins I’m giving to each of their opponents. The “RHG” column stands for remaining home games.]
Happy Thanksgiving to all the readers out there. Check back at noon EST for some Turkey Day trivia.
Team | Rec | Wins | PrvWin | Diff | RemSOS | RemHG | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Texans | 9-1 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.521 | 2 | Sure, it was against Jacksonville, but still good to see Houston win when the game doesn't go according to script. |
Atlanta Falcons | 9-1 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | Well I'm certainly not going to bump Atlanta after that game. |
Denver Broncos | 7-3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.354 | 3 | I can't project more than 13 wins for Denver, right? |
San Francisco 49ers | 7-2-1 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 1 | 0.484 | 2 | Considering the opponent, I'm not sure I've seen a better offensive performance all year. Alex Smith may have been Wally Pipped |
New England Patriots | 7-3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.484 | 3 | Patriots look fantastic, but a difficult remaining schedule makes it hard to project a 5-1 finish. |
Green Bay Packers | 7-3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | I'm now projecting the Packers to win the NFC North without the need for a tiebreaker. Nate Silver, watch out. |
Baltimore Ravens | 8-2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.542 | 3 | According to Football Outsiders, Baltimore has the best special teams since 1991 through 10 weeks. Schatz tweeted that Baltimore's the 16th best team based on just offense and defense. |
Chicago Bears | 7-3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 0.500 | 3 | In what has become a November ritual, Jay Cutler's agent is getting very excited, because we are seeing just how much the Bears need him. Although no quarterback could have succeeded against San Francisco. |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 0.438 | 3 | An easy schedule should be the saving grace, but hard to ignore that the glaring quarterback issues here. |
New York Giants | 6-4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.583 | 3 | The lead in the NFC East is getting smaller; the Giants' margin for error is razor thin right now. |
Seattle Seahawks | 6-4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.479 | 3 | If the passing game can click, Seahawks should cruise to a playoff berth. |
Indianapolis Colts | 6-4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | Rude awakening, but the Colts don't need to be all that good to make the playoffs. |
Dallas Cowboys | 5-5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.469 | 4 | Survive and advance against Cleveland. Matchup against Robert Griffin III should be fantastic. |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6-4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.609 | 3 | I really like the direction Tampa Bay is going. Unfortunately, they have a difficult schedule and will lose a tiebreaker to both the Giants and Cowboys. |
New Orleans Saints | 5-5 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0.599 | 3 | Saints fans may want to start calculating tiebreaker scenarios with the Giants, Cowboys and Seahawks. |
Cincinnati Bengals | 5-5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.479 | 3 | Everything about this team screams 8-8. Although with A.J. Green and Geno Atkins, they have a couple of potential All-Pros. |
Minnesota Vikings | 6-4 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0.630 | 2 | They had a very good bye week, which consisted of watching the Bears -- their opponent in two of the next three weeks -- look like the Chiefs. |
Miami Dolphins | 4-6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 0.547 | 4 | A few weeks ago, this was the 4th best team in the conference. Now they're the 4th best team in a terrible division. What happened? |
Tennessee Titans | 4-6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.479 | 3 | On again, off again, Chris Johnson did zilch last week. |
Washington Redskins | 4-6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0.490 | 3 | Robert Griffin III looked outstanding off of a bye week. Washington just needs to keep him healthy. |
New York Jets | 4-6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0.417 | 3 | Jets looked good against the Rams; do they blow all that goodwill tonight? |
Buffalo Bills | 4-6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0.411 | 4 | If Buffalo can upset Indianapolis, realistic to think the #6 seed is in play for them with three straight workable home games on deck. |
San Diego Chargers | 4-6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.490 | 4 | Norv Turner and Philip Rivers should thank the Jets and the Eagles for taking attention away from how far they've fallen. |
Detroit Lions | 4-6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.646 | 4 | Lions' season effectively over, as it is most years by Thanksgiving. |
Carolina Panthers | 2-8 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.427 | 2 | As bad as they've looked, three games against the bottom of the AFC West and Philadelphia should help. Burke still says they're better than we think. |
Arizona Cardinals | 4-6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.510 | 3 | At this point, even I feel bad making fun of the Cardinals. |
Oakland Raiders | 3-7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.406 | 3 | Underachieving and injured, this Raiders team looks like just about every other Oakland team over the last decade. An easy schedule will help. |
St. Louis Rams | 3-6-1 | 5.5 | 6.5 | -1 | 0.526 | 2 | When you get blown out, at home, by a team that spent the whole week forgetting they have a game, you move down in the rankings. |
Philadelphia Eagles | 3-7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | Eagles are reminding me of the 2011 Bucs -- they appear to be in full-fledged quit mode. |
Cleveland Browns | 2-8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.479 | 3 | Browns will play hard, but still lack the talent to do much. Interesting rivalry game this week against a banged up Steelers team. |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.469 | 3 | I don't think Chad Henne is the answer, but his performance is a sign that Blaine Gabbert isn't, either. |
Kansas City Chiefs | 1-9 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0.531 | 3 | Matt Barkley was hurt last weekend, but Chiefs fans weren't happy about that injury to a USC quarterback. |