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Week 12 College Football SRS Ratings

Your assumptions are no longer valid.

Kansas State entered the weekend as the most balanced team in college football. Through 11 weeks, Baylor ranked 120th in yards allowed and 118th in points allowed. But last night in Waco, the Wildcats were unable to do much of anything on offense. Collin Klein had never thrown more than one interception in a game in his career; he threw 3 against the Bears. Kansas State was averaging 213 rushing yards per game, but Baylor limited them to just 76 rushing yards. The Wildcats hadn’t allowed more than 30 points in a game this year; Baylor scored 52 points in the first three quarters and ended the game with 580 yards of offense. The most balanced and consistent team in the country was demolished by one of the most one-dimensional teams in college football.

Who needs Andrew Luck?

At the same time, another surprise was happening in Eugene. If there was one thing we knew in 2012, it was that the Oregon offense was unstoppable. This has been the case for years — since Chip Kelly arrived in 2007, the Ducks had scored at least 24 points in every home game. Against Stanford, the Ducks were held to just 14 points in an overtime loss.

In their first years in the post-Andrew Luck and post-Robert Griffin III, the Stanford and Baylor programs dominated the college football headlines on the most important weekend of the season. For the first time in five years, the #1 and #2 teams in the BCS fell on the same day, rendering all of our national championship game assumptions moot.

This much is clear: if Notre Dame defeats USC at the Coliseum on Saturday, the Fighting Irish are going to the BCS National Championship Game. The winner of the SEC Championship Game is going there as well, barring an upset by Georgia Tech in Athens this weekend. [1]No, we’re not getting into hypotheticals that involve Auburn beating Alabama. I maintain that Georgia is far less deserving of its spot in Atlanta than Florida, who has the most impressive trio of wins this year by defeating LSU, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. Georgia lost to South Carolina but beat Florida, which gave them the tiebreaker and the division crown. But the real key for Bulldogs was that they faced Mississippi and Auburn in the West, not LSU and A&M; as a result, they are the SEC East Champions.

But now is the time for more relevant debates. Assuming an upset — either by USC, or by Georgia Tech coupled with a Georgia upset against Alabama — who is next in line? At that point, four teams will have legitimate claims for the other golden ticket: Florida, Florida State, Oregon, and Kansas State. Fortunately, the Gators and Seminoles play each other on Saturday, which would leaves us with just three promising candidates.

If they defeat Florida State, Florida is the clear “next team up” following a slip-up by Notre Dame or in the event of a two-loss SEC Champ. The computers would love them due to their strength of schedule, and the voters should love them for the same reason and the bump they would get for defeating Florida State.

If FSU wins, their case is much weaker. The computers hate them, and for good reason: they haven’t beaten any good teams. Defeating the Gators would give them a big bump, and they’ll get a chance to beat mediocre team in the ACC Championship Game, but consider: Outside of 10-1 Clemson, each of FSU’s other 9 victories have come against ACC, Big East, or FCS schools that have at least 5 losses. And how good is Clemson? Yes, they have a nice record, but their 10 wins have come against Ball State (#64 in the SRS), and ACC, SEC, or FCS teams with at least five losses.

According to the SRS, North Carolina is the 3rd best team in the conference and they rank 45th. FSU lost to a bad N.C. State team, while while Oregon (in particular) and Kansas State have much more palatable losses. FSU’s argument would be two parts “we lost earliest” and one part “we beat Florida and Clemson, even if Clemson hasn’t beaten anybody.” Florida State’s overall strength of schedule is far inferior to that both Oregon’s and Kansas State’s. In my opinion, even with a win over Florida, the Seminoles likely do not jump both Oregon and Kansas State in the BCS, nor should they.

And consider: if Stanford defeats UCLA this weekend, the Cardinal — and not Oregon — would win the Pac-12 North, which would deal a significant blow to Nike University. Kansas State still needs to get by Texas, but tonight might not end up being a season killer. At this point, they need to root for USC and Florida State, which is historically not a bad position to be in. My guess is Kansas State is next in line after an undefeated Notre Dame, a one-loss SEC Champ, and a one-loss Florida team. It’s possible only one of those three exist by the end of the season.

Let’s take a look at the SRS ratings after 11 weeks. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe. [2]In the interest of time, I called the Oregon State-Cal game at 55-14, the score early in the fourth quarter. The final score was 62-14.

RkTeamConfConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1AlabamaSEC11123.141.764.810-1
2OregonP1211123.541.164.610-1
3Texas A&MSEC21117.543.260.79-2
4Kansas StB1211116.643.359.910-1
5OklahomaB1221015.343.558.88-2
6Notre DameIND--111542.957.911-0
7FloridaSEC3111344.357.410-1
8GeorgiaSEC41116.940.357.110-1
9Oregon StP12210946.955.98-2
10StanfordP123119.945.755.59-2
11LSUSEC51111.54455.59-2
12Florida StACC11123.531.855.310-1
13Oklahoma StB123101441.255.27-3
14South CarolinaSEC61112.541.854.29-2
15Southern CalP124119.744.153.87-4
16TexasB124109.843.853.68-2
17ClemsonACC21117.635.753.410-1
18UCLAP1251111.341.652.99-2
19Ohio StateB1011114.338.552.811-0
20Utah StWAC11116.734.951.69-2
21Arizona StP126119.142.151.26-5
22MichiganB1021110.440.550.98-3
23NebraskaB1031110.739.950.59-2
24BaylorB125104.745.850.55-5
25WisconsinB104118.841.350.17-4
26ArizonaP127113.545.649.17-4
27Fresno StMWC111153449.18-3
28Brigham YoungIND--119.938.948.86-5
29Texas TechB126115.442.547.97-4
30Penn StateB105119.537.947.47-4
31Mississippi StSEC7117.93946.98-3
32Iowa StB127111.845.146.96-5
33San José StWAC21113.233.546.79-2
34Boise StMWC21114.332.446.69-2
35WashingtonP128110.545.946.47-4
36Northern IllinoisMAC1111828.146.110-1
37VanderbiltSEC8117.438.245.77-4
38NorthwesternB106115.739.945.78-3
39TCUB128105.939.645.56-4
40MississippiSEC911044.844.85-6
41Louisiana TechWAC31113.531.144.79-2
42MissouriSEC1011-1.345.944.65-6
43Michigan StB107111.543.144.65-6
44Central FloridaCUS11112.132.444.58-3
45North CarolinaACC31111.433.144.57-4
46UtahP12911-145.344.44-7
47CincinnatiBgE11011.432.6447-3
48West VirginiaB12910-1.845.543.75-5
49RutgersBgE21012.231.343.59-1
50San Diego StMWC3119.13443.18-3
51TulsaCUS2111131.742.79-2
52Miami FLACC4110.941.842.66-5
53LouisvilleBgE3108.533.742.29-1
54SyracuseBgE411240.142.16-5
55Georgia TechACC5116.535.5426-5
56Louisiana-MonroeSun111734417-4
57TennesseeSEC1111-242.340.34-7
58Arkansas StSun2117.632.640.28-3
59Kent StMAC21110.829.139.910-1
60Louisiana-LafayetteSun3105.234.839.96-4
61Virginia TechACC6110.938.439.35-6
62ArkansasSEC1211-5.544.5394-7
63North Carolina StACC7112.236.738.96-5
64Ball StMAC3114.534.438.88-3
65CaliforniaP121012-8.847.538.73-9
66ToledoMAC4115.233.338.48-3
67PurdueB10811-1.74038.45-6
68PittsburghBgE5103.334.537.74-6
69IowaB10911-3.64137.44-7
70MinnesotaB101011-1.238.337.16-5
71Middle Tennessee StSun4103.932.336.27-3
72Western KentuckySun5112.933.236.16-5
73SMUCUS3111.534.235.75-6
74NavyIND--112.333.235.47-4
75NevadaMWC4114.43135.47-4
76DukeACC811-2.337.635.26-5
77AuburnSEC1311-7.342.535.23-8
78IndianaB101111-338.235.24-7
79South FloridaBgE610-4.43934.63-7
80Bowling GreenMAC511726.833.87-4
81KansasB121011-14.448.133.71-10
82TroySun611-0.333.533.25-6
83East CarolinaCUS4110.93232.97-4
84KentuckySEC1411-1244.532.52-9
85Ohio U.MAC6117.424.732.18-3
86VirginiaACC911-6.638.732.14-7
87Air ForceMWC5112.928.631.56-5
88Washington StP121111-13.54531.52-9
89RiceCUS511-0.932.231.35-6
90Boston CollegeACC1011-940312-9
91TempleBgE710-5.336.2314-6
92ConnecticutBgE810-1.732.430.84-6
93MarylandACC1111-6.436.730.44-7
94WyomingMWC611-5.935.129.24-7
95MarshallCUS611-231295-6
96Western MichiganMAC712-1.830.8294-8
97HoustonCUS711-5.634.328.74-7
98Texas St-San MarcosWAC410-7.135.728.63-7
99UTEPCUS811-7.535.828.33-8
100Wake ForestACC1211-9.837.928.15-6
101Florida AtlanticSun711-83628.13-8
102Florida Int'lSun811-6.634.327.73-8
103New MexicoMWC712-4.63227.44-8
104Colorado StMWC811-1037.127.13-8
105UNLVMWC912-936.1272-10
106North TexasSun911-6.933.826.94-7
107IllinoisB101211-13.539.926.42-9
108Central MichiganMAC811-631.525.55-6
109BuffaloMAC911-6.331.725.44-7
110Alabama-BirminghamCUS911-7.43224.63-8
111MemphisCUS1011-832.424.43-8
112Texas-San AntonioWAC5112.221.523.77-4
113Miami OHMAC1011-9.832.8234-7
114ArmyIND--11-1234.722.72-9
115ColoradoP121211-23.445.822.41-10
116South AlabamaSun1011-9.931.821.92-9
117Eastern MichiganMAC1111-12.83421.22-9
118TulaneCUS1111-15.135.420.22-9
119AkronMAC1211-10.129.819.71-10
120Southern MissCUS1211-1836.518.50-11
121Hawai`iMWC1010-1937.318.31-9
122New Mexico StWAC610-16.232.816.71-9
123IdahoWAC711-2136.915.91-10
124MassachusettsMAC1311-22.133.811.71-10

And the weekly results:

RankDateTm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
111-17-2012Baylor_B1252Kansas St24HomeWin2824.5B1259.984.4
211-17-2012Oklahoma St_B1259Texas Tech21HomeWin3829.5B1247.977.4
311-17-2012Stanford_P1217Oregon14RoadWin37P1264.671.6
411-17-2012Oregon St_P1255California14HomeWin4131P1238.769.7
511-17-2012Mississippi St_SEC45Arkansas14HomeWin3126SEC3965
611-17-2012Arizona St_P1246Washington St7HomeWin3930P1231.561.5
711-17-2012Iowa St_B1251Kansas23RoadWin2827.5B1233.761.2
811-17-2012Georgia_SEC45Georgia Southern14HomeWin3126fcs34.860.8
911-17-2012UCLA_P1238Southern Cal28HomeWin107P1253.860.8
1011-17-2012Miami FL_ACC40South Florida9HomeWin3126BgE34.660.6
1111-17-2012Vanderbilt_SEC41Tennessee18HomeWin2320SEC40.360.3
1211-17-2012Ohio State_B1021Wisconsin14RoadWin710B1050.160.1
1311-17-2012Michigan_B1042Iowa17HomeWin2522B1037.459.4
1411-17-2012Nebraska_B1038Minnesota14HomeWin2421B1037.158.1
1511-17-2012Notre Dame_IND38Wake Forest0HomeWin3829.5ACC28.157.6
1611-15-2012North Carolina_ACC37Virginia13RoadWin2425.5ACC32.157.6
1711-17-2012Florida St_ACC41Maryland14RoadWin2727ACC30.457.4
1811-17-2012Arizona_P1234Utah24RoadWin1013P1244.457.4
1911-17-2012Memphis_CUS46Alabama-Birmingham9RoadWin3732CUS24.656.6
2011-17-2012San José St_WAC20Brigham Young14HomeWin67IND48.855.8
2111-17-2012Penn State_B1045Indiana22HomeWin2320B1035.255.2
2211-17-2012Texas A&M_SEC47Sam Houston St28HomeWin1916fcs39.255.2
2311-17-2012Utah St_WAC48Louisiana Tech41RoadWin710WAC44.754.7
2411-17-2012Rice_CUS36SMU14HomeWin2219CUS35.754.7
2511-14-2012Ball St_MAC52Ohio U.27HomeWin2522MAC32.154.1
2611-17-2012Rutgers_BgE10Cincinnati3RoadWin710BgE4454
2711-17-2012Washington_P1238Colorado3RoadWin3531P1222.453.4
2811-17-2012Kentucky_SEC34Samford3HomeWin3126fcs26.352.3
2911-17-2012LSU_SEC41Mississippi35HomeWin67SEC44.851.8
3011-17-2012West Virginia_B1249Oklahoma50HomeLoss-1-7B1258.851.8
3111-17-2012Temple_BgE63Army32RoadWin3129IND22.751.7
3211-17-2012Northwestern_B1023Michigan St20RoadWin37B1044.651.6
3311-17-2012Syracuse_BgE31Missouri27RoadWin47SEC44.651.6
3411-17-2012Boise St_MWC42Colorado St14HomeWin2824.5MWC27.151.6
3511-17-2012Oklahoma_B1250West Virginia49RoadWin17B1243.750.7
3611-17-2012Georgia Tech_ACC42Duke24HomeWin1815ACC35.250.2
3711-17-2012Clemson_ACC62North Carolina St48HomeWin1411ACC38.949.9
3811-17-2012Louisiana-Monroe_Sun42North Texas16HomeWin2623Sun26.949.9
3911-17-2012Mississippi_SEC35LSU41RoadLoss-6-7SEC55.548.5
4011-17-2012Oregon_P1214Stanford17HomeLoss-3-7P1255.548.5
4111-17-2012Alabama_SEC49Western Carolina0HomeWin4935fcs11.946.9
4211-17-2012Southern Cal_P1228UCLA38RoadLoss-10-7P1252.945.9
4311-14-2012Northern Illinois_MAC31Toledo24HomeWin77MAC38.445.4
4411-17-2012Sam Houston St_fcs28Texas A&M47RoadLoss-19-16SEC60.744.7
4511-17-2012Tulsa_CUS23Central Florida21HomeWin20CUS44.544.5
4611-17-2012South Carolina_SEC24Wofford7HomeWin1714fcs29.943.9
4711-17-2012Kent St_MAC31Bowling Green24RoadWin710MAC33.843.8
4811-17-2012Arkansas St_Sun41Troy34RoadWin710Sun33.243.2
4911-17-2012Florida_SEC23Jacksonville St0HomeWin2320fcs23.243.2
5011-17-2012Louisiana-Lafayette_Sun31Western Kentucky27HomeWin47Sun36.143.1
5111-17-2012Wisconsin_B1014Ohio State21HomeLoss-7-10B1052.842.8
5211-17-2012Central Florida_CUS21Tulsa23RoadLoss-20CUS42.742.7
5311-17-2012North Carolina St_ACC48Clemson62RoadLoss-14-11ACC53.442.4
5411-17-2012Louisiana Tech_WAC41Utah St48HomeLoss-7-10WAC51.641.6
5511-16-2012Florida Int'l_Sun34Florida Atlantic24RoadWin1013Sun28.141.1
5611-17-2012Virginia Tech_ACC30Boston College23RoadWin710ACC3141
5711-17-2012Wofford_fcs7South Carolina24RoadLoss-17-14SEC54.240.2
5811-17-2012Auburn_SEC51Alabama A&M7HomeWin4432.5fcs7.339.8
5911-17-2012Brigham Young_IND14San José St20RoadLoss-6-7WAC46.739.7
6011-14-2012Toledo_MAC24Northern Illinois31RoadLoss-7-7MAC46.139.1
6111-17-2012Michigan St_B1020Northwestern23HomeLoss-3-7B1045.738.7
6211-17-2012Eastern Michigan_MAC29Western Michigan23RoadWin69MAC2938
6311-17-2012Jacksonville St_fcs0Florida23RoadLoss-23-20SEC57.437.4
6411-17-2012Nevada_MWC31New Mexico24RoadWin710MWC27.437.4
6511-17-2012Navy_IND21Texas St-San Marcos10HomeWin118WAC28.636.6
6611-17-2012Utah_P1224Arizona34HomeLoss-10-13P1249.136.1
6711-17-2012Missouri_SEC27Syracuse31HomeLoss-4-7BgE42.135.1
6811-17-2012Wyoming_MWC28UNLV23RoadWin58MWC2735
6911-17-2012Central Michigan_MAC30Miami OH16HomeWin1411MAC2334
7011-17-2012Cincinnati_BgE3Rutgers10HomeLoss-7-10BgE43.533.5
7111-17-2012Purdue_B1020Illinois17RoadWin37B1026.433.4
7211-17-2012Western Kentucky_Sun27Louisiana-Lafayette31RoadLoss-4-7Sun39.932.9
7311-17-2012Middle Tennessee St_Sun20South Alabama12RoadWin811Sun21.932.9
7411-17-2012Illinois_B1017Purdue20HomeLoss-3-7B1038.431.4
7511-17-2012Georgia Southern_fcs14Georgia45RoadLoss-31-26SEC57.131.1
7611-17-2012Troy_Sun34Arkansas St41HomeLoss-7-10Sun40.230.2
7711-17-2012Bowling Green_MAC24Kent St31HomeLoss-7-10MAC39.929.9
7811-17-2012Western Carolina_fcs0Alabama49RoadLoss-49-35SEC64.829.8
7911-17-2012Minnesota_B1014Nebraska38RoadLoss-24-21B1050.529.5
8011-16-2012Air Force_MWC21Hawai`i7HomeWin1411MWC18.329.3
8111-17-2012Boston College_ACC23Virginia Tech30HomeLoss-7-10ACC39.329.3
8211-17-2012Houston_CUS41Marshall44RoadLoss-30CUS2929
8311-17-2012Iowa_B1017Michigan42RoadLoss-25-22B1050.928.9
8411-17-2012Marshall_CUS44Houston41HomeWin30CUS28.728.7
8511-17-2012Wake Forest_ACC0Notre Dame38RoadLoss-38-29.5IND57.928.4
8611-17-2012Maryland_ACC14Florida St41HomeLoss-27-27ACC55.328.3
8711-17-2012East Carolina_CUS28Tulane23RoadWin58CUS20.228.2
8811-17-2012Texas St-San Marcos_WAC10Navy21RoadLoss-11-8IND35.427.4
8911-17-2012Indiana_B1022Penn State45RoadLoss-23-20B1047.427.4
9011-17-2012Duke_ACC24Georgia Tech42RoadLoss-18-15ACC4227
9111-17-2012Kansas St_B1224Baylor52RoadLoss-28-24.5B1250.526
9211-17-2012Texas-San Antonio_WAC34Idaho27RoadWin710WAC15.925.9
9311-17-2012Texas Tech_B1221Oklahoma St59RoadLoss-38-29.5B1255.225.7
9411-17-2012Tennessee_SEC18Vanderbilt41RoadLoss-23-20SEC45.725.7
9511-17-2012UTEP_CUS34Southern Miss33RoadWin17CUS18.525.5
9611-17-2012New Mexico_MWC24Nevada31HomeLoss-7-10MWC35.425.4
9711-17-2012South Alabama_Sun12Middle Tennessee St20HomeLoss-8-11Sun36.225.2
9811-17-2012California_P1214Oregon St55RoadLoss-41-31P1255.924.9
9911-17-2012Tulane_CUS23East Carolina28HomeLoss-5-8CUS32.924.9
10011-17-2012Buffalo_MAC29Massachusetts19RoadWin1013MAC11.724.7
10111-17-2012Colorado St_MWC14Boise St42RoadLoss-28-24.5MWC46.622.1
10211-17-2012Southern Miss_CUS33UTEP34HomeLoss-1-7CUS28.321.3
10311-17-2012Washington St_P127Arizona St46RoadLoss-39-30P1251.221.2
10411-17-2012UNLV_MWC23Wyoming28HomeLoss-5-8MWC29.221.2
10511-17-2012Arkansas_SEC14Mississippi St45RoadLoss-31-26SEC46.920.9
10611-16-2012Hawai`i_MWC7Air Force21RoadLoss-14-11MWC31.520.5
10711-17-2012Kansas_B1223Iowa St51HomeLoss-28-27.5B1246.919.4
10811-15-2012Virginia_ACC13North Carolina37HomeLoss-24-25.5ACC44.519
10911-17-2012North Texas_Sun16Louisiana-Monroe42RoadLoss-26-23Sun4118
11011-14-2012Ohio U._MAC27Ball St52RoadLoss-25-22MAC38.816.8
11111-17-2012South Florida_BgE9Miami FL40RoadLoss-31-26ACC42.616.6
11211-17-2012Colorado_P123Washington38HomeLoss-35-31P1246.415.4
11311-16-2012Florida Atlantic_Sun24Florida Int'l34HomeLoss-10-13Sun27.714.7
11411-17-2012Miami OH_MAC16Central Michigan30RoadLoss-14-11MAC25.514.5
11511-17-2012Idaho_WAC27Texas-San Antonio34HomeLoss-7-10WAC23.713.7
11611-17-2012Massachusetts_MAC19Buffalo29HomeLoss-10-13MAC25.412.4
11711-17-2012SMU_CUS14Rice36RoadLoss-22-19CUS31.312.3
11811-17-2012Western Michigan_MAC23Eastern Michigan29HomeLoss-6-9MAC21.212.2
11911-17-2012Samford_fcs3Kentucky34RoadLoss-31-26SEC32.56.5
12011-17-2012Alabama A&M_fcs7Auburn51RoadLoss-44-32.5SEC35.22.7
12111-17-2012Army_IND32Temple63HomeLoss-31-29BgE312
12211-17-2012Alabama-Birmingham_CUS9Memphis46HomeLoss-37-32CUS24.4-7.6

Not surprisingly, Baylor and Stanford had two of the top three games of the weekend. The other great game came from Oklahoma State, who demolished a Texas Tech team that had played well most of the year.

References

References
1 No, we’re not getting into hypotheticals that involve Auburn beating Alabama.
2 In the interest of time, I called the Oregon State-Cal game at 55-14, the score early in the fourth quarter. The final score was 62-14.
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