Previously:
The Vikings have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL under head coach Mike Zimmer. That made some sense when Minnesota’s passing game wasn’t very good, but that’s no longer the case. This year, quarterback Kirk Cousins has been one of the most valuable passers in the NFL, leading the second most efficient passing attack through 13 weeks. But even in 2019, Minnesota has been pretty run-heavy… until week 13 against Seattle.
The graph below shows Minnesota’s Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) for each game this season. The Seahawks game is a pretty clear outlier: this was the most pass-happy game of the season, and it came during a neutral Game Script.
The table below shows the full week 13 Game Scripts data.
| Wk | Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | W/L | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | KAN | OAK | Boxscore | 40 | 9 | 31 | 18 | Win | 30 | 29 | 50.8% | 32 | 25 | 56.1% | |
| 13 | LAR | @ | ARI | Boxscore | 34 | 7 | 27 | 17.4 | Win | 46 | 30 | 60.5% | 40 | 21 | 65.6% |
| 13 | TAM | @ | JAX | Boxscore | 28 | 11 | 17 | 13.5 | Win | 37 | 31 | 54.4% | 46 | 17 | 73% |
| 13 | HOU | NWE | Boxscore | 28 | 22 | 6 | 8.5 | Win | 29 | 23 | 55.8% | 50 | 29 | 63.3% | |
| 13 | CIN | NYJ | Boxscore | 22 | 6 | 16 | 8.3 | Win | 38 | 26 | 59.4% | 52 | 17 | 75.4% | |
| 13 | NOR | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 26 | 18 | 8 | 7.9 | Win | 31 | 18 | 63.3% | 59 | 26 | 69.4% |
| 13 | GNB | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 31 | 13 | 18 | 7.7 | Win | 33 | 26 | 55.9% | 37 | 27 | 57.8% |
| 13 | DEN | LAC | Boxscore | 23 | 20 | 3 | 6.1 | Win | 28 | 25 | 52.8% | 32 | 29 | 52.5% | |
| 13 | BUF | @ | DAL | Boxscore | 26 | 15 | 11 | 4.3 | Win | 29 | 34 | 46% | 53 | 19 | 73.6% |
| 13 | PIT | CLE | Boxscore | 20 | 13 | 7 | 1.5 | Win | 22 | 32 | 40.7% | 39 | 24 | 61.9% | |
| 13 | BAL | SFO | Boxscore | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0.3 | Win | 24 | 38 | 38.7% | 23 | 29 | 44.2% | |
| 13 | SEA | MIN | Boxscore | 37 | 30 | 7 | -0.1 | Win | 33 | 43 | 43.4% | 38 | 14 | 73.1% | |
| 13 | WAS | @ | CAR | Boxscore | 29 | 21 | 8 | -1.8 | Win | 30 | 30 | 50% | 53 | 20 | 72.6% |
| 13 | TEN | @ | IND | Boxscore | 31 | 17 | 14 | -2.4 | Win | 28 | 30 | 48.3% | 43 | 24 | 64.2% |
| 13 | MIA | PHI | Boxscore | 37 | 31 | 6 | -3.6 | Win | 43 | 20 | 68.3% | 48 | 19 | 71.6% | |
| 13 | CHI | @ | DET | Boxscore | 24 | 20 | 4 | -3.8 | Win | 39 | 23 | 62.9% | 40 | 27 | 59.7% |
Perhaps less easy to understand is Carolina’s pass/run ratio in week 13. Quarterback Kyle Allen was very, very bad on Sunday, and the Panthers jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Washington. This should have been a game where Christian McCaffrey had a ton of carries, but he ended the day with just 44 yards on 14 rushes (he did have 13 targets in the passing game). It was just a coincidence, I am sure, but yesterday, Carolina fired long-time head coach Ron Rivera.
The Eagles also had a very heavy pass ratio against Miami, as Carson Wentz finished with 48 dropbacks against Miami against just 17 rushing plays. The Dolphins pass defense has had a lot of struggles this year, but that’s still pretty surprising — even in a losing effort. Miami has lost most games this year, of course, but keep in mind that the Eagles still had a positive Game Script and this was the first time all season an opponent passed on over 70% of plays against Miami.
What stands out to you?