Week 13 Game Scripts

by Chase Stuart on December 6, 2013

For the second straight week, an NFC West team produced a monster game script. This week, it was Seattle dominating New Orleans and taking control of the NFC. The Seahawks can clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs by simply winning the team’s final two home games, and Seattle appears to be (again) getting hot just in time for the postseason. Among passers with at least nine starts, Russell Wilson has the second best ANY/A average behind Peyton Manning, and the team should have a healthy Percy Harvin for the playoffs. In other words, it’s going to take an incredible effort for a team to knock off the Seahawks, who also rank #1 in DVOA.

Six teams in week 13 won with negative Game Scripts, with Matt Ryan leading the biggest comeback of the week. In surprising twists, the Patriots and Cowboys trailed early before toppling the Texans and Raiders, while the Vikings came from behind late to defeat the Bears. The Jaguars won in the final minute in one of the more exciting games of the week, while the Giants won (in somewhat controversial fashion) after falling behind 14-0 early in Washington. Below are the Game Scripts data from each game in week 13:

Winner	H/R	Loser	Boxscore	PF	PA	Margin	Game Script	Pass	Run	P/R Ratio	Op_P	Op_R	Opp_P/R Ratio
SEA		NOR	Boxscore	34	7	27	17.5	31	38	44.9%	39	17	69.6%
CAR		TAM	Boxscore	27	6	21	9.6	29	34	46%	26	20	56.5%
SFO		STL	Boxscore	23	13	10	9	32	30	51.6%	41	25	62.1%
DET		GNB	Boxscore	40	10	30	8.2	36	43	45.6%	26	14	65%
PHI		ARI	Boxscore	24	21	3	7.6	39	32	54.9%	46	22	67.6%
BAL		PIT	Boxscore	22	20	2	7.5	37	25	59.7%	44	17	72.1%
MIA	@	NYJ	Boxscore	23	3	20	7.2	44	36	55%	32	21	60.4%
CIN	@	SDG	Boxscore	17	10	7	2.6	23	37	38.3%	39	24	61.9%
IND		TEN	Boxscore	22	14	8	2	37	25	59.7%	38	36	51.4%
DEN	@	KAN	Boxscore	35	28	7	0.2	35	31	53%	42	25	62.7%
JAX	@	CLE	Boxscore	32	28	4	-1.7	43	29	59.7%	43	29	59.7%
NYG	@	WAS	Boxscore	24	17	7	-2.1	31	23	57.4%	36	31	53.7%
DAL		OAK	Boxscore	31	24	7	-2.4	34	30	53.1%	30	24	55.6%
NWE	@	HOU	Boxscore	34	31	3	-2.4	42	27	60.9%	31	28	52.5%
MIN		CHI	Boxscore	23	20	3	-2.8	46	39	54.1%	40	25	61.5%
ATL	@	BUF	Boxscore	34	31	3	-3.9	53	29	64.6%	32	30	51.6%

Three games saw the pass/run ratios deviate from the Game Scripts, with the most surprising one occurring in Dallas. Through 12 weeks, the Cowboys were the most pass-happy team in the league; then, despite post a Game Script of -2.4 points on Thanksgiving against the Raiders, Dallas passed on only 53.1% of the team’s plays. One explanation would be that the running game was working — DeMarco Murray and Lance Dunbar rushed 29 times for 145 yards and three touchdowns. The passing game wasn’t struggling — Tony Romo produced 208 net yards on 34 attempts — so I think I’d chalk this one up to just being an outlier and the Cowboys (correctly) thinking they could run all over Oakland.

Minnesota routinely winds up in this space, as a team that often trails and often runs more than its opponent. I think Adrian Peterson has something to do with that. Against the Bears he had over 200 rushing yards, and Minnesota had 246 rushing yards on 40 carries and 250 net passing yards on 46 pass plays.

The final game was the Colts-Titans battle, which was an ugly affair on all sides. Indianapolis posted a Game Script of 2.0, but in a close game the Colts(correctly) put the ball in the hands of Andrew Luck. So the pass/run ratios make sense here, although Tennessee called more pass plays than the numbers suggest, as Ryan Fitzpatrick had eight runs.

Game Scripts Standings

Let’s take a look at the Game Scripts standings now that we are at the three-quarters mark of the season. You might be surprised to see who is #2:

Rk	Team	Avg GS
1	DEN	6.35
2	SFO	6.33
3	SEA	5.45
4	CAR	5.43
5	KAN	2.73
6	CIN	2.60
7	PHI	2.48
8	DAL	2.28
9	NOR	2.19
10	GNB	1.37
11	NWE	0.98
12	DET	0.85
13	BAL	0.59
14	OAK	0.30
15	SDG	0.29
16	ARI	0.05
17	BUF	-0.15
18	MIA	-0.20
19	STL	-0.62
20	TAM	-0.69
21	TEN	-0.79
22	CHI	-1.24
23	CLE	-2.10
24	ATL	-2.42
25	PIT	-2.46
26	NYG	-2.54
27	MIN	-2.81
28	IND	-2.96
29	HOU	-3.16
30	WAS	-5.18
31	NYJ	-5.18
32	JAX	-7.82

San Francisco has six games this year where the team posted a Game Script of +9.0 or higher, including two games of over 18.0 points. The 49ers lost to Carolina and New Orleans in games where San Francisco posted positive Game Scripts. Had the 49ers taken care of business in those games, San Francisco would still control its own destiny for the #1 seed in the NFC.

Three AFC South teams occupy the bottom five of the list, including the eventual division champion Colts. Indianapolis has had seven games with negative Game Scripts, including a -11.0 in a win against Houston, a -18.7 in Arizona, and the worst Game Script of 2013, a -23.2 at home against the Rams.

Average Field Position

Team	Boxscore	# plays	Avg Yardline
CAR	Boxscore	63	54.9
DET	Boxscore	79	54.9
BAL	Boxscore	62	54.1
MIA	Boxscore	80	53.2
SFO	Boxscore	62	52.8
HOU	Boxscore	59	51.5
OAK	Boxscore	54	50.8
ATL	Boxscore	82	50.8
PIT	Boxscore	61	50.8
SEA	Boxscore	69	50.8
TEN	Boxscore	74	49.6
KAN	Boxscore	67	49.6
PHI	Boxscore	71	49.6
MIN	Boxscore	85	49.4
DAL	Boxscore	64	49.4
NWE	Boxscore	69	49.4
CIN	Boxscore	60	46.7
JAX	Boxscore	72	46.4
DEN	Boxscore	66	46
BUF	Boxscore	62	45.2
STL	Boxscore	66	45.1
WAS	Boxscore	67	44.8
CHI	Boxscore	65	43.8
CLE	Boxscore	72	43.5
SDG	Boxscore	63	42.6
IND	Boxscore	62	42.6
NYJ	Boxscore	53	42
NOR	Boxscore	56	41.8
NYG	Boxscore	54	41.3
TAM	Boxscore	46	40.8
ARI	Boxscore	68	37.2
GNB	Boxscore	40	32.4

The Chiefs defense allowed 35 points to the Broncos on Sunday. Is that because the Broncos were the beneficiaries of good field position? Not at all. Denver’s five touchdown drives covered 416 yards, an average of 83 yards per scoring drive.

And that Matt Flynn offense was every bit as ugly as you remember.

Tagged as: Average Field Position, Game Scripts

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