I didn’t publish my college football SRS ratings last week, but with the conclusion of yesterday’s Army-Navy game, the college football regular season is over. But before we turn our attention to the Bowls, here is a look at the final regular season SRS ratings.
Rk | Team | Conf | Conf Rk | G | MOV | SOS | SRS | REC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | P12 | 1 | 12 | 23.7 | 41.4 | 65.1 | 11-1 |
2 | Alabama | SEC | 1 | 13 | 22.8 | 41.3 | 64.1 | 12-1 |
3 | Texas A&M | SEC | 2 | 12 | 18.2 | 42.4 | 60.6 | 10-2 |
4 | Kansas St | B12 | 1 | 12 | 16.5 | 43.2 | 59.7 | 11-1 |
5 | Florida | SEC | 3 | 12 | 13.1 | 44.4 | 57.5 | 11-1 |
6 | Notre Dame | IND | -- | 12 | 14.7 | 42.8 | 57.5 | 12-0 |
7 | Georgia | SEC | 4 | 13 | 15.8 | 41.5 | 57.3 | 11-2 |
8 | Oklahoma | B12 | 2 | 12 | 13.5 | 43.7 | 57.3 | 10-2 |
9 | Stanford | P12 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 45.4 | 55.4 | 11-2 |
10 | South Carolina | SEC | 5 | 12 | 12.5 | 41.9 | 54.4 | 10-2 |
11 | LSU | SEC | 6 | 12 | 11.4 | 42.8 | 54.1 | 10-2 |
12 | Oregon St | P12 | 3 | 12 | 9.6 | 44 | 53.6 | 9-3 |
13 | Oklahoma St | B12 | 3 | 12 | 11.1 | 42.5 | 53.6 | 7-5 |
14 | Southern Cal | P12 | 4 | 12 | 7.9 | 44.5 | 52.4 | 7-5 |
15 | Florida St | ACC | 1 | 13 | 19.3 | 32.6 | 52 | 11-2 |
16 | Ohio State | B10 | 1 | 12 | 13.7 | 38.3 | 51.9 | 12-0 |
17 | Baylor | B12 | 4 | 12 | 5.1 | 45.9 | 51 | 7-5 |
18 | Texas | B12 | 5 | 12 | 6.1 | 44.5 | 50.6 | 8-4 |
19 | Wisconsin | B10 | 2 | 13 | 9.9 | 40.7 | 50.6 | 8-5 |
20 | Clemson | ACC | 2 | 12 | 15.1 | 35.5 | 50.6 | 10-2 |
21 | Arizona St | P12 | 5 | 12 | 9.2 | 41.3 | 50.5 | 7-5 |
22 | UCLA | P12 | 6 | 13 | 7.9 | 42.6 | 50.5 | 9-4 |
23 | Utah St | WAC | 1 | 12 | 17.7 | 32.1 | 49.8 | 10-2 |
24 | Michigan | B10 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 40.3 | 49.2 | 8-4 |
25 | Fresno St | MWC | 1 | 12 | 16 | 33.2 | 49.2 | 9-3 |
26 | Brigham Young | IND | -- | 12 | 11.7 | 36.1 | 47.8 | 7-5 |
27 | Arizona | P12 | 7 | 12 | 2.4 | 44.6 | 47 | 7-5 |
28 | Nebraska | B10 | 4 | 13 | 7.3 | 39.5 | 46.9 | 10-3 |
29 | Texas Tech | B12 | 6 | 12 | 4.4 | 42.2 | 46.6 | 7-5 |
30 | TCU | B12 | 7 | 12 | 4.9 | 41.4 | 46.4 | 7-5 |
31 | Penn State | B10 | 5 | 12 | 8.7 | 37.5 | 46.2 | 8-4 |
32 | San José St | WAC | 2 | 12 | 12.7 | 33.4 | 46.1 | 10-2 |
33 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 7 | 12 | 9.3 | 36.6 | 45.9 | 8-4 |
34 | West Virginia | B12 | 8 | 12 | 2.3 | 43.5 | 45.8 | 7-5 |
35 | Boise St | MWC | 2 | 12 | 13.8 | 31.8 | 45.7 | 10-2 |
36 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 1 | 13 | 18.5 | 27 | 45.5 | 12-1 |
37 | Northwestern | B10 | 6 | 12 | 7.6 | 37.4 | 45 | 9-3 |
38 | Iowa St | B12 | 9 | 12 | 0.8 | 44.1 | 44.9 | 6-6 |
39 | Mississippi | SEC | 8 | 12 | 1.2 | 43.7 | 44.9 | 6-6 |
40 | Mississippi St | SEC | 9 | 12 | 6 | 38.3 | 44.3 | 8-4 |
41 | Michigan St | B10 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 41.3 | 44.3 | 6-6 |
42 | Washington | P12 | 8 | 12 | 0.5 | 43.6 | 44.1 | 7-5 |
43 | Cincinnati | BgE | 1 | 12 | 12.3 | 31.2 | 43.5 | 9-3 |
44 | Missouri | SEC | 10 | 12 | -3.3 | 46.7 | 43.4 | 5-7 |
45 | Louisiana Tech | WAC | 3 | 12 | 11.8 | 31.3 | 43.1 | 9-3 |
46 | Central Florida | CUS | 1 | 13 | 11.4 | 31.5 | 42.9 | 9-4 |
47 | San Diego St | MWC | 3 | 12 | 9.8 | 32.6 | 42.4 | 9-3 |
48 | North Carolina | ACC | 3 | 12 | 11 | 31.3 | 42.4 | 8-4 |
49 | Utah | P12 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 42 | 41.9 | 5-7 |
50 | Syracuse | BgE | 2 | 12 | 3.5 | 38 | 41.5 | 7-5 |
51 | Tulsa | CUS | 2 | 13 | 9.3 | 32 | 41.3 | 10-3 |
52 | Arkansas St | Sun | 1 | 12 | 9.7 | 31.4 | 41.1 | 9-3 |
53 | Miami FL | ACC | 4 | 12 | 1.6 | 39.3 | 40.9 | 7-5 |
54 | Tennessee | SEC | 11 | 12 | -0.4 | 40.7 | 40.4 | 5-7 |
55 | Pittsburgh | BgE | 3 | 12 | 6.3 | 33.8 | 40.1 | 6-6 |
56 | Louisville | BgE | 4 | 12 | 7.1 | 32.9 | 40 | 10-2 |
57 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 5 | 13 | 2.9 | 36.9 | 39.8 | 6-7 |
58 | Rutgers | BgE | 5 | 12 | 8.1 | 31.6 | 39.7 | 9-3 |
59 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun | 2 | 12 | 7.2 | 32.2 | 39.4 | 8-4 |
60 | Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun | 3 | 12 | 7.3 | 32 | 39.3 | 8-4 |
61 | Kent St | MAC | 2 | 13 | 10.1 | 29.2 | 39.3 | 11-2 |
62 | Purdue | B10 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 38.4 | 38.3 | 6-6 |
63 | Arkansas | SEC | 12 | 12 | -5.9 | 44.1 | 38.2 | 4-8 |
64 | North Carolina St | ACC | 6 | 12 | 3.2 | 34.5 | 37.7 | 7-5 |
65 | California | P12 | 10 | 12 | -9.1 | 46.4 | 37.3 | 3-9 |
66 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 7 | 12 | 0.8 | 36.4 | 37.2 | 6-6 |
67 | Ball St | MAC | 3 | 12 | 4.9 | 31.8 | 36.7 | 9-3 |
68 | Iowa | B10 | 9 | 12 | -4 | 40.5 | 36.5 | 4-8 |
69 | Toledo | MAC | 4 | 12 | 5.5 | 30.9 | 36.4 | 9-3 |
70 | SMU | CUS | 3 | 12 | 2 | 34.1 | 36 | 6-6 |
71 | Minnesota | B10 | 10 | 12 | -2.7 | 37.5 | 34.8 | 6-6 |
72 | Nevada | MWC | 4 | 12 | 3.3 | 31.2 | 34.4 | 7-5 |
73 | Western Kentucky | Sun | 4 | 12 | 2.7 | 31.3 | 34 | 7-5 |
74 | Navy | IND | -- | 12 | 2.7 | 31.2 | 33.9 | 8-4 |
75 | Auburn | SEC | 13 | 12 | -9.6 | 43.3 | 33.6 | 3-9 |
76 | Duke | ACC | 8 | 12 | -3 | 36.2 | 33.3 | 6-6 |
77 | Bowling Green | MAC | 5 | 12 | 7.6 | 25.5 | 33.1 | 8-4 |
78 | Indiana | B10 | 11 | 12 | -4.3 | 37.3 | 33 | 4-8 |
79 | Middle Tennessee St | Sun | 5 | 12 | 0.5 | 31.8 | 32.2 | 8-4 |
80 | Troy | Sun | 6 | 12 | -0.3 | 32.3 | 32 | 5-7 |
81 | East Carolina | CUS | 4 | 12 | 1.4 | 30.5 | 31.9 | 8-4 |
82 | Washington St | P12 | 11 | 12 | -11.8 | 43.5 | 31.7 | 3-9 |
83 | Virginia | ACC | 9 | 12 | -6.1 | 37.3 | 31.2 | 4-8 |
84 | Kansas | B12 | 10 | 12 | -16.1 | 47.1 | 31.1 | 1-11 |
85 | South Florida | BgE | 6 | 12 | -7 | 37.9 | 31 | 3-9 |
86 | Kentucky | SEC | 14 | 12 | -12.4 | 43.3 | 31 | 2-10 |
87 | Rice | CUS | 5 | 12 | 0.2 | 30.6 | 30.7 | 6-6 |
88 | Connecticut | BgE | 7 | 12 | -2.5 | 32.8 | 30.3 | 5-7 |
89 | Ohio U. | MAC | 6 | 12 | 5.2 | 24.7 | 29.9 | 8-4 |
90 | Air Force | MWC | 5 | 12 | 0.4 | 29.4 | 29.8 | 6-6 |
91 | Maryland | ACC | 10 | 12 | -6.4 | 35.9 | 29.4 | 4-8 |
92 | Temple | BgE | 8 | 11 | -6.7 | 35.5 | 28.8 | 4-7 |
93 | Boston College | ACC | 11 | 12 | -9.4 | 38.2 | 28.8 | 2-10 |
94 | Houston | CUS | 6 | 12 | -3.5 | 32 | 28.5 | 5-7 |
95 | Marshall | CUS | 7 | 12 | -2.4 | 30.3 | 27.9 | 5-7 |
96 | Texas St-San Marcos | WAC | 4 | 12 | -4 | 31.9 | 27.9 | 4-8 |
97 | Wyoming | MWC | 6 | 12 | -6.8 | 34.4 | 27.6 | 4-8 |
98 | Western Michigan | MAC | 7 | 12 | -1.8 | 29.2 | 27.4 | 4-8 |
99 | Colorado St | MWC | 7 | 12 | -8.6 | 35.5 | 26.9 | 4-8 |
100 | UTEP | CUS | 8 | 12 | -7.8 | 34.4 | 26.6 | 3-9 |
101 | Florida Int'l | Sun | 7 | 12 | -6.8 | 33.3 | 26.5 | 3-9 |
102 | Florida Atlantic | Sun | 8 | 12 | -8.7 | 35.1 | 26.4 | 3-9 |
103 | North Texas | Sun | 9 | 12 | -6.3 | 32.7 | 26.4 | 4-8 |
104 | New Mexico | MWC | 8 | 13 | -4.8 | 30.5 | 25.6 | 4-9 |
105 | Wake Forest | ACC | 12 | 12 | -11.5 | 37.1 | 25.6 | 5-7 |
106 | Central Michigan | MAC | 8 | 12 | -3.5 | 28.6 | 25.1 | 6-6 |
107 | Illinois | B10 | 12 | 12 | -14.7 | 39.3 | 24.6 | 2-10 |
108 | Buffalo | MAC | 9 | 12 | -7 | 31.1 | 24.1 | 4-8 |
109 | Memphis | CUS | 9 | 12 | -6 | 29.9 | 23.9 | 4-8 |
110 | Texas-San Antonio | WAC | 5 | 12 | 2.6 | 21 | 23.5 | 8-4 |
111 | Alabama-Birmingham | CUS | 10 | 12 | -8.6 | 32 | 23.4 | 3-9 |
112 | UNLV | MWC | 9 | 13 | -10.6 | 33.8 | 23.2 | 2-11 |
113 | Miami OH | MAC | 10 | 12 | -9.8 | 32.3 | 22.5 | 4-8 |
114 | Colorado | P12 | 12 | 12 | -22.9 | 44.6 | 21.8 | 1-11 |
115 | Hawai`i | MWC | 10 | 12 | -12.3 | 33.9 | 21.6 | 3-9 |
116 | Army | IND | -- | 12 | -11.6 | 33.1 | 21.5 | 2-10 |
117 | South Alabama | Sun | 10 | 13 | -10.8 | 30.5 | 19.6 | 2-11 |
118 | Akron | MAC | 11 | 12 | -10 | 29.4 | 19.4 | 1-11 |
119 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | 12 | 12 | -14.6 | 34 | 19.4 | 2-10 |
120 | Tulane | CUS | 11 | 12 | -15.5 | 33.8 | 18.3 | 2-10 |
121 | Southern Miss | CUS | 12 | 12 | -17.8 | 34.2 | 16.4 | 0-12 |
122 | Idaho | WAC | 6 | 12 | -21.6 | 36.7 | 15.1 | 1-11 |
123 | New Mexico St | WAC | 7 | 12 | -18.5 | 32.5 | 13.9 | 1-11 |
124 | Massachusetts | MAC | 13 | 12 | -22.3 | 32.1 | 9.9 | 1-11 |
I’ve also updated the NCAA Games page, which displays every game in major college football this season.
The table below lists the Bowl matchups along with some SRS data squeezed in: the last four columns show the SRS rating of the favorite and the underdog, along with the difference between the two ratings (i.e., a projected point spread) and the average of the two ratings (essentially a ranking of how good the game is).
Date | Favorite | Underdog | Location | Sponsor/FKA | Bowl | F_SRS | U_SRS | Spread | Avg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dec-15 | Arizona | Nevada | Albuquerque NM | Gildan | New Mexico | 47 | 34.4 | 12.6 | 40.7 |
Dec-15 | Utah St | Toledo | Boise ID | (fka Humanitarian) | Famous Idaho Potato | 49.8 | 36.4 | 13.4 | 43.1 |
Dec-20 | Brigham Young | San Diego St | San Diego CA | S.D. County Credit Union | Poinsettia | 47.8 | 42.4 | 5.4 | 45.1 |
Dec-21 | Central Florida | Ball St | St Petersburg FL | Beef 'O' Brady's | St. Petersburg | 42.9 | 36.7 | 6.2 | 39.8 |
Dec-22 | Boise St | Washington | Las Vegas NV | MAACO | Las Vegas | 45.7 | 44.1 | 1.6 | 44.9 |
Dec-22 | Louisiana-Lafayette | East Carolina | New Orleans LA | R+L Carriers | New Orleans | 39.3 | 31.9 | 7.5 | 35.6 |
Dec-24 | Fresno St | SMU | Honolulu HI | Sheraton | Hawaii | 49.2 | 36 | 13.2 | 42.6 |
Dec-26 | Western Kentucky | Central Michigan | Detroit MI | (fka Motor City) | Little Caesars Pizza | 34 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 29.5 |
Dec-27 | San José St | Bowling Green | Washington DC | Northrop Grumman | Military Bowl | 46.1 | 33.1 | 13 | 39.6 |
Dec-27 | Cincinnati | Duke | Charlotte NC | (fka Meineke Car Care) | Belk | 43.5 | 33.3 | 10.2 | 38.4 |
Dec-27 | Louisiana-Monroe | Ohio U. | Shreveport LA | AdvoCare V100 | Independence | 39.4 | 29.9 | 9.5 | 34.6 |
Dec-27 | Baylor | UCLA | San Diego CA | Bridgepoint Education | Holiday | 51 | 50.5 | 0.5 | 50.7 |
Dec-28 | Texas Tech | Minnesota | Houston TX | Meineke Car Care | Texas | 46.6 | 34.8 | 11.8 | 40.7 |
Dec-28 | Rutgers | Virginia Tech | Orlando FL | (fka Champs Sports) | Russell Athletic | 39.7 | 37.2 | 2.5 | 38.5 |
Dec-29 | Arizona St | Navy | San Francisco CA | (fka Emerald) | Kraft Fight Hunger | 50.5 | 33.9 | 16.6 | 42.2 |
Dec-29 | Rice | Air Force | Fort Worth TX | Bell Helicopter | Armed Forces | 30.7 | 29.8 | 1 | 30.3 |
Dec-29 | West Virginia | Syracuse | Bronx NY | New Era | Pinstripe | 45.8 | 41.5 | 4.2 | 43.6 |
Dec-29 | TCU | Michigan St | Tempe AZ | (fka Insight) | Buffalo Wild Wings | 46.4 | 44.3 | 2.1 | 45.3 |
Dec-29 | Oregon St | Texas | San Antonio TX | Valero | Alamo | 53.6 | 50.6 | 3 | 52.1 |
Dec-31 | LSU | Clemson | Atlanta GA | (fka Peach) | Chick-fil-A | 54.1 | 50.6 | 3.5 | 52.4 |
Dec-31 | Southern Cal | Georgia Tech | El Paso TX | Hyundai | Sun | 52.4 | 39.8 | 12.6 | 46.1 |
Dec-31 | Iowa St | Tulsa | Memphis TN | AutoZone | Liberty | 44.9 | 41.3 | 3.7 | 43.1 |
Dec-31 | Vanderbilt | North Carolina St | Nashville TN | Franklin American Mortgage | Music City | 45.9 | 37.7 | 8.2 | 41.8 |
Jan-01 | Florida St | Northern Illinois | Miami FL | Discover | Orange | 52 | 45.5 | 6.5 | 48.7 |
Jan-01 | Georgia | Nebraska | Orlando FL | (fka Citrus) | Capital One | 57.3 | 46.9 | 10.4 | 52.1 |
Jan-01 | Northwestern | Mississippi St | Jacksonville FL | TaxSlayer.com | Gator | 45 | 44.3 | 0.7 | 44.7 |
Jan-01 | Oklahoma St | Purdue | Dallas TX | (at old Cotton Bowl) | Heart of Dallas | 53.6 | 38.3 | 15.3 | 45.9 |
Jan-01 | South Carolina | Michigan | Tampa FL | Outback | 54.4 | 49.2 | 5.2 | 51.8 | |
Jan-01 | Stanford | Wisconsin | Pasadena CA | Vizio | Rose Bowl | 55.4 | 50.6 | 4.8 | 53 |
Jan-02 | Florida | Louisville | New Orleans LA | Allstate | Sugar | 57.5 | 40 | 17.5 | 48.8 |
Jan-03 | Oregon | Kansas St | Glendale AZ | Tostitos | Fiesta | 65.1 | 59.7 | 5.4 | 62.4 |
Jan-04 | Texas A&M | Oklahoma | Arlington TX | AT&T | Cotton | 60.6 | 57.3 | 3.3 | 58.9 |
Jan-05 | Mississippi | Pittsburgh | Birmingham AL | (fka PapaJohns.com) | BBVA Compass | 44.9 | 40.1 | 4.8 | 42.5 |
Jan-06 | Arkansas St | Kent St | Mobile AL | (fka GMAC) | GoDaddy.com | 41.1 | 39.3 | 1.8 | 40.2 |
Jan-07 | Alabama | Notre Dame | Miami FL | Discover | BCS National Championship | 64.1 | 57.5 | 6.6 | 60.8 |
The SRS actually puts the Fiesta Bowl as the best Bowl game this year; of course, Oregon-Kansas State was the expected national championship game just four weeks ago. Using the SRS data, let’s preview some of the games:
Best non-BCS game: Cotton Bowl (Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma)
This one’s easy — the Sooners and Aggies are both top-eight teams, making this the third best game of the Bowl season.
Runners-up: The Chick-fil-A Bowl features a ton of future NFL talent between LSU and Clemson. The battle of the Tigers gives Clemson a chance to redeem itself after losing to another SEC team, South Carolina, in their last game of the season. The Alamo Bowl may not feature sexy teams, but Oregon State and Texas faced two of the toughest schedules in college football and came through with a combined 17-7 record. Neither team had a signature win in 2012, but in San Antonio one of these teams will build momentum towards 2013.
Biggest mismatch: Sugar Bowl (Florida vs. Louisville)
Much was made about Northern Illinois making the BCS, but the Huskies are not a bad team. And more importantly, they look to be a much better team than Louisville, who will be in the Sugar Bowl by virtue of winning the Big East. But if you’re looking for a blowout in a BCS game, keep your eye on the Sugar Bowl, not the Orange Bowl.
Runners-up: Navy looks to be overmatched against Arizona State in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl; the Midshipmen simply aren’t very good, and rode an easy schedule with wins VMI, Air Force, Central Michigan, Indiana, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Texas State and Army to a Bowl game. The Heart of Dallas Bowl doesn’t look to be any more competitive. Oklahoma State isn’t as good as they were in 2011, but Mike Gundy’s squad is more than good enough to take care of Purdue. The Boilmakers don’t have the offense to keep up with a Cowboys team that ranks in the top five in both points and yards. Purdue fired head coach Danny Hope after the season; his assistants will coach the game, while incoming head coach Darrell Hazell will coach Kent State in the prestigious GoDaddy.com Bowl before heading to West Lafayette.
Worst game: Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Western Kentucky-Central Michigan)
If you have to miss a Bowl game, this is it. WKU’s head coach Willie Taggart is headed to the University of South Florida while Central Michigan comes in as the worst team to make a Bowl. The Chippewas went 6-6 against a bad schedule — which included a win over an FCS school and SRS #124 Massachusetts — and won two other games by a combined four points.
Runners-up: The Armed Forces Bowl is low on talent with Rice and Air Force but it should at least be competitive. Meanwhile, the state Louisiana struck out this season. In Shreveport, in the Independence Bowl, Louisiana-Monroe (SRS #59) comes in as a heavy favorite over Ohio (SRS #89). We’ve already hit on how the Sugar Bowl looks to be a snoozefest; the other game in New Orleans, the R+L Carriers Bowl, doesn’t look much better. Louisiana-Lafayette, the third best team in the Sun Belt, against East Carolina, the fourth best team in Conference USA, doesn’t pack much punch. On the bright side, New Orleans does get the Super Bowl in a couple of months.
Closest game: Holiday Bowl (Baylor vs. UCLA)
Two games after Christmas, fans of offense get the best present of the year. Let’s not forget that with Robert Griffin III, Baylor beat Washington 67-56 in the Alamo Bowl; the 123 points were the most ever scored in regulation in a Bowl game. Baylor is one of just two teams this season to allow over 500 yards a game and the Bears led the nation in total yards, while UCLA is quite capable of getting into a shootout. The Bruins scored at least 36 points in 8 different games, but also allowed 35 points on four different occasions.
Runners-up: The Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl may not bring a lot of juice with it, but Northwestern and Mississippi State are two evenly-matched and well-coached teams. The Wildcats have won 10 games just twice in their history — in 1903 and 1995 — giving them a chance to make history in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs are looking for their second nine-win season in three years after hitting the 9-win mark just twice between 1977 and 2009.