Previously:
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott arrived in Dallas in 2016. Since then, the Cowboys have always been a run-heavy team, and Prescott has alternated between being a very efficient passer on minimal volume and an inconsistent quarterback who has hamstrung the offense. Dallas rarely relies on Prescott to throw often unless the game gets out of hand. The most pass-happy game for Dallas in the last three seasons was a 42-17 blowout loss to Denver, when the Cowboys passed on 79% of plays. And Dallas lost by double digits in all of the other pass-happy (for Dallas) games of the Prescott ere, including against Seattle, Tennessee, and Indianapolis this year, and in Atlanta last year.
That is, until week 17. The Cowboys were tied with the Giants after the first quarter, led by 7 at halftime, by 3 after 3 quarters, and won by 1 point. If you average the points differential at the end of each quarter — here, 0, 7, 3, 1 — you get a result of Dallas +2.8 points. And the Cowboys passed on 69% of all offensive plays.
That number is the second highest in any game of the last 3 years for the Cowboys, but it’s even more remarkable when you consider the context. Until this game, the most often Dallas had passed in a game where they had a positive average points differential after each quarter was 62%, against the Giants (in a game Dallas lost) in 2016.
The graph below shows all 48 games in the Prescott era. On the Y-Axis is the percentage of plays in which the Cowboys passed (plotted from 30% to 90%, since on average teams pass around 60% of the time). On the X-Axis is the average points differential after each quarter for that game. I have put in a gray diamond with a blue outline the Giants week 17, 2018 game, which stands out as a pretty clear outlier:
Against the Giants, Prescott threw 44 times for 387 yards with 4 TDs; all three are career highs for Prescott in a game the Cowboys won in regulation. As Dallas enters the postseason, this is the best sign yet that Prescott is capable of shouldering a larger workload. This was a meaningless game for the Cowboys — indeed, Elliott sat, which is of course a notable factor in the pass-heavy approach — but I commend the Cowboys for giving Prescott a rare opportunity to shine. The full week 17 Game Scripts below:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAN | OAK | Boxscore | 35 | 3 | 32 | 19.7 | 27 | 27 | 50% | 36 | 29 | 55.4% | |
| LAR | SFO | Boxscore | 48 | 32 | 16 | 19.3 | 29 | 42 | 40.8% | 36 | 22 | 62.1% | |
| NWE | NYJ | Boxscore | 38 | 3 | 35 | 17.2 | 34 | 30 | 53.1% | 32 | 23 | 58.2% | |
| CAR | @ | NOR | Boxscore | 33 | 14 | 19 | 16.7 | 31 | 37 | 45.6% | 24 | 27 | 47.1% |
| DET | @ | GNB | Boxscore | 31 | 0 | 31 | 15.3 | 34 | 38 | 47.2% | 43 | 13 | 76.8% |
| BUF | MIA | Boxscore | 42 | 17 | 25 | 12 | 27 | 33 | 45% | 36 | 25 | 59% | |
| HOU | JAX | Boxscore | 20 | 3 | 17 | 9.4 | 41 | 33 | 55.4% | 31 | 16 | 66% | |
| PHI | @ | WAS | Boxscore | 24 | 0 | 24 | 8.3 | 37 | 34 | 52.1% | 31 | 12 | 72.1% |
| CHI | @ | MIN | Boxscore | 24 | 10 | 14 | 7.9 | 26 | 37 | 41.3% | 37 | 15 | 71.2% |
| IND | @ | TEN | Boxscore | 33 | 17 | 16 | 7.7 | 36 | 36 | 50% | 29 | 16 | 64.4% |
| BAL | CLE | Boxscore | 26 | 24 | 2 | 6.7 | 26 | 47 | 35.6% | 42 | 14 | 75% | |
| LAC | @ | DEN | Boxscore | 23 | 9 | 14 | 4.9 | 25 | 30 | 45.5% | 49 | 25 | 66.2% |
| DAL | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 36 | 35 | 1 | 2.7 | 48 | 22 | 68.6% | 42 | 25 | 62.7% |
| SEA | ARI | Boxscore | 27 | 24 | 3 | 2.5 | 27 | 34 | 44.3% | 40 | 24 | 62.5% | |
| PIT | CIN | Boxscore | 16 | 13 | 3 | -2.7 | 46 | 20 | 69.7% | 28 | 18 | 60.9% | |
| ATL | @ | TAM | Boxscore | 34 | 32 | 2 | -3.5 | 46 | 30 | 60.5% | 36 | 20 | 64.3% |
Dallas was the most pass-happy team of week 17. On the other hand, the Raiders, Saints, and of course Ravens stood out as your most run-heavy teams. Oakland was blown out by the Chiefs and basically gave up: the Raiders lost by 32 points and called 29 running plays (with zero quarterback runs). That is prime give-up territory, and we can comfortably say that about any team that lands in the 28/28 club — 28+ runs despite losing by 28+ points.
New Orleans was even worse: the Saints passed on just 47% of their plays despite getting blown out by the Panthers. This was a weird game: New Orleans had already clinched the #1 seed and was resting starters, but Carolina had lost 7 straight games and was playing its third string quarterback. A Panthers blowout was genuinely surprising — the Saints were favored by 8 points! — and New Orleans sleepwalked through this game.
And then there are the Ravens, the league’s most run-heavy team under Lamar Jackson. Baltimore rushed for 296 yards against Cleveland in week 17, the second-most by any team in 2018. Jackson became the team’s starting quarterback in the 10th game of the season; over Baltimore’s final 7 games, the Ravens have rushed for 1,607 yards. The Seahawks are a distant second with 1,190 rushing yards, but even that obscures how dominant Baltimore has been on the ground. Since the adoption of the 16-game schedule, no team has ever rushed for more yards in games 10 through 16; prior to this season, the 1984 Rams had the most rushing yards in a team’s final 7 games at 1,536 yards.