≡ Menu

Marshall wonders why the Bears Game Script was so poor.

Marshall wonders why the Bears Game Script was so poor.

It was a week for comebacks in the NFL. Chicago trailed San Francisco 17-0 with just 30 seconds left in the first half, but won 28-20. With 20 minutes left, the Eagles trailed the Colts 20-6, but came back to win 30-27. Midway through the 2nd quarter, the Jets led the Packers 21-3, but Green Bay came back to win, 31-24.

All three games produced Game Scripts by the winning team of between -4 and -7 points. Game Scripts, regular readers know, measure the average points differential over the course of the entire game. Week 2 brought a pair of games with very large game scripts, with Oakland (Game Script of -15.9) and Jacksonville (-15.3) failing to look competitive in losses to houston and Washington, respectively. Minnesota (-11.7) wasn’t much better. Not surprisingly, the Raiders, Jaguars, and Vikings all passed significantly more often than their opponents.

That was the main theme of week 2: in the Broncos/Chiefs game, the two teams each passed on 58.7% of their plays. [1]Technically, Denver passed on 58.70% of its plays, while Kansas City passed on 58.67%. In all other 15 games, the team that had the higher pass/run ratio had a negative Game Script. That’s an incredibly powerful reminder that the way a game unfolds is much more relevant to determining each team’s pass/run ratio than the identity of the teams.

WinnerH/RLoserBoxscorePFPAMarginGame ScriptPassRunP/R RatioOp_POp_ROpp_P/R Ratio
HOU@OAKBoxscore30141615.9194629.2%421771.2%
WASJAXBoxscore41103115.3394148.8%381079.2%
NWE@MINBoxscore3072311.7233738.3%421968.9%
BUFMIABoxscore2910198.8263344.1%532171.6%
DAL@TENBoxscore2610168.5334343.4%361373.5%
CINATLBoxscore2410148.5244534.8%461970.8%
BALPITBoxscore266207.8293644.6%391868.4%
DENKANBoxscore241776.8271958.7%443158.7%
ARI@NYGBoxscore2514115.4332854.1%412760.3%
SDGSEABoxscore302194.2383552.1%271367.5%
CLENORBoxscore262424.1423058.3%422562.7%
CARDETBoxscore247173.9392461.9%521874.3%
STL@TAMBoxscore19172-0.8312852.5%223042.3%
GNBNYJBoxscore31247-4.4462168.7%343847.2%
PHI@INDBoxscore30273-4.8372856.9%343847.2%
CHI@SFOBoxscore28208-6.6351668.6%382758.5%
  • Using Game Scripts instead of just points differential is a better way to quickly identify how a game unfolded. The Texans had a massive Game Script, but only won by 16. That’s because while Houston led 27-0 entering the 4th quarter, the Raiders outscored the Texans 14-3 in the final frame. And for the second week in a row, James Jones caught a touchdown pass in the final 90 seconds of the game. He’s also the only player to do that so far this season.
  • Technically, Carolina beat Detroit by more points than Houston beat Oakland. But the Panthers game had a Game Script of only 3.9, as it was a much more competitive contest. The Lions led 7-6 in the third quarter, and Detroit was trailing only 13-6 as late as 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter.
  • What games saw unusual pass/rush ratios despite the Game Script? You won’t be surprised to see that the Broncos and Jets were involved.
  • Denver and Kansas City had the same pass/run ratio despite the Broncos largely dominating that game (although the Chiefs made it very close at the end). Of course, having Peyton Manning tends to make a team install a pass-happy plan. While passing on 58.7% of plays may not seem pass-happy, it certainly is for a team with an average lead of a touchdown throughout the game.
  • Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Quinton Coples, and Damon Harrison is football speak for “Don’t run on the Jets.” On Green Bay’s first 25 plays of the game, Aaron Rodgers passed or was sacked 19 times; on two more plays, he scrambled, which means Green Bay called a pass play on 84% of the team’s first 25 plays. Only a fourth quarter with more called runs than passes (which includes two kneeldowns) prevented the Packers’ pass ratio from finishing well north of 70% for the game.
  • In week 1, no team passed on fewer than 40% of plays; three teams dipped below that mark in week 2, including the Texans, who passed on just 29% of all plays. In fact, no team during the 2013 regular season passed on fewer than 30% of its plays. In the playoffs, San Diego managed to come in just under thirty percent in the victory in Cincinnati. Prior to the Houston-Oakland game, the last team to throw on fewer than 30% of its plays in a regular season game was the Bills in a home victory over Jacksonville in week 13 of the 2012 season. Buffalo’s quarterback that day? Ryan Fitzpatrick.

What stands out to you from the week 2 Game Scripts data? And be sure to check out Football Perspective alumnus Neil Paine’s new article, looking at the predictive ability of Game Scripts data.

References

References
1 Technically, Denver passed on 58.70% of its plays, while Kansas City passed on 58.67%.
{ 2 comments }