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Week 2 (2018) Game Scripts: Los Angeles Domination

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In week 2, the two best Game Scripts belonged to the two Los Angeles. The Rams blanked the Cardinals 34-0 in the most lopsided game of the week. Arizona was never competitive, and Los Angeles outgained Arizona 432-137, and won the first down battle 24-5. Buffalo didn’t fare much better against the Chargers, falling behind 21-3 after 20 minutes, and trailing by 15+ points for all of the second half until the final minute. This is a good example of how Game Script can tell a more accurate story of a game than the final score: both of these games were blowouts, but the Chargers won by “only” 11 points.

The Titans were the league’s most run-heavy team of the week. Blaine Gabbert threw just 20 passes (he had a sack, and two non-QBs threw a pass for Tennessee), an extremely low number given that Tennessee actually trailed in the 4th quarter of this game. But the Titans were happy to ride Derrick Henry (18 carries) and Dion Lewis (14 carries). Did it work? Not really — neither Gabbert no the running backs were particularly effective. Tennessee won the game on special teams, with a touchdown, winning the time of possession battle, and Houston missing a field goal.

The table below shows the full week 2 Game Scripts data:

TeamH/ROppBoxscorePFPAMarginGame ScriptPassRunP/R RatioOp_POp_ROpp_P/R Ratio
LARARIBoxscore3403414.4343350.7%281565.1%
LAC@BUFBoxscore31201114.2292553.7%392263.9%
JAXNWEBoxscore31201112.2452465.2%372460.7%
CINBALBoxscore34231111.2422860%592272.8%
TAMPHIBoxscore2721610.9352360.3%512468%
DALNYGBoxscore2013710.1252550%501774.6%
KAN@PITBoxscore423759.4292553.7%611481.3%
MIA@NYJBoxscore201288.9273146.6%441969.8%
IND@WASBoxscore219127.7322853.3%492269%
CHISEABoxscore241777.1362757.1%422265.6%
TENHOUBoxscore201736.4233440.4%362658.1%
SFODETBoxscore302735.4322853.3%551875.3%
ATLCARBoxscore312474.7283246.7%471872.3%
NORCLEBoxscore21183-2.7382362.3%332755%
MIN@GNBBoxscore29290-4.8501873.5%462465.7%
DENOAKBoxscore20191-6362856.3%332755%

On the pass-happy side, well, with this good of a passing week, lots of teams went pass-happy. The Jaguars, playing without Leonard Fournette, were probably the most pass-happy among the winning teams once we account for Game Script. Jacksonville — to its credit — stayed aggressive despite a dominant +12.2 Game Script. Of course, not all Game Scripts are created equal, and a double digit one against the Patriots might be like a neutral Game Script against other teams. Still, the Jaguars threw on over 65% of passes, the first time that happened in franchise history in a game Jacksonville won by double digits.

Meawhile, the Steelers and Lions were pass-happy on the other side. Without Le’Veon Bell and facing a bad Game Script, Pittsburgh went super aggressive, passing on over 80% of plays. James Conner had 8 carries for only 17 yards, so I’m not sure this was the wrong approach. Detroit never has a running game, but it’s still very pass-happy to throw on 3 out of every 4 plays in a somewhat close game (it was even in the first half, the 49ers took a big lead in the second half, and then the Lions cut the gap late in the game).

Finally, the Packers/Vikings game was arguably the most pass-happy game of the young year. Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins might have a lot of shoot-outs in their future, particularly if Green Bay is going to the more run-heavy team.

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