Previously:
In week 2, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Atlanta — with three high-profile quarterbacks — all went pass-happy. Arizona and Carolina — who also sport a pair of number one overall picks at quarterback, did the same. Cleveland dominated the Jets in a game that wasn’t really ever in doubt, and yet Baker Mayfield still wound up throwing on nearly two-thirds of all plays. In Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes was tasked to throw on over two-thirds of Chiefs plays, but hey – he’s Mahomes! The Falcons have Matt Ryan, and while he was inconsistent against the Eagles, Devonta Freeman rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries. As a result, Atlanta threw on over 70% of its plays in a competitive game against Philadelphia, the highest pass ratio of any winning team in week two.
Meanwhile, Kyler Murray had 43 dropbacks and 3 rushing attempts against the Ravens, while RB David Johnson had just 7 carries. Arizona was trailing most of the way (-6.4 Game Script), but an 80% pass ratio is always going to stand out as pass-heavy. Arizona and Kliff Kingsbury had a similar Game Script in week 1 and threw on 72% of plays: it appears Arizona will not be easing into things for the number one overall pick. Finally, we have Carolina and Cam Newton, who is likely to miss week 3 with a lingering foot injury. Newton was obviously not at 100% in week 2 — he tied a career low with just 2 carries, and they gained 0 yards — and yet he tied a career high with 54 dropbacks! Christian McCaffrey (16 for 37) was not particularly effective on the ground, but this was a competitive game throughout. Normally, we suggest passing frequently in close games, but with an injured Newton, it’s fair to wonder if that was the right strategy.
The full week 2 Game Scripts below:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFO | @ | CIN | Boxscore | 41 | 17 | 24 | 16.1 | 26 | 42 | 38.2% | 47 | 19 | 71.2% |
| NWE | @ | MIA | Boxscore | 43 | 0 | 43 | 14.9 | 30 | 35 | 46.2% | 46 | 15 | 75.4% |
| CLE | @ | NYJ | Boxscore | 23 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 38 | 21 | 64.4% | 35 | 24 | 59.3% |
| GNB | MIN | Boxscore | 21 | 16 | 5 | 8.4 | 36 | 33 | 52.2% | 33 | 27 | 55% | |
| KAN | @ | OAK | Boxscore | 28 | 10 | 18 | 7.9 | 46 | 22 | 67.6% | 41 | 19 | 68.3% |
| BUF | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 28 | 14 | 14 | 7.7 | 33 | 34 | 49.3% | 46 | 20 | 69.7% |
| BAL | ARI | Boxscore | 23 | 17 | 6 | 6.4 | 39 | 33 | 54.2% | 43 | 11 | 79.6% | |
| LAR | NOR | Boxscore | 27 | 9 | 18 | 5.5 | 31 | 30 | 50.8% | 37 | 20 | 64.9% | |
| ATL | PHI | Boxscore | 24 | 20 | 4 | 4.4 | 44 | 17 | 72.1% | 51 | 21 | 70.8% | |
| DAL | @ | WAS | Boxscore | 31 | 21 | 10 | 4.1 | 31 | 34 | 47.7% | 38 | 17 | 69.1% |
| HOU | JAX | Boxscore | 13 | 12 | 1 | 3.1 | 33 | 30 | 52.4% | 37 | 21 | 63.8% | |
| CHI | @ | DEN | Boxscore | 16 | 14 | 2 | 2.4 | 27 | 29 | 48.2% | 52 | 24 | 68.4% |
| IND | @ | TEN | Boxscore | 19 | 17 | 2 | 1.2 | 31 | 34 | 47.7% | 32 | 24 | 57.1% |
| TAM | @ | CAR | Boxscore | 20 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 31 | 47.5% | 54 | 19 | 74% |
| SEA | @ | PIT | Boxscore | 28 | 26 | 2 | 0.6 | 39 | 33 | 54.2% | 35 | 16 | 68.6% |
| DET | LAC | Boxscore | 13 | 10 | 3 | -1.9 | 30 | 28 | 51.7% | 37 | 25 | 59.7% |
Meanwhile, we have the Minnesota Vikings, who really do seem intent on building a run-heavy team in 2019. The Vikings had a Game Script of -8.4, and yet still wound up with 27 rushes against 33 pass attempts. Dalvin Cook is playing extremely well, and Kirk Cousins is not, but it seems like a massive misuse of resources for the offense the team is building in Minnesota. We know that Cousins has a $29M cap number, but Stefon Diggs ($12.5M) is the team’s second-highest paid offensive player, and Adam Thielen ($8.1M this year) was signed to a 4-year, $65M extension last year. And yet, Minnesota does not seem to want to pass the ball unless they have to.
Chicago, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay also checked in as pretty run-heavy in week 2, but that makes a bit more sense. The most interesting team of the week might have been the Lions. Matthew Stafford has led so many pass-happy offenses in Detroit that is was jarring to see the Lions run on 48% of plays in a game where Detroit had a negative Game Script! The last time the Stafford Lions rushed on over 47% of plays in a game they trailed after 3 quarters was… back in 2009, during his rookie season! Stafford had 30 pass attempts, and while he did have 4 runs (1 kneel), the most interesting part is that Detroit ran despite not rushing all that effectively. Kerryon Johnson led the way with 12 carries for 41 yards, but the other backs had 12 carries for just 40 yards. Detroit now has ex-Seattle coach Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator, so it will be interesting to track this going forward. Will the Lions try to become a run-first offense? On 1st-and-10 plays against the Chargers, the Lions had 14 runs (one by Stafford) against 10 passes.