Week 3 Power Rankings

by Chase Stuart on September 27, 2012

Matt Schaub has the Texans undefeated and atop my power rankings.

Some additions to the weekly power rankings table. After the team name, I have listed each team’s record in column two and the number of wins I’m projecting each team to finish the season with in column 3 (i.e., the power rankings and the metric by which the table is sorted). The fourth column – PWIN – shows how many wins I projected for that team last week, and the difference column represents how many wins I added or subtracted this week. The “RSOS” column stands for the remaining SOS for the team, based on the number of projected wins I’m giving to each of their opponents. The “RHG” column stands for remaining home games. Lastly, my witty and insightful comments remain in the final column.

A lot of power rankings out there had Green Bay as #1 entering week 1, New England up top before week 2, and the 49ers in the 1 spot last week. That means each week of the season, the #1 team on most power rankings have lost. I didn’t do pre-season power rankings, but I did have New England first two weeks ago and San Francisco number one last week. This week, it’s the Texans chance to disappoint their fan base.

The other surprising nugget? There are just two 0-3 teams so far this season, and one of them is the Saints. The Cleveland Browns are now everyone’s front runners to win the Matt Barkley sweepstakes. If Brandon Weeden wants to keep his job, he’ll have to earn it.

Team	Rec	Wins	PWin	Diff	RSOS	RHG	Comment
Houston Texans	3-0	12	11	1	0.471	6	No compelling reason not to list the Texans as the best team in the NFL. The schedule is easy -- Houston will be favored in nearly every game -- so the Texans can easily go 9-4 the rest of the way.
San Francisco 49ers	2-1	11	12	-1	0.500	6	A loss to Minnesota has to drop them a game. I'll keep them at 11 for now, but a loss to either the Jets or the Bills the next two weeks probably gets them back down to 10.
New England Patriots	1-2	11	12	-1	0.481	6	By sweeping their not-so-good division, New England can go 4-3 against the rest of their schedule and get to 11 wins. A 12- or 13-win season isn't out of the question, and the Pats are only two plays away from 3-0.
Baltimore Ravens	2-1	11	10	1	0.490	7	Joe Flacco was his typical inconsistent self, but Torrey Smith gets the award for performance of the week. Without Terrell Suggs I hestitate to put them at 11 wins, but their rest of season schedule is pretty manageable.
Atlanta Falcons	3-0	11	10	1	0.466	6	I still have questions about Atlanta's offensive line and defense, but they're off to a great start. With an easy schedule and three banked wins -- the Falcons are probably a favorite to get a bye.
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-2	10	11	-1	0.481	6	The bye week comes at a good time for the Steelers, who should get a healthy James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and Rashard Mendenhall in week five. I'm only dropping them one win for that ugly second half against Oakland because Ben Roethlisberger had another great game.
Green Bay Packers	1-2	10	11	-1	0.457	7	Technically, four of my top five teams from last week lost. And technically, Green Bay is now 1-2. Officially, the Packers passing offense looks like garbage, as Aaron Rodgers ranks 28th in ANY/A. The Packers get the Rams, Colts and Jaguars in October, which is a decent consolation prize.
Philadelphia Eagles	2-1	9	10	-1	0.505	6	Yeah, they had a disaster against Arizona. And the Eagles can't protect Michael Vick. But doesn't this happen every year and then Philadelphia wins 5 in a row?
New York Giants	2-1	9	9	0	0.534	7	Giants looked outstanding against Carolina, but not ready to bump them to 10 wins/project a 8-5 finish against a brutal remaining schedule. A win in Philadelphia this weekend bumps them to 10 wins, but a loss probably won't drop them from 9 wins.
Dallas Cowboys	2-1	9	9	0	0.510	6	A 'take care of business' day against Tampa Bay. For any team in the NFC East, that's a must.
Seattle Seahawks	2-1	9	8	1	0.500	7	The Seahawks got a free win this week, but Russell Wilson struggled for much of the game. Still, an excellent performance by the defense against Green Bay and a strong running game show that they are a real threat in the NFC.
Arizona Cardinals	3-0	9	7	2	0.514	7	A two-game bump seems appropriate given how dominant the Cardinals' defense and special teams have been so far. I'm far from convinced about this team, though, which is why I'm still projecting a losing record the rest of the way.
Denver Broncos	1-2	9	10	-1	0.466	7	You know, this power rankings thing is harder than I thought. There's a very strong temptation to drop losing teams by a win and bump winning teams by one. I'm trying to resist that temptation, but so far, I'm not very good at it. Expect future Chase to make fun of current Chase for really squiggly lines when I post the final win charts. Oh, and Denver is lucky the AFC West stinks and their remaining schedule is full of flour and sugar.
Chicago Bears	2-1	9	9	0	0.510	7	An unimpressive win against the Rams. Jay Cutler is last in the NFL in ANY/A. The Bears have already used their Rams and Colts coupons ^[1]I liked when Mike Tanier used that line last week, so I'm going to steal it. Although I don't know if it's stealing it if I announce that I'm doing it. which means they need to play a lot better to go 7-6 the rest of the way. Fortunately the defense looks good so far.
San Diego Chargers	2-1	8	9	-1	0.481	7	Philip Rivers has a career high completion rate (67%) and a career low yards per attempt average (6.7). You know what that means: his anemic 10.0 yards per completion is horrible by any standard, let alone that of the guy who led the league in that metric in '09. I'm not ready to bail on the Chargers, but I'm close. Unfortunately for San Diego, I don't think an easy schedule means much for a team accustomed to shooting itself in the foot.
New York Jets	2-1	8	9	-1	0.510	6	A win over Miami helps, but the Jets drop due to the Darrelle Revis injury. Even 8 wins will be tough, but I think the Jets can win 2 games against the AFC South, with 2 out of 4 against BUF/MIA/NE/NE, and then 2 out of 5 against the NFC West and San Diego.
Cincinnati Bengals	2-1	8	7	1	0.495	6	After an ugly week 1, Andy Dalton and the Bengals are looking better. I'm far from on the bandwagon, but they might be the favorite right now for the AFC's 6 seed.
Buffalo Bills	2-1	8	7	1	0.500	6	Took care of business against the Browns; hopefully the injury to C.J. Spiller doesn't cost him to miss much time. If Ryan Fitzpatrick could improve even a little, Buffalo could sneak into the playoffs.
Detroit Lions	1-2	7	9	-2	0.538	6	A fluky game all around in Tennessee, but that's a bad loss for the Lions. They're a last-second win against the Rams from being 0-3, a bad sign for a team with a brutal remaining schedule.
New Orleans Saints	0-3	7	8	-1	0.548	7	If we restarted the season, I would still like New Orleans. But I can't project them to do any better than 7-6 against the rest of the way against the toughest schedule in the league.
Carolina Panthers	1-2	7	8	-1	0.519	7	Projecting a 6-7 finish for a team with 6 home games left and no cupcakes until December. Playoff hopes on the brink this weekend in Atlanta.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-2	7	7	0	0.481	6	A close in Dallas isn't anything to cry about. But if they have playoff aspirations, they'll need to beat Washington this week. Of course, the same holds true for the Redskins. Huge difference between 1-3 and 2-2.
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2	7	6	1	0.471	6	A save the season win in New Orleans gives them a one win bump. The good news is Jamaal Charles looks great and the AFC West is as wide open as it gets.
Minnesota Vikings	2-1	7	5	2	0.510	7	If we chose Pro Bowlers after week 3, Christian Ponder would make it in the NFC and Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees would not. A huge win over the 49ers at least gives the Vikings some playoff hope.
Washington Redskins	1-2	6	6	0	0.534	6	I'm not going to sour on Robert Griffin III, but losing to Cincinnati and dropping to 1-2 is a blow to playoff aspirations when you have a tough remaining schedule. Do-or-die game against Tampa Bay this week.
Miami Dolphins	1-2	6	6	0	0.500	7	The run defense has been excellent and Reggie Bush looked as good as I've seen him in the first half against the Jets; fortunately his knee injury is not expected to cause him too miss much time.
Tennessee Titans	1-2	6	5	1	0.490	7	Jake Locker had a great game, but the defense and Chris Johnson are very shaky. When Locker is the consistent element of your team, you're in trouble.
Oakland Raiders	1-2	6	5	1	0.481	7	That was a gritty win against the Steelers, but Oakland has to get a lot better if they want to make the playoffs. Their defense is not very good.
St. Louis Rams	1-2	5	6	-1	0.553	6	The NFC West is brutal; the Rams are going to be heavy underdogs most weeks, making even 5 wins a challenging goal. They need to win at least one game the next two week as they host Seattle and Arizona or this season could go downhill in a hurry.
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-2	5	5	0	0.490	6	Blaine Gabbert still has a long way to go. Before the 80-yard throw to Cecil Shorts that won the game, he was averaging fewer than five yards per attempt this year.
Indianapolis Colts	1-2	5	5	0	0.490	7	Tough loss to the Jaguars and one where Chuck Pagano again made some questionable strategy calls. But I think Luck and the offense has enough firepower to get them 4 more wins.
Cleveland Browns	0-3	4	4	0	0.524	7	The schedule doesn't lighten up, and the Browns are staring 0-6 down the hole with trips to Baltimore and New York on tap. I'll wait until they lose both of those games before dropping them to 3 wins.

References[+]

References
↑1	I liked when Mike Tanier used that line last week, so I'm going to steal it. Although I don't know if it's stealing it if I announce that I'm doing it.

Tagged as: 2012 Power Rankings

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