Previously:
Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh all have franchise quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger are three of the nine quarterbacks with salary cap hits in excess of $23,000,000 in 2018. Perhaps, then, we shouldn’t be too surprised to see those three teams all choose to pass on over 75% of plays in week 4.
And it’s not like week 4 was an anomaly: these three teams lead the league in passing attempts (including sacks) per game so far in 2018. The Colts are averaging a whopping 51.2 passing plays per game (boosted by another pass-happy performance last night in week 5), the Vikings 50.5 passing plays per game, and the Steelers 48.75. The fourth-place team in this metric is Baltimore, and Joe Flacco is another one of the $23M salary cap hit club.
I noted in the offseason that you can break down the league’s 32 teams into a few simple buckets:
- Half of the league (including Indianapolis, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore) had a quarterback under a “franchise money” type contract
- 12 of the league’s teams are using quarterbacks on rookie contracts, including the Jets, Bills, Cardinals, and Browns who are now starting 2018 first round picks.
- 4 teams, all in the AFC, are stuck with veteran quarterbacks who don’t appear to be franchise quarterbacks. Of this group, Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles, and Andy Dalton are all playing well: their teams are all 3-1 and they have slightly above-average passing stats, which would count as exceeding expectations. The fourth player is Case Keenum, and you can make the case that the Broncos are the only team that doesn’t have its 2019 quarterback already on its roster. In other words, 16 teams have a franchise quarterback (or a quarterback with a franchise quarterback salary), 12 teams have a quarterback on a rookie contract and at least some optimism for a long-term future (with perhaps Tampa Bay and Dallas being the sole exceptions), and 3 teams have a middling option who is actually playing pretty well.
The full week 4 Game Scripts data below:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | TAM | Boxscore | 48 | 10 | 38 | 26.3 | 27 | 31 | 46.6% | 42 | 18 | 70% | |
| NWE | MIA | Boxscore | 38 | 7 | 31 | 18.9 | 35 | 40 | 46.7% | 27 | 18 | 60% | |
| GNB | BUF | Boxscore | 22 | 0 | 22 | 12.7 | 42 | 32 | 56.8% | 40 | 16 | 71.4% | |
| JAX | NYJ | Boxscore | 31 | 12 | 19 | 8.2 | 40 | 34 | 54.1% | 37 | 14 | 72.5% | |
| BAL | @ | PIT | Boxscore | 26 | 14 | 12 | 6.2 | 44 | 30 | 59.5% | 48 | 11 | 81.4% |
| HOU | @ | IND | Boxscore | 37 | 34 | 3 | 5.1 | 49 | 35 | 58.3% | 66 | 17 | 79.5% |
| LAR | MIN | Boxscore | 38 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 34 | 20 | 63% | 54 | 17 | 76.1% | |
| NOR | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 33 | 18 | 15 | 3.3 | 35 | 32 | 52.2% | 44 | 15 | 74.6% |
| SEA | @ | ARI | Boxscore | 20 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 34 | 45.2% | 28 | 28 | 50% |
| DAL | DET | Boxscore | 26 | 24 | 2 | 1.6 | 31 | 35 | 47% | 33 | 20 | 62.3% | |
| CIN | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 37 | 36 | 1 | 0.4 | 44 | 23 | 65.7% | 42 | 24 | 63.6% |
| TEN | PHI | Boxscore | 26 | 23 | 3 | -1.4 | 46 | 22 | 67.6% | 54 | 22 | 71.1% | |
| OAK | CLE | Boxscore | 45 | 42 | 3 | -1.4 | 61 | 29 | 67.8% | 43 | 31 | 58.1% | |
| KAN | @ | DEN | Boxscore | 27 | 23 | 4 | -1.8 | 46 | 26 | 63.9% | 37 | 22 | 62.7% |
| LAC | SFO | Boxscore | 29 | 27 | 2 | -3.1 | 40 | 27 | 59.7% | 38 | 21 | 64.4% |
Well, almost full: there was a bug in the Browns/Raiders game, so for now, no Game Script number for that game. The Browns/Raiders game is now included in the table.
On the run-heavy side of things we have the Seahawks, who suddenly are looking like the old Seahawks (at least in terms of run/pass ratio). Behind Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny, Seattle running backs had 30 carries for an even 150 yards, a rarity in the modern NFL for a game that was decided on the final play. With 62 rushing attempts and just 57 pass plays, this was the most run-heavy game of the season. Arizona became the first team in 2018 to run on 50% or more of its plays and still lose, while the Seahawks finished the game with more rushing yards than passing yards.
For one day, in one stadium, things looked like the old NFL.