Previously:
If you drop back to pass 70 times, it doesn’t matter what the score is: that’s a very pass-heavy game! The Rams had one of the most pass-heavy games of the season on Sunday in a 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay. Los Angeles finished with 70 pass plays versus just 11 runs, an 86.4% pass ratio rarely see in the NFL.
And it wasn’t all game script. Los Angeles had 7 passes and 1 run (a Cooper Kupp handoff, no less) on the team’s first offensive drive of the game. And on the Rams second drive, with the score only 7-0, Los Angeles had 7 passes and no runs. The Rams seemed to overcorrect on their third drive by running on the first two plays of their third drive, but two Malcolm Brown runs led to a 3rd-and-4 and a Jared Goff interception. This means Todd Gurley didn’t get his first carry of the game until the team’s 18th play from scrimmage and fourth drive of the game.Aaron Rodgers and the Packers also had a very pass-heavy game plan in week four. This was a perfectly even game: it was a back-and-forth contest where Green Bay finished with a -0.1 Game Script. Running back Aaron Jones rushed 13 times for only 21 yards, while Rodgers had 53 pass attempts, 1 sack, and 5 scrambles (with zero designed runs). That means the Packers called 59 pass plays and just 15 rushes, although Game Scripts data currently considers scrambles as rushing plays. That’s remarkably pass-heavy for an even game.
Finally, Joe Flacco and the Broncos stood out as pass-happy, too. Denver lost, but led the most of the game and finished with a +4.9 Game Script. Flacco played pretty well, taking no sacks and throwing for 15 first downs and 303 yards on 38 attempts. Perhaps this was a response to my article about how Denver was over-the-top run-heavy in week 3?
The full week 4 Game Script data below:
Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NYG | WAS | Boxscore | 24 | 3 | 21 | 12.8 | 31 | 37 | 45.6% | 31 | 17 | 64.6% | |
SEA | @ | ARI | Boxscore | 27 | 10 | 17 | 11.3 | 32 | 27 | 54.2% | 36 | 23 | 61% |
TEN | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 24 | 10 | 14 | 10.4 | 27 | 34 | 44.3% | 58 | 17 | 77.3% |
OAK | @ | IND | Boxscore | 31 | 24 | 7 | 10.2 | 32 | 32 | 50% | 46 | 23 | 66.7% |
CHI | MIN | Boxscore | 16 | 6 | 10 | 9.7 | 35 | 32 | 52.2% | 42 | 16 | 72.4% | |
TAM | @ | LAR | Boxscore | 55 | 40 | 15 | 9.6 | 43 | 30 | 58.9% | 70 | 11 | 86.4% |
PIT | CIN | Boxscore | 27 | 3 | 24 | 9.6 | 31 | 25 | 55.4% | 45 | 19 | 70.3% | |
NWE | @ | BUF | Boxscore | 16 | 10 | 6 | 7.5 | 39 | 23 | 62.9% | 49 | 22 | 69% |
CLE | @ | BAL | Boxscore | 40 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 52.5% | 38 | 29 | 56.7% |
LAC | @ | MIA | Boxscore | 30 | 10 | 20 | 6.1 | 32 | 33 | 49.2% | 29 | 18 | 61.7% |
CAR | @ | HOU | Boxscore | 16 | 10 | 6 | 2.2 | 37 | 28 | 56.9% | 40 | 22 | 64.5% |
NOR | DAL | Boxscore | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1.3 | 35 | 27 | 56.5% | 34 | 20 | 63% | |
PHI | @ | GNB | Boxscore | 34 | 27 | 7 | 0.1 | 27 | 33 | 45% | 54 | 20 | 73% |
KAN | @ | DET | Boxscore | 34 | 30 | 4 | -1.1 | 42 | 25 | 62.7% | 38 | 35 | 52.1% |
JAX | @ | DEN | Boxscore | 26 | 24 | 2 | -4.9 | 38 | 38 | 50% | 38 | 16 | 70.4% |
Two teams came across as noticeably run-heavy in week 4, and those marks stood out even more considering their opponents. We already discussed how the Philadelphia/Green Bay game was an even battle. The Packers responded by calling a pass play on 80% of plays (counting scrambles as pass plays), while Philadelphia went in the other direction. Carson Wentz had 27 pass attempts, 0 sacks, and 2 scrambles. Meanwhile, Philadelphia running backs had 27 carries, while Wentz himself had two designed sneaks on 3rd-and-1 plays (in addition to two kneels). That means Philadelphia had an exactly even 29-29 split of designed pass plays versus designed runs, which is very run-heavy in 2019 for a game with an even Game Script.
And then there’s the Jaguars and Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville hoped that they could operate a run-heavy power offense when the team used the 4th overall pick on Fournette in 2017. On Sunday, that dream came to fruition, as Fournette rushed 29 times for 225 yards. In addition, backup RB Ryquell Armstead had 8 carries for 42 yards, and all of this came in a game against Denver where the Jaguars had a -4.9 Game Script! Jacksonville trailed 17-6 at halftime, but Gardner Minshew wound up with pass attempts on just 50% of the team’s plays.
What stands out to you?