Previously:
The Seahawks beat the Rams in week 5 by the smallest of margins, 30-29. Quarterback Russell Wilson was incredible, averaging 14.25 ANY/A against Los Angles on 24 dropbacks. Wilson also had 5 scrambles for 28 yards, two kneel downs, and one designed carry for six yards. The Seahawks also had 35 designed runs for players other than Wilson that picked up 135 yards.
That is, to put it bluntly, not the correct ratio. Giving Wilson 30 plays and running the ball 35 times with someone else is pretty silly, but it’s doubly bad in a close game where Wilson is playing like a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. Seattle trailed entering the 4th quarter, and while Wilson’s 8 carries make the stats a bit misleading, consider the following:
Seattle with 43 rush attempts on 67 plays, a 64% run ratio. That’s the second-highest run ratio of any game in the last 5 years where a team trailed entering the 4th quarter, behind a super run-heavy game by the Colts in the snow in Buffalo in 2017. Seattle finished with a negative Game Script and ran more than they passed — by a lot — in a game where Wilson was outstanding!
By way of reference, consider how the Colts had a super run-heavy game in week 5. Jacoby Brissett had 29 dropbacks and 6 runs (2 scrambles, 2 kneels, 2 designed runs), while Indianapolis runners besides Brissett had 39 rushes for 171 yards! That is a really run-heavy game, but keep in mind two things: Indianapolis had a slightly positive Game Script of +1.8, and Brissett wasn’t all that good, averaging 3.66 ANY/A! The Colts had the second most run-heavy game of the week, and were still less run-heavy than Seattle despite the better Game Script, the better rushing attack, and the much, much, much worse passing attack.
The full week 5 Game Scripts, below:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFO | CLE | Boxscore | 31 | 3 | 28 | 17.4 | 31 | 40 | 43.7% | 28 | 18 | 60.9% | |
| PHI | NYJ | Boxscore | 31 | 6 | 25 | 15.6 | 30 | 29 | 50.8% | 36 | 19 | 65.5% | |
| GNB | @ | DAL | Boxscore | 34 | 24 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 29 | 55.4% | 47 | 21 | 69.1% |
| DEN | @ | LAC | Boxscore | 20 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 23 | 32 | 41.8% | 48 | 16 | 75% |
| MIN | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 28 | 10 | 18 | 8.7 | 30 | 34 | 46.9% | 42 | 20 | 67.7% |
| NWE | @ | WAS | Boxscore | 33 | 7 | 26 | 8.5 | 47 | 27 | 63.5% | 32 | 21 | 60.4% |
| NOR | TAM | Boxscore | 31 | 24 | 7 | 5.8 | 36 | 31 | 53.7% | 33 | 22 | 60% | |
| CAR | JAX | Boxscore | 34 | 27 | 7 | 5.4 | 34 | 27 | 55.7% | 46 | 31 | 59.7% | |
| HOU | ATL | Boxscore | 53 | 32 | 21 | 4.9 | 33 | 34 | 49.3% | 48 | 20 | 70.6% | |
| OAK | CHI | Boxscore | 24 | 21 | 3 | 4.4 | 32 | 39 | 45.1% | 34 | 17 | 66.7% | |
| ARI | @ | CIN | Boxscore | 26 | 23 | 3 | 4.2 | 33 | 38 | 46.5% | 39 | 23 | 62.9% |
| BAL | @ | PIT | Boxscore | 26 | 23 | 3 | 2.4 | 33 | 40 | 45.2% | 32 | 19 | 62.7% |
| BUF | @ | TEN | Boxscore | 14 | 7 | 7 | 2.3 | 36 | 27 | 57.1% | 27 | 26 | 50.9% |
| IND | @ | KAN | Boxscore | 19 | 13 | 6 | 1.8 | 29 | 45 | 39.2% | 43 | 14 | 75.4% |
| SEA | LAR | Boxscore | 30 | 29 | 1 | -1.2 | 24 | 43 | 35.8% | 49 | 18 | 73.1% |
On the pass-heavy side, the two teams that stood out in week 5 were…. the opponents of the Seahawks and Colts. Jared Goff finished with 49 pass attempts for Los Angeles, finishing with more than twice the pass attempts of Wilson. He was much weaker than Wilson, but by simply having a more pass-happy approach, the Rams were able to stay in the game despite playing worse. Seattle ran the ball on 75% of their 1st down plays, while Los Angeles did so on just 39% of its 1st down plays. That put Los Angeles in more favorable 2nd down situations, neutralizing the difference in quarterback play.
For Kansas City, this was a game where the running game didn’t get going: outside of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs had 11 carries for just 19 yards. In a close game with the best quarterback in the NFL, it makes a lot of sense for Kansas City to go pass-happy, particularly when the running game isn’t performing.
What stands out to you?