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Week 5 (2020) Game Scripts: Bears and Bucs Air It Out

Previously:

You might not expect Nick Foles and Tom Brady — at least, the 2020 versions of those guys — to engage in an all out aerial assault. And while the quality wasn’t there, the quantity certainly was: combined, the two quarterbacks had 89 dropbacks, while the two teams called just 30 running plays (excluding QB sneaks and kneeldowns). That is a remarkably pass-heavy game, the likes of which we typically only see once a year. But in terms of passing efficiency, it was … not so great. The Bears were particularly notable: you often see a team have a poor passing day and also be pass-happy, but that’s usually because they lost the game; you rarely seem a team win, run just 14 times, and average under 5 yards per pass! In fact, it hadn’t happened since 2013, and it had only happened 9 times since the merger! Of course, Chicago wasn’t very effective on the ground, so passing still was the optimal strategy.

For Tampa Bay, this was just more evidence that Tampa Tom is in full control of the offense. The Bucs are 5th in pass attempts despite usually playing with a lead; on Thursday Night against Chicago, the Bucs finished with a +3.6 Game Script and still passed on nearly 70% of their plays.  Running back Ronald Jones II, who was the only player other than Brady to have a run or pass, finished with 17 carries; Brady finished with 43 plays! That means 72% of all Tampa plays — mind you, in a game they were usually leading — went through Brady.

The full week 5 Game Scripts below.

TeamH/ROppBoxscorePFPAMarginGame ScriptPassRunP/R RatioOp_POp_ROpp_P/R Ratio
MIA@SFOBoxscore43172615303149.2%401967.8%
BALCINBoxscore2732414.8382461.3%372856.9%
LAR@WASBoxscore3010209.7313547%381473.1%
ARI@NYJBoxscore3010209.6383055.9%362856.3%
TENBUFBoxscore4216269283544.4%472268.1%
CLEINDBoxscore322395.1393354.2%341865.4%
PITPHIBoxscore382994.7353252.2%411671.9%
HOUJAXBoxscore3014164.5362262.1%532072.6%
CAR@ATLBoxscore231673.4372757.8%392560.9%
LVR@KANBoxscore403280.6323547.8%462069.7%
DALNYGBoxscore37343-1.5352855.6%352756.5%
CHITAMBoxscore20191-3.6451476.3%442068.8%
SEAMINBoxscore27261-4.1361669.2%424150.6%
NORLACBoxscore30273-5.6502566.7%373154.4%

The Bengals, Raiders, and Jets all were pretty run-heavy in week five; they have drastically different explanations. For Cincinnati, the team just quit: the Bengals ended the game with a 13-play drive featuring 11 runs that ended in a face-saving field goal in a 27-3 loss.

The Jets were playing backup quarterback Joe Flacco, but New York also has a habit of just giving up in games, too. Week 5 marked the third time this season — already! — that the Jets trailed by double digits after the second, third, and fourth quarters… and still ran 27+ times. There have only been five games like that all year, and Adam Gase’s team has been responsible for more than half of them. There have been 22 games this year where a team trailed by 10+ points after the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters, and the Jets are the only team that seems to make a habit out of giving up.

Finally, the Las Vegas Raiders pulled off a huge upset of the Chiefs, and looked run-heavy in the process. But make no mistake, this game was all about a great passing attack; Las Vegas ended the game with runs on six of the final seven plays (excluding kneels), but it was the passing offense that carried the day.

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