In the first four weeks, the biggest “comeback” as measured by Game Script belonged to the Atlanta Falcons, who defeated the Cowboys despite posting a Game Script of -5.4. But Chicago won on Sunday despite a Game Script of -8.9! This game seemed like a Chiefs win from before kickoff — when Kansas City was a 9-point favorite — until the very end.
The Chiefs led 14-3 early in the second quarter, 17-3 at halftime, and 17-6 entering the 4th quarter. With five minutes left, Kansas City led by that same score. With 3:11 to go, Jay Cutler found Marquess Wilson for a 22-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-6, giving the Bears new life. After the failed two point conversion, the Chiefs went 3-and-out, and Cutler took over on his own 33 with 2:04 to go. He drove the Bears down the field again, and found Matt Forte for the game-winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining. The Bears drive chart reads: Punt, Fumble, Field Goal, Punt, Punt, Punt, End of Half, Field Goal, punt, Downs, followed by an 88-yard touchdown drive and a 67-yard touchdown drive. File this in your memory bank the next time a coach decides to take the conservative approach because his defense had been shutting down the opponent all day.
And while not on the same level, the Browns (-4.9), Bengals (-3.8), Steelers (-3.4), Bills (-2.7), and Falcons (-2.1) all won with negative Game Scripts. That always make the numbers a bit more interesting to look at. So let’s do just that: below are the week 5 Game Scripts data:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | @ | DET | Boxscore | 42 | 17 | 25 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 44.4% | 71 | 18 | 79.8% |
| GNB | STL | Boxscore | 24 | 10 | 14 | 9.4 | 32 | 27 | 54.2% | 33 | 36 | 47.8% | |
| NWE | @ | DAL | Boxscore | 30 | 6 | 24 | 9.3 | 33 | 23 | 58.9% | 42 | 24 | 63.6% |
| IND | @ | HOU | Boxscore | 27 | 20 | 7 | 6.6 | 29 | 29 | 50% | 42 | 28 | 60% |
| PHI | NOR | Boxscore | 39 | 17 | 22 | 6.1 | 45 | 34 | 57% | 48 | 21 | 69.6% | |
| TAM | JAX | Boxscore | 38 | 31 | 7 | 4.5 | 21 | 40 | 34.4% | 39 | 17 | 69.6% | |
| NYG | SFO | Boxscore | 30 | 27 | 3 | 2.8 | 54 | 21 | 72% | 37 | 27 | 57.8% | |
| DEN | @ | OAK | Boxscore | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0.7 | 37 | 18 | 67.3% | 43 | 25 | 63.2% |
| ATL | WAS | Boxscore | 25 | 19 | 6 | -2.1 | 45 | 32 | 58.4% | 33 | 24 | 57.9% | |
| BUF | @ | TEN | Boxscore | 14 | 13 | 1 | -2.7 | 22 | 28 | 44% | 34 | 28 | 54.8% |
| PIT | @ | SDG | Boxscore | 24 | 20 | 4 | -3.4 | 28 | 28 | 50% | 50 | 19 | 72.5% |
| CIN | SEA | Boxscore | 27 | 24 | 3 | -3.8 | 48 | 31 | 60.8% | 26 | 29 | 47.3% | |
| CLE | @ | BAL | Boxscore | 33 | 30 | 3 | -4.9 | 55 | 25 | 68.8% | 36 | 31 | 53.7% |
| CHI | @ | KAN | Boxscore | 18 | 17 | 1 | -8.9 | 46 | 26 | 63.9% | 33 | 25 | 56.9% |
Four teams stuck out as particularly run-happy this week: the Bills, Rams, Bucs, and Steelers.
- Buffalo trailed for most of the game, but finished with 28 rushes against just 22 pass plays. Of course, eight of those runs came via Tyrod Taylor, and the Bills de facto number one receiver was Chris Hogan.
- The Bucs had the lowest pass ratio of the week: Tampa Bay rushed 40 times against just 21 dropbacks. Doug Martin had the bulk of the carries, but he and Charles Sims had 36 carries for 174 yards. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston was effective in this role, completing 13 of 19 passes for 209 yards and one touchdown.
- St. Louis actually rushed more than it passed despite trailing for most of the game in Green Bay. Todd Gurley had 30 carries for 159 yards, although given the terrible performance by Nick Foles (-1.12 ANY/A), the run-heavy game plan made a lot of sense.
- With Ben Roethlisberger hurt, it’s not surprising that the Steelers relied on the ground game against San Diego. Even though Pittsburgh had a negative Game Script, putting the ball in the hands of Le’Veon Bell instead of Michael Vick is not exactly surprising.
On the other side, two teams stood out as very pass-happy: Chargers and Giants.
- Philip Rivers threw 48 passes and was sacked two more times; meanwhile, the Chargers had just 19 carries. The Chargers running backs averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, while Rivers averaged 7.1 yards per dropback. Those sorts of efficiency ratings will essentially make Rivers Game Script-proof.
- The Giants had the third most pass-happy ratio of any team in week 5, and the highest of any winning team. Eli Manning was lights out against the 49ers, completing 41 of 54 passes for 441 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. He also made pass attempts to his running backs as a long handoff: he completed all 12 of his targets to Shane Vereen and Rashad Jennings for 107 yards.
What stands out to you from the week 5 data?