The Jets have long been one of the most run-happy teams in the NFL, particularly after accounting for Game Script. That rung true again in week 6, when New York was in control for most of the game against Washington. The Jets had a solid +6.1 Game Script, but most teams would still pass at least half of the time with that sort of game flow. But not the Jets, who passed on just 38.8% of pass plays and recorded a league-high 41 runs in week 6.
Four of those runs were from Ryan Fitzpatrick (an 18-yard touchdown, a 15-yard scramble, and two kneels), but Chris Ivory and Zac Stacy rushed 33 times for 192 yards (less impressive: Bilal Powell with four carries for -2 yards). The Jets are always going to run the ball, and when the Game Script goes their way, they will put up some truly impressive rushing totals. There have been just four games this year where a team has rushed more than 40 times, and two of those came in New York’s last four games. With a date in Foxboro this weekend, tracking the Jets pass/run ratio will be very interesting if the Game Script doesn’t go the Jets way. In New York’s only loss, the Jets had 59 passes and just 16 runs.
Without Ben Roethlisberger — and with Le’Veon Bell — the Steelers have become quite the run-happy team. Pittsburgh has now run more than its passed over the last three weeks, including a pass ratio of just under 40% despite posting a negative Game Script against the Cardinals (don’t let the 12-point final margin of victory fool you). The Steelers have completed just 43 passes over the team’s last three games.
Below are the week 6 Game Scripts data. As you can see, the biggest comeback of the week belongs to the Carolina Panthers.
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | @ | TEN | Boxscore | 38 | 10 | 28 | 12.1 | 31 | 32 | 49.2% | 47 | 18 | 72.3% |
| NOR | ATL | Boxscore | 31 | 21 | 10 | 9.2 | 40 | 32 | 55.6% | 49 | 19 | 72.1% | |
| PHI | NYG | Boxscore | 27 | 7 | 20 | 8.4 | 39 | 36 | 52% | 41 | 23 | 64.1% | |
| SFO | BAL | Boxscore | 25 | 20 | 5 | 7.6 | 30 | 25 | 54.5% | 53 | 22 | 70.7% | |
| CIN | @ | BUF | Boxscore | 34 | 21 | 13 | 7.1 | 33 | 26 | 55.9% | 44 | 23 | 65.7% |
| MIN | KAN | Boxscore | 16 | 10 | 6 | 6.3 | 33 | 35 | 48.5% | 39 | 18 | 68.4% | |
| GNB | SDG | Boxscore | 27 | 20 | 7 | 6.2 | 32 | 17 | 65.3% | 68 | 21 | 76.4% | |
| NYJ | WAS | Boxscore | 34 | 20 | 14 | 6.1 | 26 | 41 | 38.8% | 45 | 17 | 72.6% | |
| DEN | @ | CLE | Boxscore | 26 | 23 | 3 | 4.4 | 48 | 33 | 59.3% | 43 | 33 | 56.6% |
| HOU | @ | JAX | Boxscore | 31 | 20 | 11 | 3.6 | 37 | 31 | 54.4% | 56 | 21 | 72.7% |
| NWE | @ | IND | Boxscore | 34 | 27 | 7 | 3.5 | 39 | 25 | 60.9% | 53 | 21 | 71.6% |
| DET | CHI | Boxscore | 37 | 34 | 3 | 2.3 | 44 | 31 | 58.7% | 42 | 31 | 57.5% | |
| PIT | ARI | Boxscore | 25 | 13 | 12 | -1.5 | 21 | 32 | 39.6% | 46 | 19 | 70.8% | |
| CAR | @ | SEA | Boxscore | 27 | 23 | 4 | -4.2 | 39 | 33 | 54.2% | 34 | 26 | 56.7% |
Miami, in the team’s first game A.P., had a perfectly balanced pass/run ratio given the team’s Game Script, and Lamar Miller finally showed what he was capable of doing when given a larger load. Tracking the Dolphins pass identity over the next few weeks should be very revealing.
The Packers-Chargers game was very pass-happy, which makes sense given the presence of Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. The Packers had a Game Script of +6.2 — you know, almost identical to what the Jets had — and still threw on nearly two-thirds of all plays. San Diego, of course, passed a whopping 68 times on Sunday.
Three other teams stood out as pass-happy in losing efforts: the Jaguars, Colts, and Cardinals. Jacksonville was playing without T.J. Yeldon, and Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson gained just 45 yards on 16 carries; as a result, Blake Bortles dropped back 60 times (including runs) in a game where the Jaguars had a -3.6 Game Script. Indianapolis had a similar Game Script and a very similar pass/run ratio: given the Patriots perceived strength on defense is against the run rather than the pass, that makes some sense.
Arizona being so pass-happy was a surprise, but the running game simply couldn’t get going against a Pittsburgh defense that has played pretty well this year against the run.
As always, leave your Game Scripts thoughts in the comments!