Previously:
In week 7, the Bears lost by 11 points and the Dolphins lost by 10 points, but the games couldn’t have been more different. Game Scripts are useful in cases like this: the Saints beat Chicago 36-25 but had a Game Script of +7.7. New Orleans 26-10 after three quarters, and 36-10 with 4 minutes remaining before the Bears raced to score 15 meaningless points. Meanwhile, in Buffalo, the Bills won with a Game Script of just +0.5. Miami actually led 14-9 at halftime and at the end of the third quarter, and only led 24-21 with less than two minutes remaining. Buffalo scored a touchdown on Miami’s last minute onside kick attempt, giving Buffalo a 10-point win in a game that was very close throughout.
The table below shows the Game Scripts from week 7:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWE | @ | NYJ | Boxscore | 33 | 0 | 33 | 20.2 | 45 | 34 | 57% | 33 | 20 | 62.3% |
| DAL | PHI | Boxscore | 37 | 10 | 27 | 14.8 | 30 | 36 | 45.5% | 29 | 28 | 50.9% | |
| KAN | @ | DEN | Boxscore | 30 | 6 | 24 | 11.2 | 31 | 27 | 53.4% | 43 | 21 | 67.2% |
| LAR | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 37 | 10 | 27 | 11 | 38 | 36 | 51.4% | 38 | 15 | 71.7% |
| GNB | OAK | Boxscore | 42 | 24 | 18 | 9.2 | 32 | 23 | 58.2% | 31 | 31 | 50% | |
| NOR | @ | CHI | Boxscore | 36 | 25 | 11 | 7.7 | 39 | 35 | 52.7% | 56 | 7 | 88.9% |
| ARI | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 27 | 21 | 6 | 6.2 | 23 | 38 | 37.7% | 43 | 22 | 66.2% |
| IND | HOU | Boxscore | 30 | 23 | 7 | 5.6 | 41 | 26 | 61.2% | 37 | 24 | 60.7% | |
| BAL | @ | SEA | Boxscore | 30 | 16 | 14 | 2.7 | 21 | 35 | 37.5% | 42 | 26 | 61.8% |
| JAX | @ | CIN | Boxscore | 27 | 17 | 10 | 2.3 | 34 | 44 | 43.6% | 45 | 20 | 69.2% |
| MIN | @ | DET | Boxscore | 42 | 30 | 12 | 2.2 | 34 | 37 | 47.9% | 47 | 20 | 70.1% |
| SFO | @ | WAS | Boxscore | 9 | 0 | 9 | 1.6 | 23 | 39 | 37.1% | 15 | 26 | 36.6% |
| TEN | LAC | Boxscore | 23 | 20 | 3 | 0.9 | 32 | 29 | 52.5% | 39 | 21 | 65% | |
| BUF | MIA | Boxscore | 31 | 21 | 10 | 0.5 | 28 | 23 | 54.9% | 37 | 29 | 56.1% |
The Bears posted the most pass-happy game of the season, both by traditional stats and from a Game Scripts perspective. In fact, it was one of the most pass-happy games of all time; in fact, it’s just the 6th game where a team passed on 88% or more of its plays, and the third most pass-happy game (without adjusting for Game Script) in NFL history. The Bears obviously had a strongly negative Game Script, but given how absurd the pass ratio was, it’s still the most pass-happy game of the year (even once you account for Game Script).
The graph below shows the Game Script (X-Axis) and Pass Ratio (Y-Axis) for every game so far this year.
In other news, the 49ers and Redskins played one of the most run-heavy games in the last ten seasons; in terms of run-to-pass ratio, this joins the Colts/Bills blizzard game from 2017 and a snowy, windy Bears/49ers game from 2016 where neither team completed a pass in the first quarter and Colin Kaepernick was benched after going 1-for-5 with five sacks. Like those games, the San Francisco/Washington game was effected heavily by weather: in this case, a windy, rainy day in D.C.
The Eagles and Ravens also stood out as super run-heavy in week 7. Philadelphia lost by 27 points and had nearly a 50/50 split of runs and passes! The Eagles gave up on the end, with 7 runs and 1 pass on the team’s final drive, but even through 3 quarters, the run/pass ratio split was exactly 50/50. For reference, last week, the Eagles passed on two-thirds of their plays against the Vikings, when Philadelphia had a Game Script of -9.9.
Meanwhile, under Lamar Jackson, the Ravens continue to be super run-heavy. In a tight game against the Seahawks (+2.7 Game Script, don’t look at the final 30-16 score), Baltimore rushed on 62.5% of all plays, with Jackson himself having 14 runs (5 scrambles).
What stands out to you?