In week 1, the Chargers lost to the Chiefs despite a Game Script of +10.3. San Diego led 21-3 at halftime and 24-3 in the third quarter, but the Chiefs ultimately won in overtime.
It’s pretty unusal to lose with a +10 Game Script, or stated another way, it’s pretty unusual to win with a -10 Game Script. But that’s exactly what San Diego did in week seven, beating Atlanta with a Game Script of -10.2. The Chargers trailed 27-10 in the first half, but won in overtime, 33-30. The Chargers still had an element of balance in the game — Melvin Gordon had 22 carries for 68 yards and two touchdowns — while the Falcons were done in by the team’s last three drives ending on an interception, a missed field goal, and a turnover on downs.
Below are the week seven Game Scripts data. As is customary around these parts, I’ve lowlighted the Seahawks/Cardinals game in blue as a result of their tie (you can move your cursor over that row to see it more clearly, not that I know why you would want to).
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | @ | JAX | Boxscore | 33 | 16 | 17 | 8.8 | 36 | 33 | 52.2% | 44 | 14 | 75.9% |
| CIN | CLE | Boxscore | 31 | 17 | 14 | 8.3 | 31 | 30 | 50.8% | 36 | 26 | 58.1% | |
| PHI | MIN | Boxscore | 21 | 10 | 11 | 7.6 | 28 | 26 | 51.9% | 47 | 27 | 63.5% | |
| KAN | NOR | Boxscore | 27 | 21 | 6 | 7.5 | 24 | 28 | 46.2% | 48 | 22 | 68.6% | |
| NWE | @ | PIT | Boxscore | 27 | 16 | 11 | 5.8 | 25 | 29 | 46.3% | 46 | 21 | 68.7% |
| DEN | HOU | Boxscore | 27 | 9 | 18 | 4.9 | 25 | 35 | 41.7% | 42 | 25 | 62.7% | |
| IND | @ | TEN | Boxscore | 34 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 41 | 24 | 63.1% | 38 | 27 | 58.5% |
| DET | WAS | Boxscore | 20 | 17 | 3 | 2.5 | 32 | 19 | 62.7% | 41 | 29 | 58.6% | |
| TAM | @ | SFO | Boxscore | 34 | 17 | 17 | 2.2 | 32 | 41 | 43.8% | 38 | 28 | 57.6% |
| GNB | CHI | Boxscore | 26 | 10 | 16 | 1.3 | 58 | 23 | 71.6% | 27 | 18 | 60% | |
| SEA | @ | ARI | Boxscore | 6 | 6 | 0 | -1.4 | 37 | 19 | 66.1% | 53 | 37 | 58.9% |
| NYG | @ | RAM | Boxscore | 17 | 10 | 7 | -1.8 | 37 | 20 | 64.9% | 56 | 20 | 73.7% |
| MIA | BUF | Boxscore | 28 | 25 | 3 | -2.4 | 26 | 42 | 38.2% | 32 | 22 | 59.3% | |
| NYJ | BAL | Boxscore | 24 | 16 | 8 | -6 | 27 | 38 | 41.5% | 45 | 12 | 78.9% | |
| SDG | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 33 | 30 | 3 | -10.2 | 49 | 26 | 65.3% | 37 | 26 | 58.7% |
The Dolphins and Jets were extremely run-heavy this week. Miami, behind Jay Ajayi, won with a Game Script of -2.4 and finished with 42 runs against just 26 pass plays. That’s a crazy run-heavy ratio in a win, much less in a win where the team is trailing at halftime and at the end of the third quarter. The Jets fell behind early against Baltimore, but Matt Forte still wound up with 30 carries for 100 yards. With Geno Smith leaving early and Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing him, the Jets chose to put the game in the hands of Forte rather than Fitzpatrick (or Bilal Powell, who was the emergency quarterback if Fitzpatrick went down).
The Ravens, Rams, and Packers all came off as very pass-heavy this week. We have grown accustomed to the Joe Flacco 2016 Ravens being really pass-heavy, and it’s hard to stick to the running game when a team finishes with 12 carries for 6 yards. And it’s no surprise that Green Bay put the game in the hands of Aaron Rodgers given the team’s injuries at running back: Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb led the Packers in carries in a win on Thursday night against Chicago, and finished with the highest pass ratio for any winning team this week.
But Los Angeles? That was the big surprise this week: Case Keenum had 56 dropbacks compared to only 15 runs for Todd Gurley. That is crazy in any game, but particularly in one in which the Rams led in the fourth quarter. But Gurley isn’t helping his own cause too much, either: he had a long run of just eight yards.