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Week 7 Passing Stats: The Rookies Play Like Rookies

This was not a good week to be a rookie quarterback. Josh Allen was on the sidelines due to an injured elbow, and he may have had the best week of any of the top rookie passers.

Josh Rosen was a disaster on Thursday night, as he threw two picks six as his Cardinals were destroyed, 45-10. Even ignoring that two of his three interceptions were returned for touchdowns, Rosen finished with a 0.87 ANY/A average, the worst of any quarterback in week seven.

Sam Darnold was not much better. The Jets had six drives in the second quarter, and picked up zero first downs. For the game, Darnold finished with 45 dropbacks and threw for just 7 first downs, and his 16% passing first down rate was the worst of any quarterback in week seven.

Baker Mayfield was only slightly better: the Browns seven first half drives ended in six straight punts and a turnover on downs when Cleveland took possession at the Tampa Bay 19-yard line. Cleveland had 6 three-and-outs, and the Browns picked up a first down on just 21% of all passing plays: third-worst of the week, ahead of only the Cardinals and Jets.

The top passers this week were Rivers and Mahomes, who have separated themselves as the top two quarterbacks in the AFC this season. The full week 7 passing stats below. On average this week, teams completed 22.1 of 34.0 passes, for 247.4 gross passing yards, with a 93.4 passer rating.

RkQuarterbackTmOppResultAttYdsTDIntSkYdsANY/AVALUE
1Philip RiversLACTENW 20-1926306202912.04161
2Patrick MahomesKANCINW 45-103935841259.46131
3Eli ManningNYGATLL 20-2338399104279.33128
4Matt RyanATLNYGW 23-2039379103238.95112
5Matthew StaffordDETMIAW 32-2122217201810.83105
6Andrew LuckINDBUFW 37-523156400010.2692
7Carson WentzPHICARL 17-2137310204267.967
8Jared GoffLARSFOW 39-1024202202178.6562
9Joe FlaccoBALNORL 23-2439279201107.7358
10Tom BradyNWECHIW 38-313627731147.7856
11Drew BreesNORBALW 24-233021220177.950
12Emmanuel SandersDENARIW 45-1012810004842
13Brock OsweilerMIADETL 21-3231239204247.2935
14Cam NewtonCARPHIW 21-1739269202197.0733
15Alex SmithWASDALW 20-172517810137.532
16Dak PrescottDALWASL 17-2035273104236.9225
17Jeff DriskelCINKANL 10-4543900009.7514
18Kirk CousinsMINNYJW 37-1740241201136.5411
19Lamar JacksonBALNORL 23-241500005-1
20Deshaun WatsonHOUJAXW 20-72413910186.04-6
21Marcus MariotaTENLACL 19-2032237112115.91-13
22Blake BortlesJAXHOUL 7-20126100005.08-14
23Baker MayfieldCLETAML 23-2634215205295.79-19
24Case KeenumDENARIW 45-1021161112115.43-19
25Mitch TrubiskyCHINWEL 31-3850333222145.17-58
26Andy DaltonCINKANL 10-4529148112133.55-85
27Jameis WinstonTAMCLEW 26-2352365024234.5-100
28Cody KesslerJAXHOUL 7-2030156114283.03-111
29C.J. BeathardSFOLARL 10-3927170127491.5-163
30Derek AndersonBUFINDL 5-373117503271-174
31Sam DarnoldNYJMINL 17-3742206133141.71-206
32Josh RosenARIDENL 10-4539194136400.87-244
Total95269274621734656.280

Let’s take a moment to look at Cam Newton, who had a remarkable performance in week seven. On his first 18 dropbacks, he went 8/16 for 59 pass yards with just 3 first downs, 0 TDs, 2 sacks, and -19 sack yards; he averaged 2.22 ANY/A. Meanwhile, his final 23 dropbacks went like this: 17/23, 210 pass yards, 10 first downs, 2 TDs, 0 sacks, 10.87 ANY/A.

The graph below shows every Newton pass, sack, and rushing attempt against the Eagles. The X-Axis shows time elapsed in the game; the Y-Axis shows the adjusted net yards gained by Newton on each play; the size of each dot represents the scoring differential in the game (small dots for when the Panthers were down big, medium sized dots for when the game was close; there are no large dots, because Newton didn’t take any snaps while leading except for a final kneel down.)

Cam and the Panthers didn’t do much for three quarters, before turning it on for the final 15 minutes:

Finally, here are the season-to-date passing stats. With one exception, the top of this list does a pretty good job of identifying the lead horses in the MVP race. That exception is for Ryan, whose Falcons are 3-4 and have lost two games where the team has scored 36+ points, is probably a distant candidate in the MVP race. But Ryan is not too far off his scorched-earth pace from 2016, when he won MVP. And while the order is different, the five offenses with the best success rate (scores per drive) this year are, in order, New Orleans, Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta.

RkQuarterbackTmAgeAttYdsTDIntSkYdsANY/AValue
1Patrick MahomesKAN2325122232258319.29735
2Philip RiversLAC3722020081739619.4673
3Jared GoffLAR24218213014513859.09609
4Matt RyanATL332632335152201318.53587
5Drew BreesNOR3922018701309718.99580
6Ryan FitzpatrickTAM3612913561157379.66436
7Aaron RodgersGNB352541997121191277.56302
8Ben RoethlisbergerPIT3626120331269597.2201
9Carson WentzPHI261951502101171227.24166
10Tom BradyNWE4125018761679547.05155
11Kirk CousinsMIN303002162143191116.88136
12Matthew StaffordDET30213160212510676.95110
13Russell WilsonSEA301651308134191256.8675
14Mitch TrubiskyCHI24211159413614946.6237
15Joe FlaccoBAL33303206711412516.5322
16Alex SmithWAS3419613837213726.5112
17Cam NewtonCAR29209142711410656.4-12
18Deshaun WatsonHOU232411937107261286.34-30
19Eli ManningNYG37268206174241816.3-45
20Jameis WinstonTAM24113905568405.74-86
21Ryan TannehillMIA301299728511985.78-95
22Andy DaltonCIN312581822158141136.06-107
23Derek CarrOAK2723317837817975.86-148
24Andrew LuckIND29311194820810765.96-161
25Blake BortlesJAX2624917359814685.65-211
26Dak PrescottDAL25206141784231355.51-217
27C.J. BeathardSFO25141106277141264.91-240
28Baker MayfieldCLE23187129165181155.22-253
29Case KeenumDEN30254184889171175.48-264
30Sam DarnoldNYJ212211552101016995.08-327
31Marcus MariotaTEN25150103035191104.47-336
32Josh RosenARI211298203513943.95-356
33Josh AllenBUF2213983225211673-553
Lg Avg76825763237419053834896.460

At this point, I wouldn’t split hairs over remarkable numbers vs. otherworldly numbers. The big question will be which quarterbacks can maintain their ridiculous pace.

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