Week 7 Passing Stats: The Rookies Play Like Rookies

by Chase Stuart on October 23, 2018

This was not a good week to be a rookie quarterback. Josh Allen was on the sidelines due to an injured elbow, and he may have had the best week of any of the top rookie passers.

Josh Rosen was a disaster on Thursday night, as he threw two picks six as his Cardinals were destroyed, 45-10. Even ignoring that two of his three interceptions were returned for touchdowns, Rosen finished with a 0.87 ANY/A average, the worst of any quarterback in week seven.

Sam Darnold was not much better. The Jets had six drives in the second quarter, and picked up zero first downs. For the game, Darnold finished with 45 dropbacks and threw for just 7 first downs, and his 16% passing first down rate was the worst of any quarterback in week seven.

Baker Mayfield was only slightly better: the Browns seven first half drives ended in six straight punts and a turnover on downs when Cleveland took possession at the Tampa Bay 19-yard line. Cleveland had 6 three-and-outs, and the Browns picked up a first down on just 21% of all passing plays: third-worst of the week, ahead of only the Cardinals and Jets.

The top passers this week were Rivers and Mahomes, who have separated themselves as the top two quarterbacks in the AFC this season. The full week 7 passing stats below. On average this week, teams completed 22.1 of 34.0 passes, for 247.4 gross passing yards, with a 93.4 passer rating.

Search:

Rk	Quarterback	Tm	Opp	Result	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	ANY/A	VALUE
1	Philip Rivers	LAC	TEN	W 20-19	26	306	2	0	2	9	12.04	161
2	Patrick Mahomes	KAN	CIN	W 45-10	39	358	4	1	2	5	9.46	131
3	Eli Manning	NYG	ATL	L 20-23	38	399	1	0	4	27	9.33	128
4	Matt Ryan	ATL	NYG	W 23-20	39	379	1	0	3	23	8.95	112
5	Matthew Stafford	DET	MIA	W 32-21	22	217	2	0	1	8	10.83	105
6	Andrew Luck	IND	BUF	W 37-5	23	156	4	0	0	0	10.26	92
7	Carson Wentz	PHI	CAR	L 17-21	37	310	2	0	4	26	7.9	67
8	Jared Goff	LAR	SFO	W 39-10	24	202	2	0	2	17	8.65	62
9	Joe Flacco	BAL	NOR	L 23-24	39	279	2	0	1	10	7.73	58
10	Tom Brady	NWE	CHI	W 38-31	36	277	3	1	1	4	7.78	56
11	Drew Brees	NOR	BAL	W 24-23	30	212	2	0	1	7	7.9	50
12	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	ARI	W 45-10	1	28	1	0	0	0	48	42
13	Brock Osweiler	MIA	DET	L 21-32	31	239	2	0	4	24	7.29	35
14	Cam Newton	CAR	PHI	W 21-17	39	269	2	0	2	19	7.07	33
15	Alex Smith	WAS	DAL	W 20-17	25	178	1	0	1	3	7.5	32
16	Dak Prescott	DAL	WAS	L 17-20	35	273	1	0	4	23	6.92	25
17	Jeff Driskel	CIN	KAN	L 10-45	4	39	0	0	0	0	9.75	14
18	Kirk Cousins	MIN	NYJ	W 37-17	40	241	2	0	1	13	6.54	11
19	Lamar Jackson	BAL	NOR	L 23-24	1	5	0	0	0	0	5	-1
20	Deshaun Watson	HOU	JAX	W 20-7	24	139	1	0	1	8	6.04	-6
21	Marcus Mariota	TEN	LAC	L 19-20	32	237	1	1	2	11	5.91	-13
22	Blake Bortles	JAX	HOU	L 7-20	12	61	0	0	0	0	5.08	-14
23	Baker Mayfield	CLE	TAM	L 23-26	34	215	2	0	5	29	5.79	-19
24	Case Keenum	DEN	ARI	W 45-10	21	161	1	1	2	11	5.43	-19
25	Mitch Trubisky	CHI	NWE	L 31-38	50	333	2	2	2	14	5.17	-58
26	Andy Dalton	CIN	KAN	L 10-45	29	148	1	1	2	13	3.55	-85
27	Jameis Winston	TAM	CLE	W 26-23	52	365	0	2	4	23	4.5	-100
28	Cody Kessler	JAX	HOU	L 7-20	30	156	1	1	4	28	3.03	-111
29	C.J. Beathard	SFO	LAR	L 10-39	27	170	1	2	7	49	1.5	-163
30	Derek Anderson	BUF	IND	L 5-37	31	175	0	3	2	7	1	-174
31	Sam Darnold	NYJ	MIN	L 17-37	42	206	1	3	3	14	1.71	-206
32	Josh Rosen	ARI	DEN	L 10-45	39	194	1	3	6	40	0.87	-244
	Total				952	6927	46	21	73	465	6.28	0

Let’s take a moment to look at Cam Newton, who had a remarkable performance in week seven. On his first 18 dropbacks, he went 8/16 for 59 pass yards with just 3 first downs, 0 TDs, 2 sacks, and -19 sack yards; he averaged 2.22 ANY/A. Meanwhile, his final 23 dropbacks went like this: 17/23, 210 pass yards, 10 first downs, 2 TDs, 0 sacks, 10.87 ANY/A.

The graph below shows every Newton pass, sack, and rushing attempt against the Eagles. The X-Axis shows time elapsed in the game; the Y-Axis shows the adjusted net yards gained by Newton on each play; the size of each dot represents the scoring differential in the game (small dots for when the Panthers were down big, medium sized dots for when the game was close; there are no large dots, because Newton didn’t take any snaps while leading except for a final kneel down.)

Cam and the Panthers didn’t do much for three quarters, before turning it on for the final 15 minutes:

Finally, here are the season-to-date passing stats. With one exception, the top of this list does a pretty good job of identifying the lead horses in the MVP race. That exception is for Ryan, whose Falcons are 3-4 and have lost two games where the team has scored 36+ points, is probably a distant candidate in the MVP race. But Ryan is not too far off his scorched-earth pace from 2016, when he won MVP. And while the order is different, the five offenses with the best success rate (scores per drive) this year are, in order, New Orleans, Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta.

Search:

Rk	Quarterback	Tm	Age	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	ANY/A	Value
1	Patrick Mahomes	KAN	23	251	2223	22	5	8	31	9.29	735
2	Philip Rivers	LAC	37	220	2008	17	3	9	61	9.4	673
3	Jared Goff	LAR	24	218	2130	14	5	13	85	9.09	609
4	Matt Ryan	ATL	33	263	2335	15	2	20	131	8.53	587
5	Drew Brees	NOR	39	220	1870	13	0	9	71	8.99	580
6	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TAM	36	129	1356	11	5	7	37	9.66	436
7	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	35	254	1997	12	1	19	127	7.56	302
8	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	36	261	2033	12	6	9	59	7.2	201
9	Carson Wentz	PHI	26	195	1502	10	1	17	122	7.24	166
10	Tom Brady	NWE	41	250	1876	16	7	9	54	7.05	155
11	Kirk Cousins	MIN	30	300	2162	14	3	19	111	6.88	136
12	Matthew Stafford	DET	30	213	1602	12	5	10	67	6.95	110
13	Russell Wilson	SEA	30	165	1308	13	4	19	125	6.86	75
14	Mitch Trubisky	CHI	24	211	1594	13	6	14	94	6.62	37
15	Joe Flacco	BAL	33	303	2067	11	4	12	51	6.53	22
16	Alex Smith	WAS	34	196	1383	7	2	13	72	6.51	12
17	Cam Newton	CAR	29	209	1427	11	4	10	65	6.4	-12
18	Deshaun Watson	HOU	23	241	1937	10	7	26	128	6.34	-30
19	Eli Manning	NYG	37	268	2061	7	4	24	181	6.3	-45
20	Jameis Winston	TAM	24	113	905	5	6	8	40	5.74	-86
21	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	30	129	972	8	5	11	98	5.78	-95
22	Andy Dalton	CIN	31	258	1822	15	8	14	113	6.06	-107
23	Derek Carr	OAK	27	233	1783	7	8	17	97	5.86	-148
24	Andrew Luck	IND	29	311	1948	20	8	10	76	5.96	-161
25	Blake Bortles	JAX	26	249	1735	9	8	14	68	5.65	-211
26	Dak Prescott	DAL	25	206	1417	8	4	23	135	5.51	-217
27	C.J. Beathard	SFO	25	141	1062	7	7	14	126	4.91	-240
28	Baker Mayfield	CLE	23	187	1291	6	5	18	115	5.22	-253
29	Case Keenum	DEN	30	254	1848	8	9	17	117	5.48	-264
30	Sam Darnold	NYJ	21	221	1552	10	10	16	99	5.08	-327
31	Marcus Mariota	TEN	25	150	1030	3	5	19	110	4.47	-336
32	Josh Rosen	ARI	21	129	820	3	5	13	94	3.95	-356
33	Josh Allen	BUF	22	139	832	2	5	21	167	3	-553
	Lg Avg			7682	57632	374	190	538	3489	6.46	0

At this point, I wouldn’t split hairs over remarkable numbers vs. otherworldly numbers. The big question will be which quarterbacks can maintain their ridiculous pace.

Tagged as: Weekly ANY/A

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