Previously:
Philadelphia “upset” the Bills on Sunday, in a game that you would have been more likely to get right if you had been in a coma for the last three months. Buffalo was a 1-point favorite, but in the pre-season, the Eagles were a 3-point favorite for this game. But the biggest story in Philadelphia isn’t that Carson Wentz is having a breakout season: it’s that the Eagles are not relying on his arm very much.
The Eagles and Bills played a competitive game, and yet Philadelphia finished with 38 runs (excluding kneels) and just 27 pass attempts. Three of those runs were Wentz scrambles, but make no mistake: this was a run-happy game from Philadelphia. The Saints played a similar game (from a Game Scripts perspective) against Arizona and passed on about 3 out of every 5 plays, while the Eagles ran on about 3 out of every 5 plays. A week ago, the Eagles were also really run-happy against the Cowboys, and it appears to be part of a new trend. The Eagles are 4-4 and have very siilar points and yards numbers on both offense and defense, so they are a very good example of a neutral Game Script team. And yet Philadelphia ranks 8th in rushing attempts and 19th in pass attempts.
There’s nothing inherently wrong with being a run-heavy team (okay, maybe there is), but it certainly is odd given Philadelphia’s allocation of resources in building its roster. Carson Wentz signed a four year, $128 million extension with the Eagles this summer. Meanwhile, the Eagles acquired Jordan Howard for a 6th round pick and are paying him $2M this season; he leads the team in carries, while 2019 2nd round pick Miles Sanders has also been a big part of the ground approach. The Eagles have a lot of cap room tied up in Nelson Agholor, Alshon Jeffery, and Zach Ertz, and it’s hard to imagine Philadelphia having a successful season without the team’s passing attack leading the way. So far this season, the Eagles have the fifth-lowest pass rate on early downs in neutral situations, which doesn’t make a lot of sense given this roster construction.
The table below shows the Game Scripts data from week 8. The 49ers had the blowout of the week, posting an 18.3 Game Script against Carolina.
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFO | CAR | Boxscore | 51 | 13 | 38 | 18.3 | 25 | 38 | 39.7% | 44 | 19 | 69.8% | |
| NWE | CLE | Boxscore | 27 | 13 | 14 | 11.1 | 39 | 27 | 59.1% | 36 | 22 | 62.1% | |
| SEA | @ | ATL | Boxscore | 27 | 20 | 7 | 10.8 | 22 | 33 | 40% | 54 | 17 | 76.1% |
| JAX | NYJ | Boxscore | 29 | 15 | 14 | 8.1 | 36 | 34 | 51.4% | 38 | 14 | 73.1% | |
| LAR | CIN | Boxscore | 24 | 10 | 14 | 7.9 | 31 | 26 | 54.4% | 56 | 22 | 71.8% | |
| DET | NYG | Boxscore | 31 | 26 | 5 | 6.9 | 36 | 25 | 59% | 44 | 24 | 64.7% | |
| NOR | ARI | Boxscore | 31 | 9 | 22 | 5.8 | 42 | 29 | 59.2% | 38 | 11 | 77.6% | |
| MIN | WAS | Boxscore | 19 | 9 | 10 | 4.9 | 29 | 38 | 43.3% | 25 | 16 | 61% | |
| PHI | @ | BUF | Boxscore | 31 | 13 | 18 | 4.6 | 27 | 40 | 40.3% | 38 | 20 | 65.5% |
| GNB | @ | KAN | Boxscore | 31 | 24 | 7 | 3.5 | 37 | 26 | 58.7% | 39 | 20 | 66.1% |
| TEN | TAM | Boxscore | 27 | 23 | 4 | 1.8 | 36 | 21 | 63.2% | 46 | 30 | 60.5% | |
| LAC | @ | CHI | Boxscore | 17 | 16 | 1 | -2.7 | 30 | 12 | 71.4% | 39 | 38 | 50.6% |
| IND | DEN | Boxscore | 15 | 13 | 2 | -2.7 | 29 | 31 | 48.3% | 35 | 28 | 55.6% | |
| HOU | OAK | Boxscore | 27 | 24 | 3 | -2.7 | 42 | 32 | 56.8% | 30 | 23 | 56.6% | |
| PIT | MIA | Boxscore | 27 | 14 | 13 | -3 | 38 | 29 | 56.7% | 38 | 19 | 66.7% |
The most pass-happy team of the week was Arizona. A week ago against the Giants, Chase Edmonds had a breakout performance. He had no such luck against the Saints, carrying 7 times for just 8 yards. The Saints dominated time of possession in the first half, holding the ball for over 20 minutes; by the second half, Arizona was in catch-up mode. The Cardinals finished with a 77% pass ratio, which includes two runs by Kyler Murray. Unfortunately for Arizona, Murray wasn’t very good, throwing for only 8 first downs on 36 dropbacks.
Finally, a note on the Steelers/Dolphins game. Pittsburgh won by 13 points, but finished with a negative Game Script! That’s pretty rare, and a fun example of why I like to use Game Scripts data in conjunction with typical box score data. This was one of those rare games where one team jumped out to an early lead but still lost by two scores. In fact, this was the first time since 2016 that a team led by 13+ points after the first quarter, and wound up losing by 13 or more points.
I will give credit to Pittsburgh for “not giving up on the run” in this game. Pittsburgh’s 57% pass ratio is actually a bit run-heavy for a team with a negative 3.0 Game Script, but this wasn’t a case where the Steelers passed to come back and then ran out the clock. The Steelers generally stuck with the ground game throughout, other than the two minute drill to end the first half.
What stands out to you?