Previously:
In week 8 — which was nearly two weeks ago, my apologies — there were three teams that really leaned on the ground game. Buffalo never led by more than 8 points against New England, and the game was very close throughout. Despite this, the Bills ran on two-thirds of their plays. Buffalo running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss carried 28 times for 167 yards and two touchdowns, while Josh Allen struggled most of the day as a passer. And, as you might have guessed, Allen contributed as a runner: he had three scrambles for 24 yards and three more designed runs (he finished with 10 carries on the day, owing to four kneels). But a 2-to-1 run/pass ratio in a 3-point win is almost unheard of in the modern era, absent crazy weather or a running quarterback. Had I published this article on time, I could have had scathing criticism for Allen as a passer or the Bills offensive design, but in week 9, the Bills went super pass-heavy and won(more on this later in the week). So consider this a one-week anomaly, or a reaction to the Patriots defense (or both).
For the Raiders, the game was even tighter: Las Vegas had a Game Script of just +1.8, although weather here was the big factor. Swirling winds in Cleveland really dictated the flow of the game: Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield combined for just 99 Air Yards. Vegas leaned heavily on Josh Jacobs, who had 31 carries, tied for the most by any player in a game this season. Carr also had 4 scrambles, but I don’t think we can learn much from this game other than that wind really impacts a passing game. As an aside, that’s something worth keeping in mind when we think about older players (say, who played at Shea Stadium or Lambeau Field): in the modern NFL, thanks to dome stadiums and expansion into warm-weather cities, very few games are played in bad conditions. But it wasn’t at all unusual for quarterbacks prior to the ’80s to play a substantial amount of games in bad weather.
Finally, we have the Vikings and Dalvin Cook, who has emerged as the top running back in the NFL. Minnesota ran on 69% of their plays against the Packers in week 8 despite allowing 22 points. A super run-heavy game like this almost always only happens when the other team can’t score; in fact, there have been just two other games in the last 10 years like it: a 26-carry game by Lamar Jackson in 2018 and a Chicago/Baltimore game in 2017 featuring Mitch Trubisky’s second start under John Fox. I wrote about those games here and here. Cook also had 71 yards of YAC as a receiver, notable on a day when Minnesota had just 29 Air Yards and 131 yards after the catch through the air.
The full week 8 Game Scripts, below:
| Team | H/R | Opp | Boxscore | PF | PA | Margin | Game Script | Pass | Run | P/R Ratio | Op_P | Op_R | Opp_P/R Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAN | NYJ | Boxscore | 35 | 9 | 26 | 18.5 | 47 | 19 | 71.2% | 31 | 25 | 55.4% | |
| MIA | LAR | Boxscore | 28 | 17 | 11 | 9 | 23 | 25 | 47.9% | 63 | 29 | 68.5% | |
| SEA | SFO | Boxscore | 37 | 27 | 10 | 8.4 | 39 | 28 | 58.2% | 44 | 21 | 67.7% | |
| CIN | TEN | Boxscore | 31 | 20 | 11 | 7.2 | 37 | 32 | 53.6% | 31 | 29 | 51.7% | |
| IND | @ | DET | Boxscore | 41 | 21 | 20 | 5.5 | 36 | 39 | 48% | 47 | 14 | 77% |
| BUF | NWE | Boxscore | 24 | 21 | 3 | 3.7 | 19 | 38 | 33.3% | 27 | 34 | 44.3% | |
| MIN | @ | GNB | Boxscore | 28 | 22 | 6 | 3.5 | 15 | 34 | 30.6% | 42 | 24 | 63.6% |
| PHI | DAL | Boxscore | 23 | 9 | 14 | 1.9 | 32 | 26 | 55.2% | 44 | 34 | 56.4% | |
| LVR | @ | CLE | Boxscore | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1.8 | 26 | 45 | 36.6% | 25 | 22 | 53.2% |
| ATL | @ | CAR | Boxscore | 25 | 17 | 8 | 1.3 | 32 | 36 | 47.1% | 30 | 22 | 57.7% |
| NOR | @ | CHI | Boxscore | 26 | 23 | 3 | 0.7 | 42 | 30 | 58.3% | 46 | 23 | 66.7% |
| PIT | @ | BAL | Boxscore | 28 | 24 | 4 | -0.5 | 34 | 17 | 66.7% | 32 | 47 | 40.5% |
| TAM | @ | NYG | Boxscore | 25 | 23 | 2 | -1.4 | 42 | 24 | 63.6% | 45 | 24 | 65.2% |
| DEN | LAC | Boxscore | 31 | 30 | 1 | -4.3 | 43 | 16 | 72.9% | 46 | 38 | 54.8% |
One team stood out as super pass-heavy, and it’s the team that should. The Kansas City Chiefs have the most efficient quarterback in NFL history in Patrick Mahomes, and there’s no reason for them to take their feet off the gas. The Chiefs led by double digits at halftime, more than two touchdowns after three quarters, and won by more than three touchdowns. Despite this, Kansas City passed on over 70% of their plays!
This is very rare. The first time it happened was back in 1991, under the run-n-shoot Lions, who — despite the presence of a certain Hall of Fame running back — ran 16 times and passed 38 in a 38-6 win over the Cowboys in the playoffs. And in between that game and the Chiefs win in week 8, it only happened six other times: including one game featuring Andy Reid and one week 17 game featuring a team that was trying to run up the score to make the playoffs.