I’ve already said my piece about the Falcons; with their remaining schedule, we should expect 5 or 6 more wins more than 50% of the time. Right now, the odds of them landing on “5” and “6” are almost identical, but that assumes independence; since they might bench players (or suffer injuries), 13 wins still feels like the best projection for them.
Advanced NFL Stats continues to love the Panthers; after their victory over the Redskins, perhaps they’re going to have a second-half surge? The most head-scratching result from Football Outsiders is probably their sixth-place ranking of the Seahawks, just in time for the Jets to visit. If that game doesn’t start the Tim Tebow era, I don’t know what will.
One thing Burke, Schatz, and the SRS Standings agree on is that the Chiefs are the 32nd best team. Sorry, Jason, but even he agrees.
[As always, the number of wins I’m projecting each team to finish the season with is in column 3. The fourth column – PWIN – shows how many wins I projected last week, and the difference column represents how many wins I added or subtracted this week. The “RSOS” column stands for the remaining SOS for the team, based on the number of projected wins I’m giving to each of their opponents. The “RHG” column stands for remaining home games.]
Team | Rec | Wins | PrvWin | Diff | RemSOS | RemHG | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Falcons | 8-0 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.445 | 4 | There are nits to pick, but an 8-0 start positions them well to quiet the doubters. |
Houston Texans | 7-1 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0.508 | 3 | Great matchup with the Bears this week, but Houston is going to get the #1 seed either way. |
San Francisco 49ers | 6-2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.516 | 4 | At this point, San Francisco seems very likely to get the 2 seed. Will be interesting to see how Harbaugh treats the end of the season. |
Chicago Bears | 7-1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0.563 | 4 | Dominant defense but they have a brutal remaining schedule. If they lose to the Packers, they may drop from a bye to the 5 seed. |
Denver Broncos | 5-3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0.359 | 4 | As a matter of principle, projecting a team to finish 7-1 is never advised. But this seems to be a good place to make an exception. |
New England Patriots | 5-3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.531 | 5 | Can Aqib Talib make a difference on this defense? |
Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | Streaking Packers head into the bye week on a four-game winning streak. |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0.406 | 5 | I have been a big Ben Roethlisberger fan all season, and will continue to get burned by believing in this team. |
New York Giants | 6-3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 0.527 | 3 | Even with a difficult schedule, the typical Giants second-half collapse shouldn't cost them much in a watered down NFC East. |
Baltimore Ravens | 6-2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.539 | 4 | Nobody wins uglier than the Ravens. |
Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0.509 | 4 | Russell Wilson on the road in a playoff game is not going to be pretty, especially when it's at Lambeau or Soldier Field. |
Indianapolis Colts | 5-3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0.492 | 3 | They are looking at a first round game in Foxboro or Mile High. Think there will be some storylines there? |
Miami Dolphins | 4-4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.508 | 5 | The Dolphins have been burned with some ugly fourth quarter performances; they've lost two games in overtime and were tied late in the 4th quarter against the Colts. |
Dallas Cowboys | 3-5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0.406 | 5 | Even with an easy schedule, the Cowboys have a lot of ground to make up to win the division or beat the Seahawks out for a playoff berth. |
Minnesota Vikings | 5-4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 0.643 | 3 | Sell. Sell. SELL! |
San Diego Chargers | 4-4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.500 | 4 | Wins over the Chiefs should be treated like FCS victories. |
Detroit Lions | 4-4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.641 | 5 | The remaining schedule is brutal; the Lions are streaking, but they dug themselves an enormous hole. |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.547 | 4 | Can they be the team to end the Falcons perfect season? |
New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0.586 | 4 | They'll need a miracle to make the playoffs, but ruining the Falcons perfect season is a decent consolation prize. |
Philadelphia Eagles | 3-5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 0.445 | 4 | They are the worst team in the NFC, previously unthinkable under Andy Reid. |
Washington Redskins | 3-6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 0.464 | 4 | The breakout team of 2013. |
Arizona Cardinals | 4-5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 0.580 | 3 | Did you know the Arizona Cardinals are 11-7 in their last 18 games? |
Cincinnati Bengals | 3-5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 0.477 | 4 | Is Marvin Lewis ever going to be on a hot seat? |
Oakland Raiders | 3-5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 0.430 | 4 | Nobody racks up meaningless numbers like Carson Palmer. |
New York Jets | 3-5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.430 | 3 | Will Tim Tebow play this week? If not, maybe the Jets can give Greg McElroy some playing time. |
St. Louis Rams | 3-5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.508 | 3 | The second half of the season may tell us a lot about the future of Sam Bradford. |
Tennessee Titans | 3-6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | An embarrassing performance against the Bears. |
Buffalo Bills | 3-5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.492 | 5 | This has to be the last 8 games of the Chan Gailey era, right? |
Carolina Panthers | 2-6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0.477 | 4 | With an easy schedule, they should build some momentum for next year. |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.516 | 4 | Can Blaine Gabbert show over the next 8 weeks that he deserves to be the quarterback of the future? |
Cleveland Browns | 2-7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.509 | 3 | Gritty performances against Baltimore but two losses in the standings. |
Kansas City Chiefs | 1-7 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0.516 | 4 | May be headed for the worst season in franchise history. |