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The Tide escaped Baton Rouge with a win and its playoff goals in sight

The Tide escaped Baton Rouge with a win and its playoff goals in sight.

The playoff picture is beginning to emerge. With most teams having just three games left in the college football regular season, we get a sense of the task ahead for the college football playoff committee. And, unfortunately, it feels as though the committee is going to use some variation of the following logic:

Step 1: Rank teams in ascending order by losses

Step 2: Rank teams by some combination of eye test and recency of last loss

There are still three undefeated teams: Mississippi State, Florida State, and Marshall. MSU and FSU seem likely to take the top 2 spots, and there does not appear to be much thought given to the process other than that. Marshall is not in the conversation, and for good reason: they have a bottom three strength of schedule according to the SRS (you can sort by SOS in the table below).

Mississippi State still ranks just 7th in the SRS, but remember, that’s a predictive ranking. I would put the Bulldogs atop my mythical rankings for playoff purposes, too. But Florida State? FSU has three notable wins on its resume, and none of them were in convincing fashion. Those wins came against Clemson (#25), Notre Dame (#31), and Louisville (#32), and one would think that the 2nd best team in the country would defeat those teams more convincingly. Regardless, as defending champions and riding a 25-game winning streak, nobody will argue against the Seminoles.

But the next two spots? That’s where the debate begins. Ignoring 9-1 Colorado State (very soft strength of schedule), 8-1 Duke (same), and 8-1 Nebraska (only one win — against SRS #23 Miami — against an SRS top-65 team), there are 6 teams with one loss that seem likely to take the #3 through #8 spots in the next edition of the playoff rankings. A best guess as to where those teams land on Tuesday:

  • #3 Oregon – the Ducks ranked 4th last week, and won in convincing fashion at Utah in week 11, while #3 Auburn slipped at home against Texas A&M.
  • #4 Alabama – a chance the Tide move ahead of Oregon because of a “big win” against a high-profile opponent in LSU. Will the committee penalize Alabama for needing overtime to beat LSU, or praise Alabama because by virtue of the game going to overtime it means LSU is a really good team (This, of course, is known as SEC country logic)?
  • #5 TCU – the Horned Frogs were 6th last week, and handled Kansas State, which ranked 7th in the rankings last week. Could TCU jump Alabama or Oregon? After all, #6 beating #7 should count more than beating #16 (LSU in last week’s rankings) or #17 (Utah), but don’t hold your breath for a team like TCU getting a wave of momentum. In fact, we might even see the Horned Frogs drop, because…
  • #6 Baylor – the Bears demolished Oklahoma in Norman in week 11. And Baylor defeated TCU back in week seven. The committee is supposed to value head-to-head, but does that mean Baylor should be ranked ahead of TCU? That argument would hold more weight, at least to me, if Baylor hadn’t lost by 14 points to West Virginia, a team that TCU happened to beat. If West Virginia had just one conference loss, Baylor, TCU, and West Virginia would all be tied and be 1-1 in the three-team round robin; instead, crediting Baylor for West Virginia losing other conference games somehow makes that Baylor loss… better? I don’t follow that logic, but who knows what the committee will do. Frankly, choosing between the top two Big 12 teams is an exercise in hair splitting. Will the recency of Baylor’s loss be held against the Bears vis-a-vis TCU? That sounds silly, but Baylor dropped below TCU after losing to West Virginia, and perhaps the Bears will never rise above them again.
  • #7 Arizona State – the Sun Devils crushed Notre Dame, and were ranked ahead of Baylor last week. Perhaps ASU will remain in the 6 spot, but frankly, the committee can punt on this question. If Arizona State and Oregon both win out, the Pac-12 championship game will turn into a de facto play-in game for the college football playoffs. Arizona State lost by 25 points to UCLA — will that weigh on the committee’s mind in choosing among the 1-loss teams? ASU’s best wins are against USC, Utah, Notre Dame, and Stanford, which still leaves a bit to be desired.
  • #8 Ohio State – just a guess, but the assumption here is the committee puts OSU in the 8 slot this week. Ohio State convincingly defeated Michigan State this week, easily the most impressive performance by the Buckeyes this year. But a home loss to Virginia Tech looks terrible in retrospect, and OSU’s second best win was against… Maryland? Penn State? Cincinnati? If Ohio State is ranked in the top 8 this week, it’s a sign that the committee is basically operating on 4th grade level. First, rank the team by losses, then….

When we go to the 2-loss teams, Auburn and Ole Miss stand out. The Tigers in particular deserve to be ahead of both Ohio State and Arizona State, in my opinion, and Auburn’s resume would only get stronger with road wins against Georgia and Alabama. Auburn has defeated Ole Miss, LSU, and Kansas State, wit two of those games coming on the road. If going 3-2 in five games that are @Ole Miss, vs. LSU, @KSU, @Mississippi State, and vs. Texas A&M supposed to be less impressive than going 4-1 @Michigan State, vs. Virginia Tech, @Maryland, @Penn State, and vs. Cincinnati? I am not buying that logic at all, and that still ignores Auburn’s wins against Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, and South Carolina, teams that all rate as tougher than Penn State and Cincinnati.

As for Ole Miss, the Rebels went 3-2 vs. Alabama, @Auburn, @LSU, vs. Texas A&M, and vs. Tennessee. Is it clear that such a record is worse than going 4-1 vs. UCLA, @Southern Cal, vs. Utah, vs. Notre Dame, and vs. Stanford? And Ole Miss still has a chance to pad its resume with a win on the road against Mississippi State.

If the committee is using strength of schedule solely as a tiebreaker after sorting teams by losses, [1]You know, after eliminating Marshall, Colorado State, Duke, and Nebraska for strength of schedule., then shame on the committee. The table below shows the week 11 college football SRS ratings, with Alabama now moving into the top spot. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs. Some more playoff thoughts about the jump:

RkTeamConfConf RkGMOVSOSSRSREC
1AlabamaSEC1917.447.464.88-1
2MississippiSEC21018.245.463.68-2
3TCUB121920.742.763.48-1
4AuburnSEC3912.350.963.17-2
5BaylorB122923.43861.48-1
6OregonP1211018.742.761.49-1
7Mississippi StSEC4917.54158.59-0
8GeorgiaSEC5915.942.558.47-2
9OklahomaB123910.847.558.36-3
10Ohio StateB101919.638.357.98-1
11LSUSEC61010.146.756.87-3
12Kansas StB124912.943.756.67-2
13Michigan StB102916.439.956.47-2
14NebraskaB103917.336.854.28-1
15Florida StACC1915.338.8549-0
16UCLAP122107.246.253.48-2
17WisconsinB104917.435.853.27-2
18Southern CalP123911.541.653.16-3
19Arizona StP124911.240.952.28-1
20Texas A&MSEC7108.443.451.87-3
21FloridaSEC885.945.251.25-3
22TennesseeSEC990.250.8514-5
23Miami FLACC2910.240.750.96-3
24Georgia TechACC31012.238.750.88-2
25ClemsonACC4910.74050.77-2
26MarshallCUSA1926.923.550.49-0
27West VirginiaB125105.844.650.46-4
28ArkansasSEC1097.442.950.24-5
29ArizonaP12599.940.350.27-2
30UtahP12696.743.149.86-3
31Notre DameInd198.141.449.57-2
32LouisvilleACC51011.937.749.57-3
33DukeACC6915.733.849.48-1
34MissouriSEC1198.840.2497-2
35StanfordP12796.84046.85-4
36Louisiana TechCUSA21010.535.646.17-3
37MinnesotaB10597.73845.67-2
38MemphisAmer1912.232.744.96-3
39Boise StMWC197.83744.77-2
40TexasB126100.144.144.25-5
41Virginia TechACC791.942.1444-5
42Colorado StMWC21011.332.343.59-1
43WashingtonP12810439.543.46-4
44MarylandB10693.439.943.46-3
45South CarolinaSEC129-0.443.743.34-5
46Boston CollegeACC8104.438.342.76-4
47Utah StMWC3108.134.242.37-3
48Brigham YoungInd294.137.841.85-4
49VirginiaACC910-0.542.241.74-6
50KentuckySEC1310-0.241.741.65-5
51IowaB10794.337.241.56-3
52Arkansas StSun199.132.241.26-3
53CaliforniaP12990.540.641.15-4
54East CarolinaAmer2811.629.340.96-2
55Georgia SouthernSun21017.922.1408-2
56Oklahoma StB1279-1.841.739.95-4
57PittsburghACC1092.137.739.84-5
58NevadaMWC494.235.439.66-3
59Penn StateB10892.237.239.55-4
60MichiganB109100.139.339.35-5
61CincinnatiAmer384.534.5395-3
62North CarolinaACC119-4.842.637.94-5
63Central FloridaAmer483.533.837.35-3
64Washington StP121010-5.142.237.13-7
65SyracuseACC1210-5.942.736.93-7
66HoustonAmer597.129.536.65-4
67NorthwesternB10109-4.941.436.63-6
68Western MichiganMAC19927.536.56-3
69PurdueB101110-7.343.536.23-7
70North Carolina StACC1310-2.738.7365-5
71TempleAmer696.429.235.75-4
72ToledoMAC292.232.8356-3
73RiceCUSA394.330.634.96-3
74RutgersB10129-3.938.534.75-4
75NavyInd390.833.834.64-5
76Louisiana-LafayetteSun392.431.934.36-3
77IllinoisB10139-7.942.134.24-5
78Air ForceMWC599.724.434.17-2
79Iowa StB1289-11.945.533.62-7
80Oregon StP12119-3.336.833.54-5
81Alabama-BirminghamCUSA4101.631.833.45-5
82ColoradoP121210-942.333.42-8
83Central MichiganMAC3104.32933.36-4
84IndianaB10149-6.339.433.23-6
85Western KentuckyCUSA59-0.132.432.34-5
86UTEPCUSA690.531.632.15-4
87Texas TechB1299-11.443.331.93-6
88Northern IllinoisMAC495.925.731.67-2
89Middle Tennessee StCUSA790.131.431.45-4
90WyomingMWC610-6.637.731.14-6
91San José StMWC79-3.734.430.83-6
92San Diego StMWC892.827.330.15-4
93KansasB12109-9.939.829.93-6
94Bowling GreenMAC590.528.729.26-3
95Fresno StMWC910-5.934.828.94-6
96South AlabamaSun49-1.429.828.45-4
97Florida Int'lCUSA810-3.531.728.23-7
98VanderbiltSEC1410-13.141.128.13-7
99AkronMAC69-0.127.827.74-5
100Ball StMAC79-2.329.927.63-6
101Hawai`iMWC1010-9.537.127.62-8
102Florida AtlanticCUSA910-9.236.727.53-7
103Texas-San AntonioCUSA109-8.435.627.12-7
104TulaneAmer79-8.935.826.93-6
105Louisiana-MonroeSun59-7.23426.93-6
106Wake ForestACC149-10.236.626.42-7
107Texas St-San MarcosSun692.124.126.25-4
108Appalachian StSun792.923.226.14-5
109Ohio U.MAC810-4.630.5265-5
110MassachusettsMAC99-3.828.925.12-7
111New MexicoMWC119-6.731.524.83-6
112South FloridaAmer89-9.934.524.63-6
113Southern MissCUSA1110-14.238.824.63-7
114North TexasCUSA129-3.927.823.83-6
115Old DominionCUSA1310-6.228.922.84-6
116ConnecticutAmer99-10.432.3222-7
117Miami OHMAC1010-9.931.421.52-8
118TulsaAmer109-12.433.521.12-7
119BuffaloMAC119-4.32520.73-6
120ArmyInd49-7.727.820.23-6
121Kent StMAC129-12.931.9191-8
122IdahoSun89-11.630.318.71-8
123New Mexico StSun910-11.128.917.82-8
124TroySun1010-13.63117.52-8
125UNLVMWC1210-15.63216.42-8
126SMUAmer118-29.143.314.20-8
127Georgia StSun1110-16.729.913.31-9
128Eastern MichiganMAC139-1931.112.12-7

Finally, here are the SRS ratings from each game in week 11. The top performance goes to Baylor, who throttled Oklahoma in Norman by 24 points. TCU’s blowout of Kansas State also finished in the top 3, so the race for the top team in the Big 12 (in the committee’s eye) is still very tight. Oregon, which benefited from a crazy 14-point swing in Utah, wound up winning by 24 on the road, giving the Ducks the 2nd best game of the week.

DateTm_ConfPFOppPAH/RW/LDiffMOVOpp_ConfSOSSRS
11-08-2014Baylor_B1248Oklahoma14RoadWin3430.5B1258.388.8
11-08-2014Oregon_P1251Utah27RoadWin2425.5P1249.875.3
11-08-2014TCU_B1241Kansas St20HomeWin2118B1256.674.6
11-08-2014Ohio State_B1049Michigan St37RoadWin1215B1056.471.4
11-08-2014Georgia_SEC63Kentucky31RoadWin3229.5SEC41.671.1
11-08-2014Minnesota_B1051Iowa14HomeWin3729B1041.570.5
11-08-2014Arizona St_P1255Notre Dame31HomeWin2421Ind49.570.5
11-08-2014Texas A&M_SEC41Auburn38RoadWin37SEC63.170.1
11-08-2014Alabama_SEC20LSU13RoadWin710SEC56.866.8
11-08-2014Georgia Tech_ACC56North Carolina St23RoadWin3330ACC3666
11-08-2014Louisville_ACC38Boston College19RoadWin1922ACC42.764.7
11-08-2014Texas_B1233West Virginia16HomeWin1714B1250.464.4
11-08-2014Marshall_CUSA63Southern Miss17RoadWin4636.5CUSA24.661.1
11-08-2014UCLA_P1244Washington30RoadWin1417P1243.460.4
11-08-2014Wisconsin_B1034Purdue16RoadWin1821B1036.257.2
11-08-2014Duke_ACC27Syracuse10RoadWin1720ACC36.856.8
11-08-2014Arkansas St_Sun45South Alabama10HomeWin3528Sun28.456.4
11-08-2014LSU_SEC13Alabama20HomeLoss-7-10SEC64.854.8
11-08-2014Florida_SEC34Vanderbilt10RoadWin2425.5SEC28.153.6
11-08-2014Florida St_ACC34Virginia20HomeWin1411ACC41.752.7
11-08-2014Louisiana Tech_CUSA40Alabama-Birmingham24RoadWin1619CUSA33.452.4
11-08-2014Colorado St_MWC49Hawai`i22HomeWin2724MWC27.651.6
11-07-2014Utah St_MWC20Wyoming3RoadWin1720MWC31.151.1
11-08-2014Kansas_B1234Iowa St14HomeWin2017B1233.650.6
11-08-2014Mississippi_SEC48Presbyterian0HomeWin4834.5fcs14.749.2
11-08-2014Arizona_P1238Colorado20HomeWin1815P1233.448.4
11-04-2014Bowling Green_MAC27Akron10RoadWin1720MAC27.747.7
11-08-2014Tulane_Amer31Houston24RoadWin710Amer36.646.6
11-08-2014North Texas_CUSA31Florida Atlantic10HomeWin2118CUSA27.545.5
11-08-2014Kansas St_B1220TCU41RoadLoss-21-18B1263.445.4
11-08-2014Louisiana-Lafayette_Sun44New Mexico St16RoadWin2827.5Sun17.845.3
11-08-2014Auburn_SEC38Texas A&M41HomeLoss-3-7SEC51.844.8
11-05-2014Northern Illinois_MAC35Ball St21RoadWin1417MAC27.644.6
11-08-2014Mississippi St_SEC45Tennessee-Martin16HomeWin2925fcs19.244.2
11-08-2014Michigan_B1010Northwestern9RoadWin17B1036.643.6
11-08-2014Washington St_P1239Oregon St32RoadWin710P1233.543.5
11-08-2014Air Force_MWC48UNLV21RoadWin2727MWC16.443.4
11-06-2014Clemson_ACC34Wake Forest20RoadWin1417ACC26.443.4
11-08-2014Virginia_ACC20Florida St34RoadLoss-14-11ACC5443
11-08-2014Michigan St_B1037Ohio State49HomeLoss-12-15B1057.942.9
11-07-2014Memphis_Amer16Temple13RoadWin37Amer35.742.7
11-08-2014Penn State_B1013Indiana7RoadWin69B1033.242.2
11-08-2014Fresno St_MWC38San José St24HomeWin1411MWC30.841.8
11-05-2014Ohio U._MAC37Buffalo14HomeWin2320MAC20.740.7
11-08-2014Western Kentucky_CUSA35UTEP27HomeWin87CUSA32.139.1
11-08-2014Boise St_MWC60New Mexico49RoadWin1114MWC24.838.8
11-07-2014Temple_Amer13Memphis16HomeLoss-3-7Amer44.937.9
11-08-2014Washington_P1230UCLA44HomeLoss-14-17P1253.436.4
11-08-2014Army_Ind35Connecticut21NeutWin1414Amer2236
11-08-2014Utah_P1227Oregon51HomeLoss-24-25.5P1261.435.9
11-08-2014Colorado_P1220Arizona38RoadLoss-18-15P1250.235.2
11-08-2014Troy_Sun45Georgia St21HomeWin2421Sun13.334.3
11-08-2014Rice_CUSA17Texas-San Antonio7HomeWin107CUSA27.134.1
11-06-2014Wake Forest_ACC20Clemson34HomeLoss-14-17ACC50.733.7
11-08-2014Georgia Southern_Sun28Texas St-San Marcos25RoadWin37Sun26.233.2
11-08-2014Texas St-San Marcos_Sun25Georgia Southern28HomeLoss-3-7Sun4033
11-08-2014Northwestern_B109Michigan10HomeLoss-1-7B1039.332.3
11-08-2014Purdue_B1016Wisconsin34HomeLoss-18-21B1053.232.2
11-04-2014Toledo_MAC30Kent St20RoadWin1013MAC1932
11-08-2014Notre Dame_Ind31Arizona St55RoadLoss-24-21P1252.231.2
11-08-2014Oklahoma_B1214Baylor48HomeLoss-34-30.5B1261.430.9
11-08-2014New Mexico_MWC49Boise St60HomeLoss-11-14MWC44.730.7
11-08-2014Indiana_B107Penn State13HomeLoss-6-9B1039.430.4
11-08-2014West Virginia_B1216Texas33RoadLoss-17-14B1244.230.2
11-08-2014San Diego St_MWC35Idaho21HomeWin1411Sun18.729.7
11-08-2014Syracuse_ACC10Duke27HomeLoss-17-20ACC49.429.4
11-08-2014Kentucky_SEC31Georgia63HomeLoss-32-29.5SEC58.428.9
11-08-2014Old Dominion_CUSA38Florida Int'l35HomeWin30CUSA28.228.2
11-08-2014Texas-San Antonio_CUSA7Rice17RoadLoss-10-7CUSA34.927.9
11-08-2014Boston College_ACC19Louisville38HomeLoss-19-22ACC49.527.5
11-08-2014Oregon St_P1232Washington St39HomeLoss-7-10P1237.127.1
11-08-2014Alabama-Birmingham_CUSA24Louisiana Tech40HomeLoss-16-19CUSA46.127.1
11-08-2014Appalachian St_Sun31Louisiana-Monroe29HomeWin20Sun26.926.9
11-08-2014Louisiana-Monroe_Sun29Appalachian St31RoadLoss-20Sun26.126.1
11-08-2014Vanderbilt_SEC10Florida34HomeLoss-24-25.5SEC51.225.7
11-08-2014UTEP_CUSA27Western Kentucky35RoadLoss-8-7CUSA32.325.3
11-08-2014Florida Int'l_CUSA35Old Dominion38RoadLoss-30CUSA22.822.8
11-07-2014Wyoming_MWC3Utah St20HomeLoss-17-20MWC42.322.3
11-04-2014Kent St_MAC20Toledo30HomeLoss-10-13MAC3522
11-08-2014Tulsa_Amer38SMU28HomeWin107Amer14.221.2
11-08-2014North Carolina St_ACC23Georgia Tech56HomeLoss-33-30ACC50.820.8
11-08-2014Hawai`i_MWC22Colorado St49RoadLoss-27-24MWC43.519.5
11-08-2014Idaho_Sun21San Diego St35RoadLoss-14-11MWC30.119.1
11-08-2014San José St_MWC24Fresno St38RoadLoss-14-11MWC28.917.9
11-08-2014Houston_Amer24Tulane31HomeLoss-7-10Amer26.916.9
11-08-2014Iowa_B1014Minnesota51RoadLoss-37-29B1045.616.6
11-05-2014Ball St_MAC21Northern Illinois35HomeLoss-14-17MAC31.614.6
11-08-2014SMU_Amer28Tulsa38RoadLoss-10-7Amer21.114.1
11-08-2014Southern Miss_CUSA17Marshall63HomeLoss-46-36.5CUSA50.413.9
11-08-2014South Alabama_Sun10Arkansas St45RoadLoss-35-28Sun41.213.2
11-08-2014Iowa St_B1214Kansas34RoadLoss-20-17B1229.912.9
11-04-2014Akron_MAC10Bowling Green27HomeLoss-17-20MAC29.29.2
11-08-2014UNLV_MWC21Air Force48HomeLoss-27-27MWC34.17.1
11-08-2014New Mexico St_Sun16Louisiana-Lafayette44HomeLoss-28-27.5Sun34.36.8
11-08-2014Connecticut_Amer21Army35NeutLoss-14-14Ind20.26.2
11-05-2014Buffalo_MAC14Ohio U.37RoadLoss-23-20MAC266
11-08-2014Florida Atlantic_CUSA10North Texas31RoadLoss-21-18CUSA23.85.8
11-08-2014Georgia St_Sun21Troy45RoadLoss-24-21Sun17.5-3.5

References

References
1 You know, after eliminating Marshall, Colorado State, Duke, and Nebraska for strength of schedule.
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