Last week, I looked at how the Big 12 schedule was backloaded. There are four top teams in the conference, and the six-game round robin among those teams was placed at the back third of each team’s schedule. So far, just two of those six games have been played: Oklahoma State beat TCU last weekend, and Oklahoma beat Baylor last night. That means the winner in Bedlam in two weeks — which takes place in Stillwater — has a leg up on the rest of the conference. The winner in Bedlam will be the Big 12 champion assuming they win next weekend. Of course, that’s no sure thing, given that next week Oklahoma hosts TCU and Oklahoma State hosts Baylor. And yes, for those keeping score at home, that does mean the Cowboys got home draws against TCU, Baylor, and OU this year.
If the Bedlam winner wins next week, too, they are almost certainly going to make the college football playoff. The only way they don’t is if literally everything here happens:
- Ohio Sate beats Michigan State, Michigan, and wins in the B10 Championship Game
- Notre Dame wins in Boston against Boston College and in Palo Alto against Stanford
- Clemson beats Wake Forest and South Carolina and then wins in the ACC Championship Game
- The winner of the SEC Championship Game wins their in-state rivalry game (UF-FSU and Bama-Auburn)
- The committee decides that Notre Dame is more deserving than the B12 champ.
The odds of that happening would be, by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, under five percent. So while the Big 12 won’t occupy a top four spot in this week’s playoff standings, and may even fail to place a team in the top five, there’s little reason to think the B12 won’t send a team to the playoffs for the second year in a row. That is, unless the Bedlam winner loses at home next week.
Below are the SRS ratings through eleven weeks. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.
As you can see, Oklahoma ranks as the top team in the SRS. If you are curious why, you can see the results of every single FBS game this year at the always-updated NCAA games page at the top of this site. Oklahoma scored a 34.5 for that loss to Texas, but other than a 14-point win over Tulsa, the Sooners have scored a 61 or higher in every game this year. That’s highlighted by a 55-point road win over Kansas State (84.2 SRS rating for that game), 36-point home win over Texas Tech (75.0), 10-point road win at Baylor (71.9), [1]Given Baylor’s quarterback situation, this game is probably not exactly impressive as it looks, but it is still a very quality win. and 36-point home win over Iowa State (70.5).
What about the best wins of the week? That honor belongs to Alabama, who suffered no let down this week. The Crimson Tide obliterated Mississippi State after dominating LSU a week ago. Despite the dynasty being over, Alabama seems to be doing okay.
As always, please leave your questions and comments below.
References
↑1 | Given Baylor’s quarterback situation, this game is probably not exactly impressive as it looks, but it is still a very quality win. |
---|