In many ways, week 9 was an uneventful week of college football. Of the top 18 teams in last week’s SRS, only one lost in week 9. On the surface, the loss by Ole Miss — ranked 2nd in the SRS last week and 3rd in the polls — was a big loss. But as long as the Rebels keep winning, it wasn’t a big deal at all. Ole Miss, like Mississippi State, like Alabama, like Georgia, and like Auburn (more on them later) all control their own destiny for the playoffs. Ole Miss still has to play Auburn, Arkansas, and MSU, so it’s not as though things will be easy for the Rebels; but they do control their own destiny, just as they did a week ago.
Among top-30 SRS teams last week, only three others lost, and in two of those games it was to fellow top-30 teams. Utah (#22 in last week’s SRS) defeated Southern Cal (#19) on a touchdown pass with 8 seconds left, to give the Utes a 24-21 home win. Tennessee (#24 last week) lost at home to Alabama in the Lane Kiffin Bowl. The one real surprise was Virginia Tech (#29) losing 30-6 at home to a Miami team that was just 43rd in the SRS entering week 9.
The table below shows the SRS ratings through nine weeks. Breaking up the SEC West stranglehold at the top is TCU, and the Horned Frogs now lead the nation in scoring. It appears as though style points may not be an issue, so for TCU, the biggest hurdle may just be finishing the year 11-1. For the Horned Frogs, the toughest two games remaining are the next two: at West Virginia next week, and against Kansas State a week later. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs. Some more playoff thoughts about the jump:
You might be wondering how Mississippi State ranks “only” 5th in the SRS, behind four one-loss teams, including three from its own division. It’s mostly due to strength of schedule; and not only has MSU faced an easier schedule than Ole Miss, Alabama, and Auburn, but the Bulldogs’ MOV is lower than than of both Ole Miss and Alabama. Is this a big deal? Of course not. But it’s a reminder that among the top 4 in the SEC West, MSU isn’t any better than the other teams just because it hasn’t suffered a loss yet.
To date, MSU has only faced Auburn among the Big 4; the next two toughest games for the Bulldogs were LSU and A&M. Mississippi State got an easy draw out of the SEC East, but the big games on the schedule (at Alabama, at Ole Miss) still loom. MSU is also “hurt” a bit in these ratings by a 13-point win over UAB; you can argue that such a performance is meaningless, and I don’t think I’d disagree with you. But as a general rule, 13-point wins over the 76th best team in the SRS are not good things, which is why it’s included in the rankings.
As for Auburn… I still support the candidacy of a two-loss Auburn team, much less a one-loss squad. By the end of the year, Auburn will have played:
- at Mississippi (#1 in the SRS)
- at Alabama (#2)
- at Mississippi State (#5)
- at Georgia (#6)
- at Kansas State (#10)
- LSU (#12)
- Texas A&M (#19)
- Arkansas (#22)
That. Is. Insane. Going 6-2 against that schedule (and beating #39 South Carolina) would be an incredible accomplishment. Think about it this way: If they do so, the Tigers would finish with 3 wins against top ten teams… on the road. My guess is Auburn would actually get in with a 10-2 record, but mostly because other top contenders will also fall as the calendar hits November. More likely, the Tigers finish with 1 or 3 losses, making life easier on the playoff committee. But a 2-loss Auburn would arguably still be the best team in the country, if no other team has gone undefeated.
That excludes, of course, Marshall. Unfortunately for the Thundering Herd, 19-point home wins against Florida Atlanta are not going to move the needle. Marshall ranks 25th in the SRS, but it would need to have more style points to really earn consideration for a playoff spot.
One final thought: let’s assume both TCU and Baylor finish the year 11-1. If that’s the case, Baylor will win the Big 12 by virtue of the head-to-head win. Does that mean the committee should pick Baylor over TCU for the playoffs? Or do other factors matter? My vote would be for the latter, but let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Below are the week 9 game results. The top performance of the week came from Wisconsin, as the Badgers blew out a decent Maryland team, 52-7. TCU scored 68 points against Texas Tech… in the first three quarters, finishing with an 82-27 win that was the second best score of the week.
As always, the NCAA Games page has been updated to reflect the week 9 results.